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Polls in the seven battleground states are similarly on the precipice, with few clear clues as to who will reach the 270 electoral vote threshold needed for victory.
Polling averages show Harris leading by one point in Michigan, but by less than 1 percentage point in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump has a 2-point lead in North Carolina and a 1-point lead in Arizona.
Taken at face value, these numbers are not a disaster for Harris and do not mean a victory for Trump. If the results match on Nov. 5, Harris will receive a majority of the votes in the Electoral College.
But you would never know this from the strikingly different atmospheres of the two camps.
There has been an atmosphere of panic among Ms. Harris’ Democratic supporters in recent days, as Ms. Harris increasingly warns of apocalyptic warnings that Mr. Trump is awaiting fascism and dictatorship.
“Democrats privately tell us Vice President Kamala Harris will lose, even though polls show it will be a coin toss in 11 days,” Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei wrote in Axios on Friday. The number of executives is increasing.”
“Private conversations with Democrats inside and outside of her campaign have revealed widespread concern that nothing she does, says, or attempts appears to make much of a difference. Democrats are already As for who is more responsible for the defeat, people are starting to point the finger at President Biden for dragging his feet or Ms. Harris herself. ”
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Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign seems “surprisingly confident” and has spoken “in great detail” about his White House post and next year’s policy strategy.
These are underpinned by the ex-president’s level of support, which has been eroded by a creepy campaign speech in which he threatened to jail opponents, and former White House chief of staff John Kelly’s repeated revelations that should have been damaging. This is evidence that he appears to be unaffected. He praised Hitler in the Oval Office.
But some pollsters say the contradictory mood is not justified by numbers alone.
The latest polls show Trump closing the gap on Harris, and in some cases holding a slight lead, but Harris’ supporters are moderately cheerful. The reason is still there.
The latest data from pollster FiveThirtyEight showed that Mr. Trump’s recent rise, which gave him a better chance of winning than Ms. Harris, may have peaked. The site’s latest odds favoring Trump’s victory, which compiles national and state data, are from 53% on October 21st to 51% for Harris and 49% for her by the evening of October 24th. decreased. Economists’ forecasts also show Trump’s odds falling from a peak of 56% on Wednesday to 53% the next day.
CNN pollster Harry Enten spoke candidly about the gap between perception and reality during the network’s midweek segment.
“Kamala Harris… based on polling data… has a very clear path to 270 electoral votes (in battleground states) at this particular point in time,” he said. “The bottom line is that I don’t understand the Democratic panic now, because the path is clear.”
The key to the panic may lie in the motivating factors among Harris supporters, among whom the prospect of a second term for Mr. Trump is causing alarm.
According to data cited by Enten, about 52% of Harris voters said they would be angry if Trump won, but fewer supporters of the Republican candidate said they would feel the same way about a Harris win. was only 42%.
“I think Democrats feel there’s a lot more at stake in this election, and that’s why they’re panicking,” Enten said.
A Morning Consult poll of more than 4,500 voters in seven battleground states tended to support this conclusion.
Consistent with other polls that show the two candidates in a close race, the results show that Harris voters across the state are more strongly opposed to Trump than supporters of the former president.
In a sign that Harris’ description of Trump as “unstable and unstable” may be resonating, 49% of voters in battleground states believe the Republican candidate is “dangerous.” 34% said the same about him. Harris also significantly outperformed Trump in terms of being “too old,” “mentally healthy,” “honest,” and “caring about people like me.”
Mr. Trump, 78, was rated “too old” by more than half of voters (51%), compared to just 5% of voters. The vice president, who celebrated his 60th birthday this week, was elevated to the top Democratic nomination following concerns about Joe Biden’s advanced age and mental acuity, and the president announced his status as the party’s nominee in July. was set aside.
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