The world’s financial leaders gather in Washington to ostensibly discuss technical matters such as debt, inflation, and interest rates. What’s really on their minds is Donald Trump.
The possibility of the former president’s return to the White House has been raised with the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to be held this week. In public seminars, panel discussions, and behind-closed-doors dinners at steakhouses, discussions continued to focus on the vote, which is less than two weeks away.
“Everyone is talking about the US president and waiting with bated breath,” Malaysia’s second finance minister, Amir Hamza Azizan, said in an interview.
That’s because the two candidates offer very different visions for the world’s largest economy, and some officials believe the biggest threats to global stability, such as wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, are This vision is mentioned alongside risks.
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While Vice President Kamala Harris largely represents continuity, President Trump will upend global trade even further than in his first term by imposing 60% tariffs on China and up to 20% on other countries. is threatening.
At a time when the global economy is on track for a soft landing and investors are generally optimistic, policy outcomes are far enough apart to cause “high uncertainty,” in the words of one senior IMF official. .
“Markets hate uncertainty, and the biggest uncertainty hangs over this meeting: who will be the next president of the United States.” The Washington-based Atlantic said Josh Lipsky, director of the council’s Center for Geoeconomics. “That’s important to everyone.”
kamala harris, donald trump
Alongside the conference, a number of events were held where participants indulged in election prediction games.
Goldman Sachs Group hosted a client dinner with a keynote speech by prominent pollster Nate Silver. The International Finance Association’s dinner guests included Mike Pompeo, who served as President Trump’s secretary of state. At JPMorgan Chase’s investor seminar, there was a session titled “Is Trump’s Victory Inevitable?” and speakers included Obama administration chief of staff Jim Messina and President Trump’s senior adviser Scott Bessent. was brought up as a debater.
Financial diplomats were generally careful not to sound like they favored one candidate over another. And most tried to avoid even mentioning Trump by name.
Still, regardless of who is elected, it paints an optimistic picture, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy and the fact that Trump’s first term had already provided guidance on how to negotiate with him. Some people tried to draw it.
Muhammad Aurangzeb of Pakistan
Pakistan’s Finance Minister Mohammad Aurangzeb said that no matter what happens in policy, Pakistan will ensure that the United States remains a major trading partner.
“It’s been the same under different administrations,” he said in an interview. “Therefore, we are working hard to ensure that this situation is maintained.”
The Washington-based IMF and World Bank represent a time when America’s hegemony in the global economy was largely unchallenged. It now faces new challenges from emerging market countries such as the BRICS group. The leaders met in Russia this week, with host Vladimir Putin praising the new “multipolar world.”
President Trump has been skeptical of Western-led multilateral institutions, but World Bank President Ajay Banga has said that if the Republican candidate is elected, the financial institution would use the funds rather than withdrawing from the US. He expressed optimism that people would understand the value of this ability. That’s alone.
“Let’s wait for the results of the election,” said Banga, who was nominated by President Joe Biden. “Let’s engage with the president with the respect he deserves.”
Christine Lagarde of the ECB
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said whoever wins the election should tread carefully with trading partners.
“A time of restrictions and barriers was not a time of prosperity and strong leadership around the world,” she said at an event in the US capital. Whoever becomes the next U.S. president “should at least keep that in mind.”
On Wednesday night at Morton’s Steakhouse across town, China-focused advisory firm Gabekal Research hosted a discussion centered on trade policy and tariffs if President Trump were to win. The mood among the speaker and the audience, which consisted primarily of financial industry executives, was that he was now in pole position.
“People are saying he’s still really angry because COVID and Xi cost him the last election,” said Arthur Clover, the firm’s head of research. “So he’s going to be viewed in a very negative light.”
