The NFL playoff race is heating up.
The division races aren’t very exciting in the AFC, but we’ve seen some great races in the NFC. The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles are separated by a half-game in the NFC East, but only one game apart in the NFC West overall.
On the other hand, the wild card race between both teams will be interesting. If the season ended today, both the AFC West and NFC North teams would advance to the postseason.
But as Week 9 draws to a close, what does the situation look like? We break it all down below, including percentages, strength of schedule, and more.
Additionally, all playoff odds are based on The Athletic’s model.
1st place: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 7-0, 1st place, AFC West Division
Remaining opponents above .500: 6
Playoff probability: 99%
Kansas City will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home on Monday night, then face the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium six days later.
2nd place: Buffalo Bills
Record: 7 wins, 2 losses, 1st place, AFC East region
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Playoff probability: 99%
It wasn’t a pretty result, but the Bills defeated the Miami Dolphins to win their third division title and a season sweep of Miami. They will next play the Colts in Indianapolis before taking on the Chiefs.
3rd place: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 6 wins, 2 losses, 1st place, AFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Playoff probability: 77%
Pittsburgh must be excited to be on top of the AFC North during the bye week. However, the final nine games include all six divisional games, along with games against the Commanders, Eagles and Chiefs.
4th place: Houston Texans
Record: 6 wins, 3 losses, 1st place, AFC South Division
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Playoff probability: 96%
The Texans are in control of their destiny in the AFC South, but they also have problems. Nico Collins is still out with a hamstring injury, and Stefon Diggs is out for the rest of the year with a torn ACL. Considering the terrible offensive line, Houston may have some shopping to do before Tuesday’s trade deadline.
5th place: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 6 wins, 3 losses, 2nd place, AFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 94%
Baltimore defeated the Broncos and made it to the playoffs. But the Ravens only have a moment to enjoy victory when the Cincinnati Bengals come to town on Thursday night.
6th place: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 5 wins, 3 losses, 2nd place, AFC West Division
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 84%
The Chargers sacked Jameis Winston six times and had three interceptions to crush the Cleveland Browns. Los Angeles’ only quality win came against the Broncos, but for now they’re good enough to clinch a playoff spot.
7th place: Denver Broncos
Record: 5 wins, 4 losses, 3rd place, AFC West Division
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 35%
Denver looked out of place against Baltimore on Sunday. Now, the Broncos have to bounce back before playing the first of two games against the Chiefs in Kansas City.
in the hunt
Indianapolis Colts (4-5): The Colts played at Minnesota on Sunday night and fell short. Next week, they will play the Bills again at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5): Cincinnati easily handled the Las Vegas Raiders after five touchdown passes from Joe Burrow. But a quick week-long trip to Baltimore is coming up.
New York Jets (3-6): The Jets defeated the Texans to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, but the schedule isn’t easy. New York has a long climb ahead of it.
1st place: Detroit Lions
Record: 7-1, 1st place, NFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 99%
Detroit easily took on the Packers and looked like the team the NFC could beat. The Lions will be on the road next weekend to take on the Texans on Sunday Night Football.
2nd place: Washington Commanders
Record: 7 wins, 2 losses, 1st place, NFC East
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 92%
Washington didn’t need a Hail Mary at MetLife Stadium to defeat the New York Giants (who would?). Philadelphia’s victory kept the Commanders with a half-game lead in the NFC East.
3rd place: Atlanta Falcons
Record: 6 wins, 3 losses, 1st place, NFC South
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 93%
Atlanta is starting to distance itself from the Buccaneers in the NFC South. If Tampa Bay loses on Monday night, the Falcons will have a two-game lead with a victory over the Buccaneers already assured in Tampa.
4th place: Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5 wins, 4 losses, 1st place, NFC West
Remaining opponents above .500: 1
Playoff probability: 43%
Who could have predicted something like this would happen? Arizona has won three straight against the Chargers, Dolphins, and Bears, and is firmly in the lead in the NFC West.
5th place: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 6–2, 2nd place, NFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 3
Playoff probability: 84%
Minnesota ended its losing streak at two on Sunday night against the Colts in a shaky game. The Vikings remain one game behind the Lions in the NFC North.
No. 6: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 6–2, 2nd place, NFC East
Remaining opponents above .500: 4
Playoff probability: 95%
Philadelphia hasn’t been very convincing, but they keep winning. The Eagles travel to Dallas for a marquee matchup against the Cowboys, who are currently in a desperate situation at 3-5.
7th place: Green Bay Packers
Record: 6 wins, 3 losses, 3rd place, NFC North
Remaining opponents above .500: 2
Playoff probability: 52%
The Packers had a chance to beat the Lions and make the playoffs. Instead, they were humiliated at home, currently in last place, and looking at a long road back to the NFC North.
in the hunt
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4): Tampa Bay plays the Chiefs on Monday night before returning home to face the 49ers.
Chicago Bears (4-4): It might be time to temper expectations for this Bears team. Chicago suffered a blowout loss to the Cardinals, allowing seven sacks to their mid-major defensive line.
Los Angeles Rams (4-4): After a 1-4 start, the Rams won three straight and suddenly looked like a team that could not only make the playoffs, but would make some noise once they got there.
