Bob Casey Jr. entered the U.S. Senate 18 years ago as a pro-life Democrat who opposed same-sex marriage and resisted new gun control measures.
He has changed positions on all of these issues, most recently on abortion two years ago, and has gone from a candidate seemingly formed from the clay of Pennsylvania’s famously moderate politics to a standard issue on nearly every policy issue. He has completed his evolution into a member of the Democratic Party of Congress who upholds the following.
Casey’s transformation is symptomatic of a trend that political scientists have been tracking for years: the increasing nationalization of state and local politics. That’s evidenced by the way Casey’s opponent, Republican Dave McCormick, has largely ignored shifts in Democratic positions this year, trying to tie Casey to Vice President Kamala Harris’ agenda.
» Read more: McCormick narrows gap with Casey in latest poll
Nationally, this election cycle could be a watershed moment for the integration of state and national politics, with Democrats potentially losing Senate seats in Republican strongholds West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. be.
Pennsylvania was once known for its idiosyncratic elected officials and parochial politics. Casey’s father, Democratic Gov. Bob Casey Sr., was denied a speaking slot at the 1992 Democratic National Convention because of his anti-abortion stance. The younger Casey holds the Senate seat previously held by H. John Heinz III, a moderate Republican who is popular with Democratic voters. Mr. Heinz worked alongside Sen. Arlen Specter, a Philadelphia lawyer who was originally a Democrat but switched to the Republican Party after 40 years, ending his career as a Democrat.
“Before 2000, there were a lot of conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans,” said Burwood A. Yost, director of the Center for Public Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College. He is the author of “Will all politics be nationalized?” We investigated Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results. “Both parties have completely recalibrated and this means messaging can be adjusted as well. Your strongest play is against your partisan base.”
The infiltration of Washington’s political concerns into down-ballot races has been happening for decades, but it accelerated during the era of former President Donald Trump. Few Americans have an uncertain opinion of him, and the us-versus-them rhetoric clearly encourages tribalism.
Daniel J. Hopkins, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania and author of “The Increasingly United States,” a book about the nationalization of local politics, says this phenomenon is “increasingly significant in Senate races, where candidates used to emphasize their local areas.” It has become particularly noticeable.” Although it has roots, it is now very nationalized. ”
Mr. Casey is still considered by many to be a moderate, breaking with Democratic orthodoxy on energy and climate policy. He has opposed attempts to ban hydraulic fracturing, a major industry in Pennsylvania, and worked to block President Joe Biden’s administration from restricting exports of liquefied natural gas. He has also supported some of President Trump’s protectionist trade policies.
» Read more: Pennsylvania Democrats Bob Casey and John Fetterman split with Biden over moratorium on natural gas exports
And in some cases, such as same-sex marriage, his change of heart coincides with changes in social mores.
“Things change, the party centers change, the issues change,” Yost said. “On reflection, it probably makes sense to readjust the position.”
Casey declined an interview request. Instead, his campaign arranged interviews with surrogates, including former U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, a moderate Democrat who represents parts of Bucks County and northeast Philadelphia.
“He broke with the left wing of the Democratic Party that was against natural gas and fracking, and I think that speaks volumes,” Murphy said. “He will leave the party when it is in the best interest of Pennsylvania.”
Key moment fuels Casey’s conversion
Casey’s advances on same-sex marriage, gun control, and abortion coincide with major events that have brought those issues to national attention.
He supported stricter gun laws in the wake of the Sandy Hook shooting in 2012 and supported marriage equality in 2013 as the issue heated up in Congress. And in 2022, he announced his support for legislation protecting abortion rights after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
When Casey was first elected to the Senate, speaking at his law school alma mater, The Catholic University of America, he called himself a “pro-life Democrat.”
“I believe that life begins when you become pregnant and ends when you take your last breath,” Casey was quoted as saying. “And I believe that the role of government is to protect, enrich, and cherish every moment of life, from beginning to end.”
In 2018, Casey also voted in favor of a Republican bill supported by then-President Trump that would have banned abortions after 20 weeks.
But in 2022, after the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, Casey changed her mind.
“Today’s decision overturns nearly half a century of precedent and strips generations of women of the constitutional rights they have known throughout their lives,” Casey said in a statement. “This dangerous ruling will not end abortion in this country, but it will put women’s lives at risk.”
Casey says these big moments changed the conversation around those issues or inspired her to think more deeply about her position. But they also changed the political landscape, and Cayce’s evolution allowed him to avoid some unfavorable situations.
For example, Mr. Casey’s being a “pro-life Democrat” before Mr. Roe was overturned had no practical effect. However, following the Supreme Court’s ruling, the Senate will vote on whether to enact Roe’s protections, but in order to win in purple Pennsylvania, it will take Democratic support. It may not have been politically acceptable for Mr. Casey, who needed to be separated, to be seen as a hindrance to his own policies. own party.
“When you’re in a legislature where there’s really no room for defection, there’s nowhere to hide. So the question is, are you going to be a team player?” Yost said. “In a nationalized and polarized environment, you can’t win without a base. That’s the reality for Casey.”
In 2022, Ms. Casey voted for the Women’s Health Protection Act, which sought to codify Ms. Roe’s protections, but was blocked by Republicans.
McCormick focuses on new Casey
Evidence of the nationalization of Pennsylvania politics can be seen not only in Mr. Casey’s transformation, but also in how his opponent, Republican Dave McCormick, has approached this year’s campaign. Rather than branding Casey a crook, Republicans went in the opposite direction and cast her as a committed liberal who promotes the policies of Democratic presidential nominee Harris.
“Eighteen years later, Bob Casey is even weaker and more liberal than when Pennsylvanians first elected him,” McCormick spokeswoman Elizabeth Gregory said in a statement. “Casey will vote for the liberal policies of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden 98% of the time, but there’s nothing to show for it. It’s time for a change.”
Hopkins said he wouldn’t be surprised if McCormick ignored the flip-flopper story.
“They may actually be worried that emphasizing some of these changes will lead people to unintentionally view Bob Casey as more of a moderate.” Hopkins said. “Moderate candidates often perform better in elections.”
Casey, on the other hand, did not immediately lean into the national political narrative when attacking McCormick. Instead, he pointed to investments that Republicans oversaw when he was CEO of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and questioned his ties to Pennsylvania. (McCormick was born and raised in western Pennsylvania, but lived in Connecticut for years while a Bridgewater executive, returning to the Keystone State in 2022 at the start of his political career.) )
» Read more: China, Pennsylvania teachers and a ‘cult-like’ culture: Why Dave McCormick’s time at Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, matters in his Senate race
“While Bob Casey was leading efforts to cap Medicare’s medical costs for seniors and stop greedy inflation, David McCormick spent his career making millions for himself in China and spending time in Pennsylvania. He outsourced state jobs and put his own interests ahead of working families,” Casey said. Spokeswoman Kate Smart said in a statement. “From his dangerous anti-choice policies to his lies about where he lives, David McCormick is completely out of touch with Pennsylvanians.”
Hopkins said that in elections, it is common for one candidate to try to link the campaign to the presidential race, and the other candidate to do the opposite, and that their role is at the top of the campaign. said that it is determined by the performance and relative positions of political parties. Casey has consistently outperformed Harris in the polls this year, while McCormick has lagged behind Trump.
“In any situation, if one candidate benefits from nationalization, the other usually does not,” he said. “What often happens is a candidate looks at the polls and says, ‘I’m doing worse than the presidential candidate (of my party) in this race.’ We should nationalize it.”
How state elections became nationalized
Hopkins said the main reason for the nationalization of local elections is the evolving media environment, with fewer people getting their information from local sources such as local newspapers.
“Many more people are getting their news from nationalized sources,” Hopkins said. “So our media diet doesn’t provide a lot of state- and region-specific information that could allow us to vote differently at the state and presidential level.”
Another factor is funding. In his book, Hopkins revealed that in 1982, two-thirds of Senate candidates’ campaign contributions came from local state donors. By 2012, that ratio had reversed, with two-thirds coming from outside the state. That means Democratic candidates often have to appeal to donor preferences in more liberal arenas.
“Nationalizing campaign finance means, in part, that Democratic candidates can raise money in New York, Chicago, even California,” he said.
Former Rep. Conor Lamb, a moderate Democrat who made national headlines after serving two terms in western Pennsylvania, which was dominated by Mr. Trump, said it was difficult to balance local and national interests. .
“There’s definitely a lot of tension when you’re trying to represent people as a candidate on a day-to-day basis simply because media and fundraising happens at a national level and voters live at a local level,” Lamb said. Ta. He spoke on behalf of Mr. Casey’s campaign. “You have to satisfy both. You have to be good at both.”
Mr Lamb said he doubted Mr McCormick’s attempt to portray Mr Casey as a liberal aligned with the NDP would work.
“The Caseys have been around much longer than Vice President Harris has been in office,” Lamb said. “Pennsylvania people understand on a gut level who the Caseys are. … They’re the kind of people their kids can look up to as candidates. Everything is lost in 90 days of TV advertising.” I don’t think so.”
