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Iran this weekend downplayed the impact of Israeli attacks on its territory and suggested it was withdrawing to avoid escalating the war, but the attacks set a precedent the Islamic Republic has sought to avoid since its founding four decades ago. It became.
Adversaries have avoided direct confrontation for decades, choosing instead to trade punches in shadow warfare. As Iran continues to activate Arab proxy militias to attack the Jewish state, Israel has used covert operations to assassinate Iranian officials and carry out cyberattacks on vital facilities.
Saturday’s attack was the first time Israel acknowledged attacking Iran, bringing the shadow war into the public eye and crossing a line that has led some in the Islamic Republic to question the country’s deterrent capabilities.
In April, after Iran attacked Israel in retaliation for what it claimed was an Israeli attack on diplomatic facilities in the Syrian capital Damascus, U.S. officials said Israel retaliated by attacking Iran just days later. . Israel has not publicly acknowledged the attack.
However, this attack was different. Israel has publicly stated that it has carried out “precision strikes” against Iranian military targets.
“Israel now has wide freedom of air operations in Iran,” Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said, touting the attack’s accomplishments.
Immediately after the attack, Iranian state media published images showing life continuing as normal in the city. Schools remained open and Tehran’s streets were clogged with traffic. Hardline commentators mocked the attack on television, and social media memes poked fun at the limited nature of Israel’s response.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei chose a calm response in his first comments after the attack, saying the attack “should neither be exaggerated nor underestimated.”
But the initial wave of layoffs eventually dissipated, and an internal debate emerged over whether Iran should take tough action to prevent Israeli attacks on its survival-focused regime from becoming the norm.
“If they don’t respond, it will normalize the idea that Israel can attack Tehran without getting a response,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Politics in Washington, D.C. , “The fear that if they don’t do something now, Israel will start treating Iran like they did with Syria. That means sometimes (Israel) attacks.”
The latest attack, carried out in response to Iran’s attack on Israel three weeks ago, avoided nuclear and oil facilities and instead targeted what the Israeli military described as “very important” “Iranian strategic systems.” attacked. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran’s defense systems and missile export capabilities had been seriously damaged. CNN cannot independently verify that claim.
Iranian officials said some military facilities suffered “minor damage” but were “quickly repaired.” According to the Iranian government, five people were killed, including four military personnel.
But experts say the damage was worse than Iran’s government admits.
“This (attack) caused much more damage than anything Iranian authorities could have led. Iran’s air defenses and some of its radars, which are important for identifying incoming missiles, were destroyed in the first wave. “It seems like it was,” said researcher Nicole Grajewski. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Nuclear Policy Program.
Tehran has spent years building a regional agency designed to serve as a security umbrella and first line of defense against Israel. These militias stationed on Israel’s borders also served as a deterrent, discouraging Israel from attacking Iran directly. The idea was that if Israel attacked Iran, Tehran would retaliate by releasing its militias against Israel.
The long-standing balance of power prevented a regional war until Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza last year, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. That sparked a fierce Israeli onslaught that destroyed the enclave and killed more than 42,000 Palestinians. The escalation of that conflict into southern Lebanon led to the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iran’s most formidable proxy, and decimated the organization’s command hierarchy.
The declining status of Iran’s most powerful allied militias, Hamas and Hezbollah, and the weekend’s attacks on Iran have further fueled debate within Iran over whether regional proxies can serve as an effective deterrent.
“There are certainly voices within political circles questioning the effectiveness of the ‘forward defense’ principle and the idea that Iran’s network of regional alliances can provide a security umbrella. If that is changing. “One of the natural aspects of the discussion is what can happen to restore deterrence,” said Amwaj Media, a London-based news site focused on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. says Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of
Since the Trump administration abandoned a nuclear deal with Tehran in 2018 to curb its nuclear program, the Islamic Republic has gradually ramped up enrichment of uranium, which, if refined to high levels, would be the key ingredient in a nuclear bomb. There is. The stockpiled amount has reached 60% purity, and is one step away from becoming 90% weapons-grade.
Iranian officials have repeatedly said they have no intention of weaponizing their nuclear program and would use that potential as leverage in negotiations with the West.
As Israel continues to undermine Iran’s deterrence, Parsi said there is a growing minority voice in the Islamic Republic that supports weaponizing its nuclear program. “The trajectory and momentum of those who say that if Iran actually had a nuclear deterrent, this would not have happened, is the same.”
Experts question Iran’s ability to quickly produce a nuclear weapon, even if it were able to refine uranium to weapons-grade levels. The process of building and testing an atomic bomb could take years and could leave Iran vulnerable to an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.
The nuclear bomb option is “now fairly public” and “normalized in the conversation,” but Israel has been able to derail Iran’s nuclear program in the past and will do it again. That’s a possibility, Grajewski said.
Parsi said that if Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran would seek to build nuclear weapons, regardless of whether the Iranians had immediate access to a bomb.
“Even the more hawkish American president doesn’t like military strikes because the result is most likely that Iran will become nuclear-armed at some point,” Parsi said.
