For David Tasker, an 18-year-old construction worker in Pennsylvania, his top financial priority is making sure he has enough money to pay for gas, eat out, and spend on his girlfriend while living at home with his parents. That’s it.
But as he enters an economy experiencing the highest inflation in decades, he is concerned about the price increases he experienced as a teenager. He said he will vote for former President Donald Trump in his first election, keeping these high costs and general economic concerns in mind.
“Trump can run America like a business, but Kamala will run it like a classroom,” Tasker said. “Mr. Trump will be interested in how Americans can get the most money, how to take care of the most people, and keep America first. ”
Pollsters and social scientists say young people like Mr. Tasker, who were considered solid Democrats less than two decades ago, have seen their economic prospects decline, especially among young people without college degrees. It is said that he has moved even further to the right politically. The economy is a top issue for many voters, but it is especially salient for young people, where it is tied to broader cultural ideals about their place in society and how they want to support their families.
“The economic and employment situation for young men without a college degree is significantly worse than for previous generations,” said Dan, director of the Center for American Life Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, which surveys young men.・Mr. Cox says. “These kinds of traditional norms about masculinity and what it means to be a man and a husband are tied to economic success, so when your economic prospects aren’t as bright, That makes it really, really difficult.”
Economic insecurity among young people is ongoing and has continued across generations. People without a college degree earn less than previous generations, after adjusting for inflation, and are less likely to work full-time, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
At the same time, the status of women is improving. A larger proportion of women aged 25 to 34 work full time, now 67% compared to 55% in 1993. Although these women still earn less than men – 92 cents to every dollar men earn – the gap is closing. Pew data. Almost half of young women have at least a bachelor’s degree, while 37% of young men have a bachelor’s degree or higher.
“It’s a lot of the feeling of cultural confusion among men, of not really knowing if they’re needed, or of feeling like they’re failing against the standards set for them at 50. There’s a huge economic truth behind it all, says Richard Reeves, director of the National Institute for Boys and Men, which he founded to study the unique problems men face.
Reeves said his research shows that a sense of economic and social dislocation may be contributing to higher suicide rates and widespread drug abuse among young people.
“There is currently a very difficult and painful transition between the cultural expectations we have about men’s roles and the economic realities on the ground,” he said.
“Proof of strength”
Researchers said differences in the economic circumstances of young men and women are likely contributing to the widening political divide. According to a poll conducted by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics among 18- to 29-year-olds, young people are increasingly turning away from the Democratic Party, with 33% now identifying as Democratic, compared to 42% in 2020. I am doing it.
Opinion polls show Vice President Kamala Harris is the preferred candidate among a majority of young men and women, drawing support from both groups, but support for the Democratic candidate among young women is low. The change in support exceeds that of men. Seventy percent of likely female voters aged 18 to 29 said they planned to vote for Harris, compared to 53% of likely male voters in the same age group. This compares to 2008, when Barack Obama won 66% of the young vote.
President Trump has sought to capitalize on that dissatisfaction by trying to place the blame for high inflation on policies of the past four years under Presidents Joe Biden and Harris. He also promises to bring back manufacturing jobs that can disproportionately benefit working-class men by imposing tariffs of up to 20% on imported goods. Economists say such tariffs would cause widespread inflation and supply chain disruptions.
“There’s a perception that the economy was doing better when Trump was president,” said Melissa Deckman, CEO of research firm PRRI, who wrote a book on Gen Z politics. But overall it was better in terms of economic returns, which may be more attractive to young men.” Because while young women vote based on the economy, they also vote based on social issues. ”
The Trump campaign has also pushed back on ideals of masculinity, from Hulk Hogan’s shirt ripping at the Republican National Convention to targeted messaging around areas popular with young people like Zyn’s nicotine pouches and cryptocurrencies. I’m trying to sue.
Mr. Obama campaigned this week in support of Ms. Harris, who has pushed back against some of Mr. Trump’s efforts.
“I’m sorry to all of you, especially some of you who think that some of President Trump’s actions – bullying and degrading people – are a sign of strength,” Obama said at a rally in Pittsburgh. We noticed this among men.” “And what I’m here to tell you is that true strength is nothing like that. It never was.”
I don’t have any children so I still live at home.
What the everyday economy looks like for many young men is very different than for other demographic groups. That’s because they are less likely to feel the impact of top campaign issues, such as the cost of prescription drugs. , childcare or mortgage interest rates. Instead, a higher percentage of your income goes toward rent, dining out, entertainment, and student loan debt.
One of the biggest financial pressure points for young people is rising rent prices, which have increased by around 20% since 2020. About two-thirds of young people say they spend more than 30% of their monthly income on housing, and about a quarter say so. More than half of their income goes toward housing, according to Bank of America data.
According to a study by Intuit Credit Karma, about 30% of 18- to 25-year-olds continue to live at home with their parents as a result. Pew research shows that young men are more likely than young women to be financially dependent on their parents, and 74% of women say they are mostly financially independent; 62% of men responded.
Economists say this difficult economic climate is causing this generation of young people to postpone major life events. In 2023, only 7% of adults aged 18 to 24 will be married, compared to 18% 30 years ago. They’re also putting off having children, with 33% of 18- to 29-year-olds having at least one child at home, compared to 1993, according to a Pew study. is 59%.
The Biden administration has announced that it will spend more than $1 trillion to build new infrastructure and incentives that will spur a wave of investment in electric vehicles and semiconductor manufacturing, all of which could unfairly benefit young working-class men. A certain policy has been enacted. Harris proposes a number of initiatives that could improve the lives of these young people, including seed money for start-up businesses and help with down payments on homes, along with broader access to mental health care.
But as Democrats have increasingly focused on programs that support other groups, such as women and members of the LGBTQ community, researchers have found that among young male voters, there is a feeling that they are seen as left-wing, that they are not welcome. Such efforts may be weakened by hearing sentiments such as “not being done”.
“What I’m seeing and hearing is that the left is certainly not welcome,” Reeves said. “I think this is a symptom of the failure of the left and the Democratic Party. More specifically, recognizing and addressing the issues of boys and men and ensuring that they are represented, seen and heard on their side of the aisle.” I think we are failing to make people feel that way.”
“Become more business professional”
In an NBC News focus group of young Trump supporters, nearly all of them cited the economy and inflation as top issues.
“Look at what our parents could buy for $10,000 back then,” said Derek, a focus group participant from Wisconsin who leans toward President Trump. “I just went through the pain you went through when I tried to buy a house two years ago. Now I have to make $150,000 just to buy a standard three-bed, two-bathroom house. No.”
At a Trump rally in Pennsylvania, 18-year-old high school student Sam Lilly said he planned to vote for Trump in his first election. He said one of his biggest economic concerns is gas prices. Gasoline prices averaged $3.34 per gallon, down from a high of $5.00 per gallon in June 2022 and $3.96 a year ago. Before the pandemic, the average price of gasoline was about $2.60 per gallon.
“Gasoline is so expensive it’s ridiculous. I drive a truck, so I only get 16 miles per gallon,” he said, currently working at a restaurant but hoping to eventually work as a welder or auto mechanic. Lily said as she thought about it. “I have to drive 20 minutes from home to school, and then another 20 minutes to another school, and then 30 minutes to work, so I’m wasting a lot of gas. It will be.”
He said he thinks Trump will be able to handle the economy better than Harris.
“I think she uses her emotions more than her head,” Lily says. “I like Mr. Trump as a business professional who thinks with his head and approaches things.”
Although Lilly said he was active in voting, turnout among young people in general was relatively low, and researchers saw a lack of enthusiasm for both parties within the group, i.e. He said the issue is who to vote for and whether to vote at all.
“It’s not a done deal,” Cox said. “I think a lot of them will probably end up staying home. Some of them may be reluctant to vote for Harris. I think Trump is more popular among young men than young women. I think he’ll do better — the difference in terms of voter support would be quite large — but I don’t think he’ll win an overwhelming majority.”
