On the front lines in Ukraine, soldiers are using American weapons and ammunition to hold off Russian forces. Across the country, American air defense forces protect civilians from Moscow’s missiles and drones.
Therefore, for Ukrainians, the outcome of the US presidential election could be a matter of life and death. Slowing or stopping the weapons pipeline could accelerate Russia’s advance on the Eastern Front in recent months, making hospitals, schools, power plants and homes even more vulnerable.
Although Europe’s political support is essential and its weapons highly valued, the amount provided by the United States in military aid through nearly three years of war exceeded $64 billion, and exceeded the amount provided by all other allies. The total amount exceeds the total amount.
Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to “end wars” and is cutting spending. He has repeatedly tried to block the aid package in Congress and has promised or threatened to force Moscow and Kiev to reach a deal before the U.S. presidential inauguration in January.
President Trump has been vague about the shape of a potential deal, but his running mate, J.D. Vance, said he would maintain de facto control of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia and that Ukraine would withdraw. He proposed a plan that critics described as tantamount to a Russian victory. Outside NATO.
“We are worried about Mr. Trump,” a senior official in Kiev said bluntly. Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump have a shared background in entertainment television, but their relationship has not softened.
In September, Zelensky secured a meeting with Trump in New York to promote Ukraine’s cause, marking the first time the two met face-to-face in five years.
Trump publicly humiliated Ukraine ahead of the meeting by sharing a private message from the Ukrainian leader on social media, and weeks later accused Zelenskiy of starting the war.
In an interview with the Guardian in late May, Zelenskiy acknowledged that he “still doesn’t have a strategy” for what he would do if Trump returned to the White House, but said he believes his appeal to the candidate’s vanity is rooted in The outline of the plan was suggested.
He warned Trump that he risked being labeled a “loser president” if he allowed Russia to win the war. Trump may be able to broker a ceasefire, Zelensky said, but Putin’s track record suggests Russia will eventually break the agreement and move further into Ukraine. , said the US president looked “very bearish.”
With the election just days away, the scenario gives some Ukrainian officials reason to be cautiously optimistic about Trump’s chances of becoming president, and suggests a humiliated president pivots to aiding Ukraine. He said he expects the company to move.
It may be dangerous to bet that Putin and Trump will sabotage their own interests through vanity, hubris, and mutual miscalculation.
But Russia’s willingness to recruit large numbers of troops and send them to the battlefield in large numbers to die is slowly eroding Ukraine’s initial advantage on the battlefield.
The liberation of Kiev and parts of the east and south was rooted in superior military technology, weapons and motivation, but in three years tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops have been killed, wounded or exhausted.
Ukraine has a much smaller population than Russia, those who wish to serve are already in uniform, and as a democracy it suffers from conscription.
“Everyone understands that Trump doesn’t care one bit about Ukraine, and that his presidency is like going to a casino for Ukraine. If you do, you could lose everything,” said an official in Ukraine’s security structure.
“But now everyone is exhausted, and some are willing to make risky bets. Trump is useful to Putin because he can cause chaos, but he can also be useless. “President Putin doesn’t like others to take control,” the source said.
Kamala Harris’ victory will probably be greeted in Kiev with less enthusiasm than a sense of relief that the country faces “not-so-bad” options.
She is expected to be a more predictable opponent than Trump, largely inheriting Joe Biden’s policy approach, but Ukrainians are still trying to gauge her personal position on the conflict.
She has not visited Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, and has met with President Zelensky at least six times during his time as vice president, but usually for messages from Biden rather than to set the agenda. is conveying.
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Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, established a line of communication for Harris with National Security Adviser Philip Gordon and asked where Harris’ positions align with Biden’s. We strengthened cooperation and deepened understanding of the possibility of divergence.
The outgoing president has balanced strong diplomatic support and generous military aid to Kiev with restrictions on the transfer and use of U.S. technology, but this has largely led to an escalation that has infuriated many officials in Kiev. This is because of concerns.
President Putin has repeatedly threatened to deploy Russian nuclear weapons. Although intelligence agencies believe these are not empty threats, U.S. donations to Ukraine have gradually increased over the past three years.
In early 2022, the donation of anti-tank missiles became the focus of military transfers. Ukraine spent three years acquiring cutting-edge parts of the U.S. arsenal, including long-range missiles (though limited for use against targets inside Russia), the Patriot air defense system and F-16 jets provided by European allies. Some of them are accepted.
But critics argue that each authorization to transfer new categories of weapons is too slow and too slow, undermining their effectiveness on the battlefield.
Dissatisfaction with what Ukraine sees as the “drip-drip policy of managed escalation” that characterizes the Biden administration has grown in recent months.
They fear that if it continues under the Harris administration, it could ultimately be as detrimental to Ukraine’s future as the pressure for an immediate deal from the Trump administration.
But U.S. concerns about escalation and longstanding insistence that it carefully weigh the potential consequences of effectively losing to Russia could give it more momentum in the coming months.
“The Chinese, the Indians and, of course, the Russians also see this as an American war,” said a security official in Kiev. “The United States had already suffered a disaster with its withdrawal from Afghanistan. If we lost Ukraine in three years, we would lose all[military credibility].”
Thousands of North Korean soldiers joined Russian forces on the ground this month, in what many see as stark evidence of Kiev’s long-held insistence that the war was not just about Ukraine’s future. I’m watching.
As pressure mounts to start negotiations with Russia, Ukraine believes that voices from the incoming presidential administration, which believes that Washington’s power is tied to the fate of Kiev, are calling for an end to the conflict now, whether in the short or long term. We can only hope that they have more influence than the officials calling for them to do so. -Term costs associated with intermediating transactions with Moscow.
“Ukraine doesn’t have a favorite candidate. Rather, there is a profile of the next U.S. president that Ukrainians want to associate with,” said Alyona Getmanchuk, director of the Center for a New Europe think tank in Kyiv. “The United States remains our primary security provider.
“We want to have a president who is not paralyzed by fear of Putin…Whatever the path to ending the war is, we want to ensure security, first through an invitation to NATO and a meaningful membership process. Who understands what must be done?”
