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Bulgaria held its seventh parliamentary election in less than four years, but politics in the Balkans has become even more unpredictable amid Russia’s war with neighboring Ukraine, which has deprived Bulgaria of a stable government since 2020. It seems that the political deadlock could not be broken.
Former prime minister Boyko Borisov’s centre-right Gerb party remains the largest party, based on a near-complete vote count on Monday morning, but with just 26% of the vote, it once again fell short of an overall majority.
The result is broadly in line with opinion polls, and is little different from Mr Garb’s tally in several recent elections, both of which ended without a stable majority in parliament.
Gelb’s rival, the liberal former ruling Party of Continuing Change (PP), won around 14% of the vote, while the pro-Russian nationalist party Revival got 13%. Analysts say it is almost certain that Mr. Garb will not be able to form a coalition with either party.
“We have made a determination to form a government,” Borisov said at a news conference late Sunday, a sharp turn from the previous election, when he abandoned the chance to govern immediately after voting.
He said the party would not discuss anything other than a course of action based on its own platform. “The voice of the people is the voice of God. . . . We cannot replace the vote of the people.”
Under Bulgarian law, President Rumen Radev, a pro-Russian former general, must first ask Gelb to form a coalition government, and if that option fails, two more attempts by other parties to form a coalition. Become. The calculation could be difficult as both Gerb and PP ruled out working with Revival.
“Two major parties alone are not enough,” Boryana Dimitrova, managing partner at Alpha Research, said on state television. “They’ll have to look (further). The question is which one.”
Divisions continued, making coalition building even more complicated. The Turkish party, once the second-largest in Bulgarian politics, split in July, leaving its successors with 11% and 7% of the vote. And two small dissident, pro-Russian groups will enter parliament with just over the mandatory 4% threshold.
“This outcome is not as bad as some of us think,” said Becera Cherneva, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Sofia. “Bulgarians have realized that they are at a critical crossroads for democracy. . . . Therefore, the value of the pro-Russian vote is now decreasing.”
Analysts say Borisov is unlikely to compromise on policy with potential coalition partners, including liberals, socialists and Turks, for fear of jeopardizing his traditional support. said.
“(Borisov) has too much to lose,” said Goran Georgiev, an analyst at the Sofia-based Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD). “His entire image was built on criticizing and denouncing[Bulgaria’s]socialist past and the actors who came out of it.”
The Balkan country of 6.5 million people has been unable to find a lasting political balance since anti-corruption protests in 2020 destroyed Mr. Garb’s majority.
Dimitar Bechev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, said the last time Mr. Garb was able to briefly govern alongside reformers, the government ultimately collapsed in what he described as a “painful experience”. said.
This dysfunction has prevented Bulgaria from undertaking economic and rule of law reforms in preparation for joining the eurozone monetary union, which supporters say will boost economic growth and strengthen the country’s anti-corruption campaign. It is claimed that
Early access to the EU’s border-free Schengen area, originally planned for the next few months, has also been called into question. However, the country joined the region earlier this year for the purpose of air and sea travel rather than land borders.
Several pro-Russian parties are gaining popularity, particularly Kostadin Kostadinov, the leader of the Revival party, who campaigns on an openly anti-Western platform. Two emerging populist movements, Greatness and Morality, Unity and Honor, are each slightly above the 4% threshold, and have also adopted the Kremlin’s position on ending the war in Ukraine.
