DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israel’s attack on Iran Satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press on Tuesday showed possible damage to a base run by the Revolutionary Guards, a paramilitary group that builds ballistic missiles and fires rockets as part of its own space program. .
The damage to the Shahrood base raises new questions about the Israeli attack early Saturday morning. So far, there have been no reports of any possible damage, especially since the attack took place in an area previously unrecognized by Tehran and involved the Guards, a powerful force within Iran’s theocracy. I’ve kept quiet. I was assaulted. Iran has only identified the Israeli attack as taking place in Iram, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces, not the rural Semnan province where the base is located.
It could also further curtail the Defense Force’s ability to produce solid-fuel ballistic missiles, which it needs to stockpile as a deterrent to Israel. Iran has long relied on its arsenal, especially since it cannot buy the advanced Western weaponry that the Gulf Arab states of Israel and Tehran have been arming for years, especially from the United States.
satellite photo Previously analyzed by The Associated Press Two military bases near Tehran, also targeted by Israel, show that facilities used by Iran to manufacture ballistic missiles have been destroyed, further straining its program.
Fabian Hintz, a missile expert and researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran, said: “Is Iranian production crippled, as some people say, or is it just damaged? I don’t know if it’s just that.” “We have seen enough images to show there is an impact.”
Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not respond to requests for comment. The Israeli military declined to answer questions from The Associated Press, but acknowledged in an earlier statement that the target of the attack was a “missile production facility.”
Images show major buildings at Shahrood base destroyed
High-resolution satellite images from Planet Labs PBC taken and analyzed by The Associated Press show damage to the Guard Shahrood Space Center in Semnan, about 370 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of Iran’s capital Tehran. Semnan also Imam Khomeini Space Centerused by Iran’s civilian space program.
Images showed that the main buildings in the center of Shahrood Space Center were destroyed, with shadows of the skeletons still standing visible in images taken on Tuesday morning. Vehicles, believed to be from authorities inspecting the damage, were seen clustered around the site, and there were more vehicles than usual parked nearby at the site’s main gate.
Three smaller buildings just south of the main building also appear to have been damaged. Iran has been constructing new buildings at the base in recent months. It appears that another hangar located northeast of the main building was also damaged.
Iran has not acknowledged the attack on Shahrood. However, he suggested that the Israeli attack included a pinpoint attack on the base, given that multiple structures were damaged. Low-resolution images after the attack showed signs of damage at the site not seen before the attack, further pointing to an Israeli missile strike as the culprit.
“While we cannot 100% rule out other causes, it is almost certain that this building was damaged by an Israeli attack,” Hintz said.
Given that the large building was surrounded by earthworks, it suggests it was used to handle high explosives, said Hintz, who has investigated the site for years. The central site is likely to handle solid propellant mixing and casting operations, he added.
A large box next to the building is also likely a missile motor box, Hintz said. Its size suggests it could be used in Iran’s Qaybar Shekan ballistic missile, or in its Fatah 1 missile, which Iran claims can reach Mach 15, 15 times the speed of sound. There is. Both were used in Iran’s attack on Israel and subsequent ground invasion of Lebanon during the Israel-Hamas war.
The attack on Shahroud, along with others across the country, may have put further pressure on Iran’s theocracy, especially as Iran assesses the damage to its main arsenal and seeks to downplay the attack. expensive.
“Due to the preparedness and vigilance of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the timely response of the country’s air defense forces, only limited damage was caused to some impact points,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday. He made the claim during a meeting with diplomats. Tehran. “The necessary measures were immediately taken to restore the damaged equipment to operational status.”
US fears Guard space program is cover for missile research
A short distance from the destroyed building is a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has carried out a series of successful missions using mobile launchers to launch satellites into space. Guardsmen answer only to 85-year-old supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Secret space program revealed in 2020.
The U.S. intelligence community’s 2024 Global Threat Assessment says Iran’s use of similar technology would “accelerate the production schedule” for intercontinental ballistic missiles if it continues to develop satellite launchers.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran is currently producing close to weapons-grade uranium after the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear weapons if it chooses to build one. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned.
Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and insists that its space program, like its nuclear activities, is purely civilian. However, US intelligence agencies and the IAEA maintain that Iran had a systematic military nuclear program as late as 2003. Parchin, one of two military bases near Tehran targeted by Israel, saw buildings linked to the plot destroyed.
“Similar to Iran’s nuclear program, you don’t build the system itself, you build all the technology behind the cover of a civilian program,” Hintz said.
Iran could then decide whether to pursue the weapon or use the knowledge as a bargaining chip with the West over international sanctions.
But for now, satellite images suggest Iran is still trying to assess the aftermath of the Israeli attack.
“The picture that is clear is that significant damage has been caused to Iran’s air defenses and missile launch facilities, both of which are vulnerable to further attacks should the Iranians attempt to retaliate. “This is probably the purpose of the move,” said two experts from the Royal United Services Association in an analysis released on Monday.
