CNN
—
In a key race that will determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats are outspending Republicans on TV ads, with California and New York spending the most for both parties, the first full survey shows. This was revealed by CNN, which analyzed advertising data from the party. The month following the end of the primary season.
Both California and New York, while deep blue overall, are home to a number of competitive House seats that were key to Republicans narrowly winning majorities two years ago.
Outside groups have played an influential role in House races, with two of the leading super PACs from both parties accounting for about a quarter of the combined $378 million in ad spending, while Wild There are also cards (super PACs funded by crypto interests). has endorsed bipartisan pro-crypto candidates and has also spent nearly $15 million on advertising battles.
And ads from some of the top spenders reflect the key issues that move voters, such as the economy, which is always top of mind, abortion rights, immigration and crime.
california and new york
All ad spending targeting House races in California and New York combined between September 11th and October 10th, the day after the last US House of Representatives primary determined the general election bracket nationwide. Approximately 29% of the Inside Elections, with Nathan L. Gonzalez, currently rates 10 House races in California and six races in New York as competitive.
Republicans in both states are defending several seats held by legislators who won close races in 2022, seats that Joe Biden would have won two years ago under current policies. .
In New York State, the 4th Congressional District is held by freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, and the upstate district is represented by fellow first-term Reps. Mark Molinaro (19th District) and Mike Lawler (17th District). This includes two seats.
Republicans are also looking to pick up several competitive seats in California, primarily in areas that supported Biden in 2020. Vulnerable members include two Central Valley legislators, Rep. David Valadao of the 22nd District and Rep. John Duarte of the 13th District. . Also, Rep. Mike Garcia of the 27th District in the Los Angeles area and Michelle Steele of the 45th District, as well as the Inland Empire’s 41st District, which narrowly supported Donald Trump four years ago. Representative Kevin Calvert is also on the list. .
Amid these fierce competitions, California and New York have been inundated with advertising dollars from outside groups, while grassroots donors responding to appeals in battleground states are increasing the total amount spent on candidates’ advertising. contributed to further raising the In California in particular, since the last primary election, House advertising spending in the same month has been twice that of other states.
And among the top 20 House ad spends from September 11 to October 10, Democrats outspent Republicans in 17 cases totaling more than $30 million.
The three districts where Republicans led in advertising spending are Nebraska’s 2nd District, California’s 22nd District, and Iowa’s 3rd District, all three Republican-held seats.
In some races, such as D’Esposito’s seat in New York. Duarte’s seat in California. Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District was held by Democratic Rep. Susan Wilde for three terms. Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, home of Democratic freshman Yadira Caraveo. In Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, where Democratic Rep. Marie Grusenkamp Perez is seeking a second term, Democrats have made large investments in the first full month after the primary, amounting to about $3 million to $4 million. Acquired advertising leads.
Throughout the House elections, a small number of powerful outside groups from both parties accounted for a large share of total ad spending. The top House Republican super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, spent nearly $60 million, or 16% of the month’s total, while its Democratic counterpart, the House Majority PAC, spent about $35.5 million, the most in the House. This amounted to 9% of total advertising expenses. A race lasting 30 days.
Top advertisers and issues
Together, the Congressional Leadership Fund and House Majority PAC accounted for more than a quarter of all ad spending in the first full month since the last primary, with TV ad content prioritizing both parties’ messaging. It reflects the matters.
According to data from AdImpact, the Congressional Leadership Fund spent about $42 million on broadcast television ads in that 30-day period, with 39% of that going to ads that mentioned immigration, ranking first among the fund’s ads. It became a problem. CLF also spent more than a quarter of its total advertising budget on spots that referenced crime and taxes.
Meanwhile, the House Majority PAC spent more than $25 million on broadcast TV ads over the same period, with abortion rights accounting for the majority of TV ads by a wide margin more than any other issue, and about 71% of super PAC broadcast TV spending. was spent. Advertisements that mention abortion. HMP also spent nearly 40% of its TV ad budget on spots that referenced crime, often warning of the criminalization of abortion, while ads about people accounted for about 17% of the spend.
Additionally, FairShake, a super PAC funded by crypto interests, has spent nearly $15 million on ads supporting nonpartisan, pro-industry candidates in 17 elections since the last primary, and campaign took on an influential role. Spot praises the candidates’ legislative achievements on economic policy and other important issues.
Campaigns and outside groups typically reserve advertising time well in advance, and future ad reservations change as candidates and their allies adjust their reservations and spend more campaign funds. Possibly.
But with just three weeks until the 2024 election, House races in California and New York are poised to continue to dominate, and Democrats have an overall advantage in remaining ad space going forward. was standing.
Total ad bookings for all advertisers participating in the House race, including bookings from Oct. 11 to Election Day, totaled more than $441 million, with Democrats outpacing Republicans by about $252 million. It has a $183 million lead.
In California alone, more than $89 million in advertising was scheduled to be spent on House races in the last three and a half weeks, while in New York state more than $50 million was expected to be spent on House races; This corresponds to approximately one-third of the total advertising expenditure targeted. The house is in a critical final stage.
