Where Harris vs. Trump polls could be off: From the Politico desk

Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.

In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down how the 2020 polls turned out and whether they could fall apart again this time. Additionally, senior Washington correspondent Harry Jackson will sit down for a one-on-one interview with Kamala Harris.

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No polls were conducted in 2020, but will they be conducted again in 2024?

Written by Steve Kornacki

At this time four years ago, polls showed Joe Biden winning relatively easily. For example, on this day in 2020, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Donald Trump leading by 7.9 points nationally and holding an advantage in every battleground state, with some polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead. It was even shown that.

Of course, Biden went on to win the election, but his lead in the popular vote was small (4.5 points) and his lead in the Electoral College was very close, 269-269 with a difference of about 43,000 votes in three states. It became. A tie would most likely have led to Trump’s victory in the House.

This election appears to be even closer, with current national polling averages showing Kamala Harris leading Trump by just 2 points, with all seven battleground states within 2 points. . Perhaps the race is as close as these numbers suggest, and this year’s polls may give a more accurate picture of the game.

However, the possibility of another voting error is up in the air. If 2020 (and 2016) were to repeat and President Trump’s full support eluded him again, he would be on his way to a decisive victory. And if Democratic support is to blame for why she’s somehow undervalued this time around, it’s Harris who’s in great shape right now.

Why President Trump’s support has been underestimated in the past is up for debate. But it’s clear where it was missed. The states with the largest populations of white voters without a four-year college degree are:

Wisconsin, the state with the largest polling gap, has the highest concentration of white residents without college degrees of any battleground state. Michigan State is second highest. This was also the main reason for the low national opinion polls.

Is it happening again? Here’s how the education gap among white voters compares to 2020, on average in current polls:

As you can see, Trump’s lead with white voters without a college education was higher than the polls suggested. But his current 27-point advantage is roughly equal to his 2020 result.

In some ways, this supports the idea that the poll shows Trump’s support largely among white voters without college degrees. But again, given the closeness of the polls, it doesn’t need to be close to the same margin of error to make a big difference this time.

For Ms. Harris, one silver lining now is that polls are underrepresenting her support among black, Hispanic and young voters, who have long been the core of the Democratic Party. Here’s how these groups are breaking out now compared to their 2020 activity.

Harris’s obvious concern is that her approval rating among Hispanics is much lower than Biden’s, both in 2020 polls and in the final election results. But much of Mr. Trump’s new Hispanic support comes from younger voters who have not participated at high levels in past elections. If these voters stay on the sidelines this election, Harris could end up doing much better with Hispanics than current polls indicate. She is also somewhat encouraged by the fact that Biden performed better than polls predicted with black voters in the election. Mr. Harris will need to make this happen again.

Harris also expects support among women to be stronger in the post-Dobbs environment than current polling shows. Current polls show Biden with an 11-point lead over women, but 2020 polls showed Biden with an 18-point lead, and the actual election ended with a 15-point lead.

The campaign saw a dramatic turnaround in gender polls, with some showing historically large gender disparities and others showing relatively modest gender disparities. Harris has an 11-point lead among women, on average, but many polls show her with a much stronger lead. If these polls are correct, it could mean that Harris’ forecast on November 5 is much stronger than the polls currently suggest.

Harris says her team is ‘of course’ ready if Trump declares victory before votes are counted

Written by Alex Seitz-Wald

Vice President Kamala Harris said in an interview with NBC News’ Harry Jackson on Tuesday that she is preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump will declare victory before votes are counted in next month’s election.

Speaking from her official residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C., Harris said her campaign was preparing for the possibility that Trump might try to overturn the election, but was focused on defeating Trump first.

“We’re going to address election night and the day after. We have the resources and the expertise and we’re focused on that,” she said.

Asked about the possibility of President Trump attempting to declare victory before the votes have been counted and news networks and other media outlets have predicted a winner, Harris said she was concerned.

“This is a man named Donald Trump who tried to undo a free and fair election, who incited a violent mob to storm the U.S. Capitol, where 140 law enforcement officers were attacked, and who tried to undo a free and fair election. Some of them are people who are still denying the will of the people who were assaulted and killed. This is a serious problem,” Harris said. He said this, referring to the January 6 attack on the Capitol that attempted to prevent the certification of victory.

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Democrats brace for possible cracks in the blue wall

Written by Natasha Koreki, Carol E. Lee, and Monica Alba

The “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have paved the way to the White House for the past two Democratic presidents.

But with just 14 days until the Nov. 5 election, there are concerns within Kamala Harris’ camp about whether the vice president will be able to claim all three states.

Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an unusual event occurring this year in which only part of the blue wall breaks down the road. The conversation focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin would “fall” to Donald Trump and the other two states would be given the green light, according to three people familiar with the campaign’s strategy.

Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris were to capture Pennsylvania (where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources), it would mean another battleground state or perhaps another. Failure to win two states means he will fall short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

It’s also a potentially thorny issue for Democrats. What the Harris campaign considered one of its best insurance possibilities could also be at risk. Just a few weeks ago, several of Ms. Harris’s advisers said in interviews that North Carolina and Nevada were strong alternatives for Ms. Harris if Mr. Trump won Pennsylvania and took the state’s 19 electoral votes. He pointed to the state’s electoral vote mix.

North Carolina remains in the race, and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, but Harris’ team is less bullish on winning, four people familiar with the situation said. .

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That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.

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