CNN
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Rep. Cindy Axson, Iowa’s last Democratic representative, went to party leadership about a month before the 2022 midterm elections to ask for hundreds of thousands of dollars more to be added to her campaign, or else. He complained that he was at risk of losing his seat.
The money never arrived, and Mr. Axne lost his Des Moines-based seat by about 2,000 votes, according to two people familiar with the discussions. It was one of nearly 20 close House races in which Democrats won a majority that year.
Now, those funding woes are a distant memory, and Democrats are within striking distance of not one, but two red-tinged seats in Iowa. Raising an astonishing $1 billion in three months, Vice President Kamala Harris has accelerated this cycle’s fundraising revolution, and is pushing back against Democrats who voted against her and Republican leaders in deep trouble. It’s changing the situation. House Democrats are so deep-pocketed that they are seriously competing on red-tinted turf in states like Iowa and Wisconsin that were trending away from the party just a few years ago.
Democratic gains in the Midwest already outpace the dozen or so seats held by Republicans in New York and California, which were the epicenters of the House majority race. The Democratic Party’s huge summer war chest is expanding the battleground as party leaders explore every possibility of victory. Republicans have had to focus on defense, which has prevented serious competition in areas that were once possible, such as southwestern Connecticut, suburban Nevada and southeastern Pennsylvania.
“When there’s excitement and energy, the money follows,” said Christina Bohanan, a Democrat running in neighboring Iowa. She shattered fundraising records in a tight rematch with Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Not only did Bohanan outperform Miller-Meeks last quarter, he outperformed the Republican incumbent by a nearly 3-to-1 margin. And Democrats plan to spend even more in the final weeks.
Republicans are taking the threat seriously, with House Speaker Mike Johnson traveling to the district this week and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Leader Tom Emmer and Sarah Huckabee later this month, according to people familiar with the plans. -Arkansas Governor Sanders is said to be heading to the area. .
“People are just fired up,” Bohannan, a Democrat, told CNN. “We had a great message in 2022, but we didn’t have as many resources to get that message across.”
But money alone cannot determine which party controls Congress. Democrats need just four seats to flip the House, but voters’ focus on issues like the border and the economy means the political climate remains in Republicans’ favor. And then there’s the Trump factor. Former President Donald Trump continues to perform well among Hispanic and working-class voters, boosting Republican hopes of flipping seats along the U.S.-Mexico border and in rural Alaska and Maine. It’s increasing.
“No candidate in modern history, Democratic or Republican, has mobilized voters as effectively as President Trump,” Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, chair of the House Republican Conference, told CNN. spoke.
What is certain is that whichever party wins the House race, it will almost certainly suffer an even narrower margin, making it nearly impossible to stay in power for another two years. .
Republicans have spent the last three weeks claiming that Democrats’ financial advantage is what keeps them up at night.
Of the 32 most competitive House seats, all but two Republicans were won by Democrats in the most recent quarter, according to Federal Election Commission filings released Tuesday. (The Republican exceptions were Republican Rep. Jen Quiggans of Virginia and Rep. Michelle Steele of California.)
All but six Democrats topped the $2 million mark, and some even raised more.
Republican candidate Derrick Anderson brought in $1.1 million for a competitive open seat in central Virginia, making him one of the top fundraisers for House Republicans this year. But Democrat Eugene Vindman, who entered the race, raised an astonishing $6.5 million. This gave him a nearly 11-to-1 advantage over his Republican opponent.
Next up are Democrat Will Rollins, who won $3.6 million against longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in Southern California, and Democrat Amish, who won $3.45 million against Republican Rep. David Schweikert of Arizona. Mr. Shah is there. Both Republican incumbents are now in more danger than Republicans realize.
Elon Musk’s super PAC has spent a lot of money on Calvert in recent days, and Trump himself stumbled for Calvert this past weekend in the desert town of Coachella, California.
Rollins said of his fundraising, “It was more than we could have ever imagined.” He said Trump’s visit was the last chance to save Calvert. But he predicted: That’s why I believe we will win in the end.”
Across the country, New Hampshire’s senior Democratic congresswoman, Anne Kuster, recently drove through Pennsylvania to support Democratic candidate Janelle Stelson. Mr. Stelson has raised three times as much as his Republican opponent, Rep. Scott Perry, former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus.
“That’s insane. Those are the numbers in the Senate,” said Kuster, who is retiring this year after 12 years in New Hampshire’s Blanco seat. “We’ve never had a $1 million quarter, and now all the candidates are getting $1 million quarters.”
Top Republicans are under pressure to respond. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Republican leaders, announced a $2.6 million buyout this week to protect Perry in a seat that Trump won by nearly 5 points.
In another “reach” seat, Democrats raised so much money against Steele that Republicans shifted money from a competitive open seat in Orange County to protect the Republican. And Republican groups have begun pouring money into the open seat in Colorado, which Trump won by 8 points.
One incumbent, Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, lost his race due to a “tsunami” of money poured into his seat by Harris and her allies because of its unique status as an independent electoral vote. He said there was a possibility that he would be defeated.
“That’s my biggest issue right now,” Bacon said, noting that Harris has spent $21 million on campaign messaging, while Trump has spent about $100,000. It’s about how we are being wasted at the top of the constituency.”
“I wish he would put something on the airwaves to show people why they should vote for him.” Bacon said, “This is something everyone should vote against.” “I think the other team has all the aces right now, but we’re in a fight.”
Two years ago, Bacon’s challenger, state Sen. Tony Vargas. Spending was outnumbered 3-1 by GOP super PAC groups. This time, Democrats have enough money to sustain themselves.
“We were able to fight back because we had these resources,” Vargas told CNN.
While Mr. Trump is focused on his own campaign, his leadership team, including Mr. Johnson and his campaign manager, Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, has been making last-minute cash offers to fellow Republicans. This is an urgent appeal.
But it was too late to match the Democrats’ significant advantages. The party made an early televised jump in Republican-held seats, forcing outside Republican groups to respond on the fly and narrow their own offensive opportunities. As a result, Republican groups have decided not to contest previously competitive areas, such as the seats held by Democratic Reps. Angie Craig of Minnesota, Nikki Budzinski of Illinois and Hillary Scholten of Michigan.
“(The funding) is definitely setting off alarm bells,” one House Republican leader told CNN. “It’s been very difficult to catch up. I think that will be a crucial part of the post-mortem if we lose the seat.”
With fewer members on defense, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his party jumped into a long-shot race that seemed unthinkable earlier this summer. House Majority PAC is currently competing in tougher races, including Perry in Pennsylvania, Ryan Zinke in Montana and Monica Delacruz in Texas.
Zinke himself called for urgent fundraising this month, warning supporters in a letter: “If I don’t cast a total of 180 votes at the fundraiser, not only will I lose my seat in the House, but Republicans may never have a majority in Congress again.”
Zinke raised $2 million, narrowly beating Democratic challenger Monica Tranel. Trump won the seat last time by 7 points.
For Democrats to take back the House, they will need to flip several seats in two key states: New York and California. These roughly 12 seats favor Democrats on paper. But troubling signs are emerging.
Stefanik is determined to protect the Republican lead in New York, where Trump has so far outperformed poll numbers in the past two elections, while Harris is ahead of Biden and He said his approval rating was lower than that of Hillary Clinton.
“President Trump comes to Madison Square Garden for a reason,” Stefanik said. “President Trump believes the Republicans will win New York.”
Republicans secretly believe they are likely to lose at least two incumbents in blue states: Rep. Brandon Williams of Syracuse and Rep. John Duarte of California’s Central Valley (as well as Trump’s approval ratings). (Oregon Republican Rep. Lori Chavez Delemer) Many are also worried about Southern California’s Rep. Mike Garcia and upstate New York’s Rep. Mark Molinaro.
And Republicans are pinning their hopes on Hispanic-heavy seats in Colorado, New Mexico and Texas, where Trump is backing the GOP’s offensive. Democrats are concerned that Colorado Rep. Yadira Carabeo is particularly vulnerable.
Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who represents part of the U.S.-Mexico border in south Texas, said it was a warning to his entire party, including Harris.
“Democrats cannot take Hispanic voters for granted,” Cuellar told CNN. He warned that Republicans are “chipping away” at their Hispanic voter base while Democrats have been slow to react on the border issue.
He added, “In the minds of many voters, Democrats are not strong on border security and Republicans are strong on border security. I hate to say I told you that, but I often say, I said, ‘Guys, this is important.’
CNN’s David Wright, Fredreka Schouten, Matt Holt and Alex Leeds Matthews contributed to this report.
