Why Trump supporters are poised to shake up the Senate majority: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.

In today’s issue, veterans of Capitol Hill coverage Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorpe V talk from Montana about whether Donald Trump voters will reelect Sen. Jon Tester and whether Democrats can retain their Senate majority. It is reported that they will decide whether or not to do so. Plus, the “Meet the Press” hosts break down the polling numbers behind Barack Obama’s tough message to Black voters.

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Jon Tester backs ticket splitter in slipping Montana Senate race

Written by Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorpe V

BUTTE, Mont. — Tim Combo arrived at the Western States Carpenters’ second-floor union hall Wednesday, covered in dust and dirt from a day’s work. Combo, who has worked as a union carpenter for 27 years, made the choice because he felt deeply that the election had a direct impact on his life.

“I came here to vote for Jon Tester. I’m also going to vote for Donald Trump,” Combo said in the hall where Tester was speaking.

Mr. Combo represents Mr. Tester, a Democrat, his best hope for winning a fourth term in the deep-red Montana state Senate, which also increases the chances that Democrats will maintain a slim majority in the House. But in the increasingly polarized United States, the number of ticket splitters like him is decreasing with each election, and Republicans have a good chance of winning a majority in the Senate this fall.

Poll after poll shows Tester trailing Republican Tim Sheehy, a wealthy businessman and retired Navy SEAL, but trailing Trump by a narrower margin than Vice President Kamala Harris. There is.

Tester, who has defied expectations before, said he believes union halls like the one he spoke about Wednesday night represent a deep connection to the people of the state.

“Look, I have my brand here in the state, and it’s different than the Democratic Party nationally,” he said in an interview. “If I were like the national Democrats, I would never have been elected the first time around or ever since.”

But Tester’s campaign has made an aggressive pitch to Trump voters in Montana, trying to convince them that he is worth keeping on because of specific issues he has worked on for the state’s benefit. are. At a union hall in Butte, Tester touted his commitment to ensuring that billions of dollars in infrastructure projects earmarked in 2022 create union jobs. A group of mostly men, many of whom Tester acknowledged would vote for Trump, cheered loudly.

Tester, who twice voted to convict Trump during impeachment proceedings, promised to work with Trump and listed issues on which Trump would agree.

“We’ll probably agree on the Second Amendment. We’ll probably agree on the southern border. We have, I mean, a lot of things, yes,” he said. .

Read more about Ryan and Frank →

SILVER STATE DISPATCH: Staying in the West, Nevada is hosting a Senate race that is a must-win for Democrats and could determine the size of Republicans’ potential majority.

Bridget Bowman from Las Vegas says it’s too late for Republican candidate Sam Brown to close the gap with Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, even though the presidential race remains close in battleground states. It was reported that some Republicans are concerned that this could happen.

Read more about Bridget →

The poll numbers behind President Obama’s warning against black men

Written by Kristen Welker

The most popular figure remaining in Democratic politics has officially joined Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign in the final stretch before Election Day.

Former President Barack Obama visited Pittsburgh on Thursday and issued a stern warning to black men to step up their support for Harris.

“The same kind of energy and turnout that I saw when I was running, I’m not seeing in every corner of my neighborhood and community.”Pool’s report says that before attending the rally, President Obama That’s what he told a group of volunteers.

“Part of it makes me wonder if you just don’t feel the idea of ​​having a woman as president and are coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for it,” he said. Ta. “You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses. There’s a problem with that.”

He called on people to “speak out to those who sit on the sidelines” and “stand out or support people who have a history of slandering you, thinking it’s a sign of strength.” I urged him not to think about it.

“Because that’s what it means to be a man? Are you degrading women?” Obama told them. “That’s not acceptable.”

What’s behind this warning?

Recent polling in battleground states by the Howard University Public Opinion Initiative shows that Harris leads former President Donald Trump overwhelmingly among black voters overall, but when the results are broken down by age and gender, there are striking disparities. It was shown that there is.

The survey found that the subgroup of black voters most likely to support Trump over Harris is men under 50. Harris had a 78-point lead among black men over 50, but that gap drops to about 50 points among black men under 50.

Bottom line: This is the first time we’ve heard this powerful and direct appeal to other black men from America’s first black president. The question is: Will this campaign resonate and will this key electorate become more enthusiastic about supporting Ms. Harris in the final weeks of the campaign?

That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.

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