Will Shinwar’s death open the door to ending the war in Gaza?

The death of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader and mastermind of the October 7 attack, is an important milestone in Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

The 61-year-old, who took over after his predecessor Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in August, said on October 16 that he met his end in a chance encounter with an Israeli patrol in southern Gaza. ‘ said the BBC.

The killing of Shinwar was “a major goal for Israel, which sentenced him to death immediately after the October 7 attack,” raising hopes for an end to the ongoing conflict.

“This is not the end of the war in Gaza, but it is the beginning of the end,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement. He described Mr Sinwar’s death as “an important landmark in the decline of Hamas’s malign rule”, but warned that the war was “not over yet”.

CNN reported that many Israelis are “sensing an opportunity to bring back the hostages still being held in Gaza and are making their voices heard.” Large numbers of protesters gathered in cities across Israel over the weekend, demanding that Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government “make the return of the hostages a top priority,” but many said that “so far they have not done so.” I don’t think anything like that happened.”

Israel’s prime minister has long sought to balance the demands of his far-right coalition partners, who are “determined” to reject any deal with Hamas, with “increasingly loud voices” from Western allies, including the United States. , they are “pressuring him to strike a deal and end the war in Gaza.”

Haaretz said in an editorial that now is the time to “do everything in our power” to return the hostages. There is “nothing more legitimate” than the hostages’ families’ demands that Israel capitalize on this military achievement and agree to an “immediate” deal. “The killing of Shinwar requires a real consideration of the possibility of ending the war on all fronts and beginning the recovery that Israel so desperately needs. That must be the objective.”

Not everyone shares the same optimism. Omar Rahman of the Middle East Council for Global Affairs think tank told Al Jazeera: “I don’t think Mr. Sinwar’s death will change Israel’s calculus in terms of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s desire to proceed with the destruction and depopulation of the Gaza Strip. ” he said. Sinwar’s killing “further weakens Hamas’ standing from a leadership and operational perspective,” he said, but militia fighters habitually “operate in cells without centralized leadership.”

“Shinwar’s death alone is not a sufficient condition to end this Gaza war and put Israelis and Palestinians on the path to a better future,” Thomas L. Friedman said in the New York Times. Netanyahu’s government will have to make tough decisions, including whether to negotiate and potentially engage with the reformed Palestinian Authority in rebuilding Gaza. “Frankly, can Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu live up to his Churchill-like self-image and accept what he has refused to do?”

What’s next?

Until now, “both sides have made ceasefires conditional on demands that the other side has refused to consider,” Tortoise said. But while the war continues, “there is reason to believe that Israel’s hand is now stronger and that Hamas realists may accept proposals that Sinwar never considered.”

A cease-fire and hostage release agreement would also “create a small window of de-escalation in the wider region.” But any deal with Hamas “no matter how advantageous” it will be will be challenged by Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, “and there is a possibility that Netanyahu will break his dependence on his coalition partners next time.” There will be no elections until 2026.”