Political violence could escalate after the next U.S. presidential election, with pro-Trump right-wing vigilante groups called “poll watchers” monitoring ballot boxes as Americans cast their votes, experts warned this week. did.
A new report from the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE) finds disturbing trends in online chatter that mirror patterns observed in the run-up to the 2020 election and the January 6th Capitol riot. I emphasized.
Meanwhile, Princeton’s Bridging Divide Initiative (BDI), which in 2020 spread a false story claiming that Democrats sent paid “mules” to drop off boxes containing thousands of people, True the Published a fact sheet with recommendations for dealing with conspiracy-minded watchdog groups like Vote. Illegal voting to steal the election from Donald Trump.
The twin reports come as a man has been charged in the armed attack on a Democratic Party office and police in Oregon and Washington are investigating a possible arson attack on a ballot box where some ballots were dropped off. The book highlighted risks to elections and strategies to reduce them. Destroyed.
The GPAHE report warns of violent chatter on platforms known to host extremist content, such as Telegram, Gab, Communities.win, and some communities on the decentralized social media network known as Fediverse. Based on increase.
The report shows that while the overall volume of messages on these platforms may be lower than in 2020, the surge in violent rhetoric is following a pattern set in advance of the 2020 election.
For example, in October, violent rhetoric related to election denialism increased by 317% on Telegram, 105% on Gab, 25% on community.win, and 75% across some Fediverse communities.
The report states that across these platforms, users are indulging in violent rhetoric related to election denialism. Some Telegram posts this year have used election denialism to justify calls for violence, including calling for an “inevitable civil war” and encouraging users to “shoot and kill illegal voters.” Some even encouraged them to do so.
On Gab, users threatened suspected election fraudsters with treason and called for “firing squads” and “ropes,” according to the report. The platform calls for “public executions for all fraudulent votes,” the shooting of elected officials labeled “traitors,” and a slew of anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. are.
Communities.win is a collection of forums including The_Donald, who was banned from Reddit in 2020 for hate speech. According to the GPAHE report, Communities.win users have fantasized about a civil war in recent weeks, asserted that the Democratic Party would not relinquish power, and called for a “Great Awakening,” a concept previously popularized by the QAnon conspiracy movement. A violent uprising is necessary.
In the Fediverse community, users shared posts accusing the “liberal media” of inciting “war” and encouraging violence against perceived political opponents.
“Ignoring these worrying trends only risks further acts of violence linked to election denialism and anti-democratic sentiment,” the GPAHE report warned.
Heidi Beirich, co-founder of GPAHE, said: “Our report shows that compared to violent election denial speech in 2020, the numbers have been low so far this year, but “It’s increasing rapidly as we get closer.”
In addition, “unmoderated fringe sites” have seen “an increase in the number of comments containing violent political rhetoric,” and “an increase in posts targeting election officials with violence, and real-world activity has increased.” “This is a sign that it could escalate,” he added.
Meanwhile, after months of conspiratorial talk about Democrats and the “deep state” stealing midterm elections from Republicans after 2022, BDI’s vigilante pollsters have largely stayed away from mailboxes. Therefore, I am warning you not to become complacent.
According to the fact sheet, BDI data shows there were 44 physical surveillance incidents in 2022 at fewer than 20 dropbox locations out of an estimated 13,000 locations nationwide. In other words, only 0.1% of dropboxes nationwide were subject to surveillance efforts.
However, the report notes that the threat of surveillance has resurfaced online during the 2024 election cycle, and that states including Arizona and Wisconsin have made legal decisions to ease restrictions on vigilante surveillance. It warns that it is paving the way for possible voter intimidation.
The Guardian reported this week that an Arizona polling group had cast doubt on the election results in advance and that its members’ paranoia was being fueled by right-wing influencers and the media.
Ahead of the vote, the fact sheet makes a series of recommendations for Labor to poll on how to stop political violence. Investigation to identify threats. Communicating accurate information about elections. Community outreach and dialogue regarding election security.
The BDI report states, “These actions will improve the U.S.’s early warning infrastructure for political violence and reduce rumors, false claims, and unsubstantiated threatening messages aimed at suppressing voter turnout in targeted communities.” This can prevent the amplification of
