Renowned economist Christophe Barrault has predicted that Republican candidate Donald Trump will win the November 5 US presidential election. Known as the “world’s most accurate economist,” Barrow’s predictions are based on a variety of indicators, including financial market signals, which suggest a Trump-led “Republican sweep” on November 5th. He says he is doing so.
“Looking at a variety of indicators, including betting markets, polls, election modeller projections, and financial markets, the most likely outcome at this point is a Trump victory and an all-out Republican victory,” he wrote on X.
?????????? #USElection2024 | Looking at a variety of indicators including betting markets, opinion polls, election modeller predictions, and financial markets, here are the most likely outcomes at the moment:
1️⃣ #TrumpWin
2️⃣ #GOP clean sweep
*Polymarket: https://t.co/wHYuypGbPm
*Karshi:… pic.twitter.com/RV2DlCw9Ft
— Christophe Barraud ????????? (@C_Barraud) October 28, 2024
Barrow, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, has topped Bloomberg’s economic forecast rankings for 11 of the past 12 years. At 38 years old, he continues to maintain an impressive track record, lending credence to his latest predictions. Republicans will likely control the Senate, Barrow said, adding that the House remains tilted toward Republicans, which could result in a close race.
In an interview with Business Insider, Barrow said President Trump’s inauguration and Republican control of Congress are expected to result in GDP growth of 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025, which could provide a temporary boost to the economy. he suggested. Under the Trump administration, long-term problems could arise, such as an increase in the federal deficit if deep tax cuts cannot be offset with other sources of funding.
Barrow said the yield on the 10-year Treasury could jump to 4.5% immediately after Trump’s victory and could reach 5% as the administration’s policies unfold. He also predicts that under the Trump administration, U.S. GDP could outperform consensus forecasts for growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.
Regardless of the election outcome, Barrow suggested the economy could continue to do well in the short term. But a divided Congress would likely stall many of Trump’s domestic policies and shift focus to tariffs, he said. Barrow believes this approach could slow long-term economic growth in the United States and around the world.
Earlier, Nate Silver, a prominent statistician who has successfully predicted five US presidential elections, suggested that Trump could win in a close race against Kamala Harris. Silver said his “gut feeling” leans toward Trump, giving the former president a 53.1% chance of winning a second term. However, he cautioned against relying too much on intuition.
Alan Lichtman, known as the “Nostradamus” of US elections for accurately predicting nine of the past 10 presidential elections, said last month that he believes Kamala Harris will win the next election. Using the Keys to the White House model, which assesses 13 factors regarding the strength of the incumbent party, Lichtman found that Harris has an advantage in eight keys, while Trump has an advantage in three. concluded that it has.
