CNN
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Even if long-stalled talks to secure the release of the hostages and reach a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip resume within days, there is no hope that the situation will be resolved in time for the U.S. presidential election, which is due in less than two weeks. Almost none, officials told CNN.
The reality of the election’s fallout came to light this week when former President Donald Trump revealed that he had met multiple times with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent days.
Leading negotiators from the United States, Israel and Qatar are scheduled to meet in Doha on Sunday to discuss efforts toward a deal. This is the first high-level meeting in more than two months, but U.S. officials say there will be new momentum following the Israeli killings. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
However, some U.S. officials privately acknowledge that Netanyahu is well aware of and tracking the details of the U.S. presidential election and its potential impact on U.S. foreign policy, and that he is not concerned about the future of the Gaza conflict. He admits he is waiting to make a major decision. Until we find out who our next opponent will be in Washington DC.
Days after Sinwar’s death, Biden aides said Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarked on his 11th trip to the region, including a two-and-a-half hour meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, potentially resuming ceasefire talks. expressed cautious optimism.
But in the meantime, Prime Minister Netanyahu was seeking input from his Republican opponent, President Trump. Trump claimed at a rally in Georgia that Netanyahu had called him at least twice in recent days.
President Trump boasted, “Bibi called me yesterday, and the day before that.” “We’re going to take care of Israel, and they know that.”
Some U.S. officials say this view is at the root of Netanyahu’s tendency to wait for election results before making major decisions on the Gaza conflict — a view that the prime minister hopes will soon reflect on Netanyahu’s thinking. He has set his sights on a far more sympathetic U.S. leader than President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, who he believes could emerge in Washington.
“There’s no check on Mr. Bibi,” a Democratic lawmaker close to the White House told CNN. “He knows he only has two or three weeks to do whatever he wants.”
Mr. Trump, who is in a close race with Ms. Harris, appears keen to publicly boost Mr. Netanyahu’s ego and promote their relationship. Trump’s allies also privately touted the phone call between Netanyahu and Trump as a sign that Netanyahu was seriously considering the possibility of a Trump victory. “These calls show that the international community sees Trump, not Biden, as the solution,” a Trump adviser said.
“If Prime Minister Netanyahu didn’t think Trump would win, he wouldn’t make the call,” they said.
Trump is also consulting with allies about who would join his Middle East negotiating team if he wins the election, people familiar with the conversations said.
As Netanyahu’s government urges détente, the ongoing war has boosted Democrats’ favorability with certain constituencies, including Arab-American voters in key battleground states, as Prime Minister Netanyahu ramps up a myriad of military operations. Asked if he believed he was trying to sway an election that was hurting him, Biden demurred. Like Michigan.
“No administration has supported Israel as much as I have. None. None. None. And I think Bibi should remember that,” Biden said from the White House briefing room. “And I don’t know if he’s trying to influence the election, but I’m not counting on that.”
There is a school of thought within the Biden administration that says Netanyahu would be more aggressive about ending the war if Harris wins, but that is because the US threatens to withhold aid to Israel if Harris wins. This is because they think the president intends to follow through. On the humanitarian front, there will be no change in policy in Gaza.
However, there is broad consensus that a decision is unlikely to be made immediately. Israeli officials also told those they contacted about how to stabilize Gaza that no decisions would be made about its future until after the U.S. election, according to people familiar with the conversations.
Still, the Biden administration has publicly indicated it wants to move forward with efforts to bring the hostages home and end a war that threatens to tarnish Biden’s foreign policy legacy.
“Part of what we’re doing is looking at whether there are other options that we can pursue to come to a conclusion and an outcome,” Blinken said Thursday.
This will be part of the conversation when negotiators, including CIA Director Bill Burns and Mossad Director David Barnea, meet in the Qatari capital on Sunday.
During his visit to the Middle East, Blinken urged Israel to seize the “pivotal moment” after Mr. Shinwar’s killing, but the United States insisted that Mr. Shinwar was the main obstacle to a deal. But Netanyahu also created obstacles to a deal, CNN widely reported.
“The fact that (Sinwar) is no longer with us probably creates an opening for us to actually move forward and get a deal,” the top US diplomat said in Qatar on Thursday, adding that Hamas is not involved. He pointed out that it remains unclear whether the government is prepared to do so.
Despite a high-level vacancy at the top of Hamas and its decentralized structure in Gaza, the Biden administration has confirmed that the group’s top officials in Doha, Khalil al-Haya, Khalid Mashal, and Moussa Abu Marzouk, I believe he represents a leadership system that can be involved if it wants to. .
“They can make decisions, both externally and internally,” said a person familiar with the deliberations.
Both Qatar and Egypt have resumed involvement with the group, but the group has not formally named a new leader.
Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on Thursday: “There are many opportunities if both sides have the will to end the war.”
