WASHINGTON: The world’s most important election is underway. More than 10 million American voters have already voted to elect their country’s president, either by mail-in or early voting. November 5th, the day of the US presidential election, is actually the last day to vote.
Every American election seems more critical than every election that came before it. This may be due to current narcissism. But the past shapes the present, and each election has changed America and the world in some way.
But perhaps no election is more important than this one. Kamala Harris’ candidacy is historic in its own right. Because this is the first time a woman who is also Black and South Asian has come this close to electing the president of the United States. But the real importance of the election lies in the nature of candidacy Donald Trump and the fact that he has more experience, an ideologically more coherent agenda, and a more disciplined and dedicated team to carry it out of the White House. This comes from the fact that he is running for office. If he wins, the nature of American political administration, the international political system, and the world economy will certainly change, even as the global movement of “national conservatism” gains unprecedented power.
Towards the end of the US elections, over the next 15 days, HT will provide on-the-ground reporting, analysis and interviews, giving you the most informed glimpse into election strategy and voter attitudes from battleground states and Washington, DC. You can. This year’s important democratic political exercise.
How U.S. public opinion polls have shaped the past 25 years
But first, let’s take a look at some counterfactual history from the past 25 years to understand how U.S. elections are shaping the world.
Would the world have been the same if Al Gore had won instead of George W. Bush in 2000? The 9/11 attacks may or may not have happened. If that had happened, the US would definitely have responded. However, the nature of the response could have been different, and Afghanistan’s modern history would have been different. Certainly, the United States would not have invaded Iraq, killed hundreds of thousands of people, and destabilized all of West Asia. The Islamic State would never have emerged from that war. Climate change would have been at the top of the global agenda long before it finally did. And closer to home, India and the United States would not have had a civil nuclear agreement.
Would the world have been the same if John McCain had defeated Barack Obama in 2008? How America would have handled the global financial crisis would have been different. America would never have had the most ambitious health care reform bill. Libya probably had a different history. And if Mitt Romney had defeated Obama in 2012, there would have been no Paris climate change agreement or Iran nuclear deal.
If Hillary Clinton had defeated Donald J. Trump, the world would definitely be different. The economic consensus would not have collapsed and protectionism would not have returned. Although a shift in focus toward Asia was announced as early as the Obama administration, it is difficult to imagine that the United States would sever ties with China and label China a clear enemy. There may have never been an Abrahamic Accord between Israel and its Sunni adversaries. In American democracy, there would have been no return to white supremacist politics. There wouldn’t have been three ultra-conservative justices on the Supreme Court, abortion would still have had legal protections, there wouldn’t have been the January 6 riots, and the US wouldn’t have withdrawn from the Paris Agreement. However, the new coronavirus infection would have been dealt with. Clearly.
And, of course, if Trump had defeated Biden in 2020, there would have been no climate, infrastructure, or semiconductor legislation like the one Congress passed. Russia may or may not have invaded Ukraine, but the Western powers would not have united as they did against Vladimir Putin. A withdrawal from Afghanistan would also have occurred, but probably not in the same form. Washington, DC would still have been aggressive towards China, but it is unlikely that the US would have strengthened the alliance in the same structured and systematic way that it currently does in the Indo-Pacific region. And there would have been a lot of trade wars.
Taken together, voters in specific districts in specific U.S. states have the power to define the world far beyond rational logic, thanks not only to the power of the United States but also to its unique electoral system. It is clear that It is also a power that they wield without fully understanding the meaning of that power.
Three big impacts in 2024
And that takes us to 2024. Like all American elections, this one is extremely important, but perhaps even more so because at issue is the very nature of the American nation and its role as a world power. Consider three major implications of the results this November, especially if Trump wins.
For one thing, this year’s vote will be on whether the United States continues with the same national structure. President Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s blueprint for what his next term should look like, but he and his team believe political leadership will eliminate bureaucracy. It calls for an overhaul of America’s bureaucracy, with provisions that would allow it to As a preliminary step to deploying party supporters, permanent bureaucrats will be deployed. They are calling for an overhaul of America’s judicial system, where the Justice Department is no longer autonomous. They are calling for an overhaul of America’s deep state, based on the belief that intelligence agencies are working against Trump and his movement.
Trump himself has alluded to his critics, calling for retaliation and even the use of military against the “enemy within.” His team calls for eliminating or significantly reducing U.S. regulatory agencies in everything from the environment to competition to education. And given President Trump’s track record in nominating judges, his advisers have hinted at at least two new Supreme Court nominations by encouraging two older conservative justices to retire. That would give the far right a clear majority on the court. The next few decades.
And if Trump wins and Republicans take control of Congress (and they are poised to take control of the Senate), America will be fundamentally different by 2028. The presidency will become more imperial, the regulatory state weakened and the coercive state weakened. The judicial elements of the state will become even more conservative.
The second is how America sees itself in the world. President Trump will continue to take a much narrower view of what America’s national interests are than liberals and neoconservatives. He also doesn’t think America needs to be in the business of exporting democracy and spreading liberalism, nor does he believe America needs to be in the business of exporting democracy and spreading liberalism, nor does he believe it is necessary to maintain the status quo of the international order, enforce rules, or maintain international institutions. Nor do they think that this is America’s job. He doesn’t think much of America’s allies and places great importance on his personal appeal to shape the actions of America’s adversaries.
Specifically, this means that the multilateral system will face an even greater crisis of legitimacy than it currently has, with the United States being unable to force all major UN This will effectively lead to his withdrawal from the institution. The nature of U.S. support for Ukraine has changed, with Washington DC urging Kiev to agree to the terms of a peace deal with Moscow that would involve territorial concessions, something President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has not previously wanted. Ta. For Israel, that would likely mean deepening its partnership with Saudi Arabia and shifting from covert to open diplomatic relations while giving it more freedom to escalate its confrontation with Iran. And that means a policy of geopolitical confrontation with China, but it is also interspersed with President Trump’s foray into forging a personal agreement with Xi Jinping, and it is unclear which side President Trump will lean towards and the balance between the two. No one knows for sure.
Third, the nature of international economic agreements, both in terms of flows of goods and people, is up for vote. Over the past decade, since President Trump took power, there has been a process of transition away from the more open trading regimes that dominated the world in the 1980s and 1990s. Trump and his top trade czar, Robert Lighthizer, believe this comes at the expense of American production capacity and power. Trade has hollowed out American manufacturing, taken away American jobs, and flooded the American market with Chinese products. In the “globalist” paradigm, American investors were no longer investing domestically, but instead investing abroad.
In their view, all of this can be undone with two blunt instruments. The first is tariffs, with President Trump promising to impose across-the-board tariff increases on all imports and even higher tariffs on imports from China. The second is a carrot-and-stick policy for major American companies, where the former is to stay in the country and the latter is when the companies take their operations out of the country. Add to this President Trump’s strong anti-immigrant stance, including a promise to deport illegal immigrants. Of course, this attraction comes from social and racial factors, but it also has economic implications for the American labor market and the nature of global immigration.
Therefore, given the United States’ supreme status as a trading partner, global investor, home for people around the world, and norm-setter, the entire structure of international economic agreements and liquidity is Subject to voting.
Kamala Harris’s presidency will shape America and the world in unique ways. However, its biggest implication, depending on how you view that change, will be to thwart the changes promised by President Trump, for better or for worse. The ongoing battle in America will capture the world’s attention over the next two weeks.
