NISA: Hello. I’m Nisa (ph) and I’m currently in line to vote on the first day of early voting in Georgia. This podcast was recorded at:
Tamara Keith, host:
Wednesday, October 16th at 1:05 p.m.
NISA: Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I’ll probably be wearing a sticker that says, “I’m a Georgia voter.” Now, here’s the show.
(SOUNDBITE OF BIG TOP ORCHESTRA’S “TEETER BOARD: FOLIES BERGERE (MARCH AND TWO-STEP)”)
Keith: Voters are voting. Yes, we talked about that on the pod yesterday, but it turns out Georgia broke records for first-day early voting. hey there. This is an NPR POLITICS podcast. I’m Tamara Keith. I’m covering the White House.
Ximena Bustillo, Signed: I’m Ximena Bustillo. I’m in charge of politics.
BEN GILES, SIGNED: I’m Ben Giles. I covered the campaign.
KEITH: And today on the show we’re going to look at Arizona. It’s one of the seven major battleground states we always talk about in presidential elections. But that’s not all. Voters will decide key Senate races and several attractive ballot measures.
Let’s start with voting strategies. This happens to coincide with two issues that are on the radar of voters this year. Ben, you’re based in Arizona, so let’s talk about this first ballot measure. It’s immigration related. What would it do?
Giles: So in terms of making it a national crime to cross the border outside of a point of entry, it allows local law enforcement, county sheriffs, police departments to enforce federal immigration laws. That means it’s almost the same as SB 4. It is located on the border between the United States and Mexico. It’s part of a longstanding conversation in Arizona about the federal government’s failure to address immigration issues and crack down on illegal border crossings. The state wants to take on that role — and I should say Republicans in the state — want to empower sheriffs and local law enforcement to do just that.
Keith: So, Ximena, you just returned from a reporting trip in Arizona. But I’m a little confused because immigration is a federal policy, not a state policy, and I feel like this is being challenged in court.
Bustillo: Yes, that means that unless Texas’ SB 4, which Ben just talked about, is determined to be constitutional, this part of the ballot measure won’t go into effect. So, technically speaking, this is currently unconstitutional. It cannot be enforced or enacted and is a type of trigger law. Similarly, it won’t go into effect until a court decides that Texas is allowed to do so first.
Keith: Do you have any support?
Giles: That’s right. Remember Arizona’s infamous immigration law, SB 1070, passed in 2010? There is support for this bill, as there is much talk about the federal government’s failure to secure the border. Arizona State also needs to play a role in this regard. But what’s interesting is that the system is unpopular with some border agents. They are actually encouraging people to vote no. This is because, in their view, this is an unfunded mission and will add more work than their department can undertake. .
Bustillo: Well, I think the Republican mayor and sheriff told both of us that there would be no funding and no increased resources for this policy. Therefore, they are required to enforce federal law, perform additional tasks without additional personnel, and provide training at no additional cost. But at the same time, they also say that this measure stems from what I was told, which is, to quote, “pure outrage.” Arizona was found to be one of the busiest parts of the country’s borders earlier this year, especially after parts of Texas closed their borders. In particular, the number of asylum seekers crossing borders has increased. And it made a lot of news. Republicans talked about it a lot. President Trump heads to the border. Vice President Kamala Harris heads to the border.
One thing I would like to add is that this measure has a lot of support because it creates a new state law to punish fentanyl trafficking. Create additional electronic authentication for access to public services and ensure that undocumented people have no access or more restrictions. So there are other parts of this massive bill that are very confusing, and some that voters may understand better than others.
Keith: Yeah, that’s the fun of voting measures. – that they are often very confusing. Now let’s talk about the other big problem. I think this is the most common thing we’ve heard. It is a measure against abortion. Ximena, let me remind you what’s at stake in that case.
BUSTILLO: So this ballot measure would enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution, and it would also increase access to abortion – the language says within the viable period, which is about 24 weeks. Masu.
Keith: What does state law in Arizona currently allow?
Giles: There’s a 15-week no-abortion clause in the book. You probably heard a lot about the near-total ban on abortion in the region earlier this year. I think that having been repealed by the state Legislature and that territorial ban going into effect really gave a boost to the movement to get this 24-week law on the ballot.
Keith: So is that bill likely to pass as well? Does that measure have a lot of support?
Giles: Overwhelmingly, yes, it is expected to pass. In fact, we’re starting to hear from Republicans like Charlie Kirk on the campaign trail that this bill will pass. Voters support it. This was a citizen effort and set a record for the number of signatures gathered to put this measure on the ballot. There is a lot of support for this.
Keith: Do either of you have any understanding of what these two obviously popular voting measures mean for voters? For example, who is going to show up and vote? For example, what does this mean for the presidential election?
Giles: Democrats of all stripes, up and down the ballot, are hitting the wagons on this abortion bill. You know, from Ruben Gallego (a Democrat running for Senate in Arizona) to legislative candidates further down the ballot. They all think abortion is the winning issue this year. And that’s part of the reason we put this immigration bill on the ballot in the first place. The bill was passed by the state’s Republican majority just weeks after its territorial ban brought the abortion issue to the fore. And Republicans have been pretty open about the fact that they’re trying to put other items on the ballot that would encourage their base to rally and encourage their base to come out in droves. And hopefully it’s not just this immigration issue that’s seeing voting numbers go up and down for Republican candidates. Because they are concerned about the far-reaching effects that abortion measures could have.
Keith: Okay, so we’re going to take a break and talk a little bit more about the other races in Arizona.
And I’m back. Arizona also has a major Senate election coming up this fall due to the retirement of independent senator Kyrsten Sinema. Ben, remember who’s on the ballot for that election.
Giles: As I said, Congressman Ruben Gallego, he’s been running for this seat for almost two years. In fact, before Sinema announced his retirement, he announced that he would run as the Democratic candidate. And then there’s Republican candidate Kari Lake. She lost the Arizona gubernatorial race two years ago.
Keith: So how is that race going? Is it competitive?
Giles: It doesn’t seem to be as competitive as some people think. Polls show Ruben Gallego with a double-digit lead in the race. According to some polls, Kali Lake’s popularity is below the surface. She’s been in the public eye ever since she started running for governor, so I think her election denialism really turned off a lot of voters. Her stance on abortion has also changed significantly over the past few years, making it a major point of attack for Democrats. She is on record as calling abortion the ultimate sin. She praised the abortion ban in the area before the Arizona Supreme Court decided it would go into effect. And she’s trying to regain that position, but I don’t think that’s going down well with Arizona voters.
KEITH: The polls we’re seeing show that at the presidential level, the race in Arizona is very close. And obviously, four years ago it was very tight. Donald Trump may have a slight lead over Vice President Harris, but at the Senate level, Kali Lake has a fairly wide lead over Ruben Gallego, even though this is a race with a margin of error. There is. What is happening there?
Giles: I think it shows that Arizonans are a very special kind of voter. There is also a history of Arizonans voting split. For example, let’s go back to 2018. There was a gubernatorial race on the ballot, as well as a U.S. Senate race. Kyrsten Sinema and then-Republican Martha McSally were running. Kyrsten Sinema won, but Republican Doug Ducey, who is running for governor, also won. He was re-elected for a second term. And many voters voted for Democrats for the U.S. Senate and Republicans for governor.
In other words, Arizona has voters who are not as dependent on political parties as Arizona’s Republican and Democratic bases are. So I think there are voters in Arizona who are looking at Trump and saying they can get another four years, but they’re also looking at Kali Lake and saying maybe she’s not the right candidate. , not a complete surprise to me. For me. I prefer Ruben Gallego.
Keith: So we have 20 days left. What are you looking at, Ximena?
Bustillo: One of the things I’m looking at is how the two different parties continue to approach different voting blocs that could make a big difference in the state. As you know, Arizona has it all. It has a very large Latino population. Native American voters make up the majority. The Phoenix area also has a growing black and African American population. So if you look at how different coalitions are being targeted by each party, from Republicans and Democrats, to the Harris campaign, to the Trump campaign, to the Senate race, you can see where the priorities lie, and ultimately which coalitions. I think you can see what makes a difference. election night.
Giles: And I’m just waiting to see if the Republican ground game has somehow caught up to the Democratic machine. As you know, Democrats have been knocking on doors for years now, encouraging people to vote early if they received a ballot in the mail, and encouraging them to turn in their ballot and fill it out completely. There’s a lot to vote on and a lot to bet on. And Republicans actually contracted out the ground war to Turning Point USA this year. And unlike four years ago or two years ago, they’re also encouraging people to vote early and get out and vote before Election Day. And I don’t think we’ll know the answer to how effective the campaign was until we see the results.
Keith: Okay, that’s all for today. I’m Tamara Keith. I’m covering the White House.
Bustillo: I’m Ximena Bustillo. I’m in charge of politics.
Giles: I’m Ben Giles. We will cover the campaign.
KEITH: Thanks for listening to NPR POLITICS PODCAST.
(SOUNDBITE OF BIG TOP ORCHESTRA’S “TEETER BOARD: FOLIES BERGERE (MARCH AND TWO-STEP)”)
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