With Election Day just weeks away, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a heated race among all registered voters. 48% said they would vote for Harris if the election were held today, while 47% said they would support Trump. Another 5% of voters choose a third-party candidate.
A majority of voters (82%) say they are confident they will support Harris or Trump in the election. Far fewer said they might change their minds about who they support, or that they might lean toward only one of the two major party candidates when asked in a follow-up question.
Among registered voters:
42% said they were confident they would support Harris. 40% said they were confident in their support for Trump. 5% said they supported Chase Oliver, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West. Roughly 1 in 10 say they support or are likely to support either Harris or Trump.
When faced with a binary choice between Harris and Trump, voters who initially supported a third-party candidate or said they were not leaning toward either candidate were more likely to have a preference. Divided: 35% said they would choose Mr. Trump under the following circumstances, but 36% said they would choose Harris. About 3 in 10 people refuse to answer.
The campaign snapshot in this report is based on all registered voters. Not all voters will vote in the 2024 presidential election. And people who are uncertain or unsure of their choices are far less likely to vote than those who are more certain.
Voters who are confident in their choice are more likely to say they have “thought a lot” about the candidate running for president, that it really matters who wins the election, and that they are very motivated to vote. sex is significantly higher.
Some supporters of Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump say they are confident in their candidate’s choice.
70% said they had “thought a lot” about the candidates. 84% say it really matters who wins. 70% say they are very motivated to vote.
By contrast, far fewer people who are unsure whether they support Harris or Trump say they are interested in or invested in the outcome.
For voters who are unsure about their choice (i.e., those who support Trump or Harris but say they may change their mind or lean toward supporting Trump or Harris) is as follows:
38% thought deeply about the candidate. 36% say it “really matters” who wins. 19% are highly motivated to vote.
Those who support third-party candidates are also significantly less likely to say they are motivated to vote, think well about elections, or say it “really matters” who wins.
Voting preferences among registered voters
A current snapshot of how all registered voters view the race shows Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump virtually tied. Forty-eight percent said they would vote for or lean towards Harris if the election were held today, while 47% said they would support Trump.
The basic pattern of voting preferences mirrors that of last month, with Harris gaining support among young voters, black voters, and college graduates, while Trump gaining support among older voters, white voters, and men. It is supported by
sex
Men are more likely to prefer Trump than Harris, but women support Harris at a similar rate.
race and ethnicity
White voters are more likely to prefer Trump than Harris (55% to 41%), while black voters overwhelmingly support Harris (79% to 14%). About half (54%) of registered Hispanic voters support Ms. Harris, while a smaller number (38%) support Mr. Trump. And Asian voters support Harris over Trump by a 2-to-1 margin (62% to 30%).
education
Registered voters without a four-year college degree supported Trump over Harris (52% to 42%). The opposite is true for registered voters with a college degree (57% for Harris, 38% for Trump).
year
Voters under 50 are more likely to prefer Harris over Trump (50% vs. 41%), while voters over 50 prefer Trump (52% vs. 46%). Voters under 50 are more likely to say they support a candidate other than Harris or Trump (7%) than voters over 50 (2%).
For more information on registered voters’ voting preferences, please see our detailed table.
Voter turnout in 2020 and approval ratings for Harris and Trump
Trump has continued to support the majority of his supporters since 2020 (94% said they support him this year). And Harris has similar support from President Joe Biden’s 2020 voters (92% support her).
Only 5% of voters who supported Biden four years ago say they now support Trump, while 4% of voters who voted for Trump last time now support Harris.
Voters who didn’t vote in 2020 were split almost evenly between Trump (45%) and Harris (44%) because they didn’t vote or were too young, with 8% voting for a third party. They responded that they support the candidate.
2020 President Trump Voters
Trump’s support is strongest among voters who supported him in both 2016 and 2020 (97%) and among voters who did not vote in 2016 but voted for Trump four years ago (97%). 93%).
Most voters who switched from Clinton or another candidate in 2016 to Trump in 2020 continue to support Trump (78% currently approve), but their support is lower than other voters in 2020. . About one in 10 voters (11%) say they support a third-party candidate, with the same number backing Harris.
2020 Biden Voters
Support for Harris among Biden voters in 2020 follows a similar pattern. 95% of voters who voted for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 supported Harris, and 87% of voters who did not vote in 2016 but voted for Biden in 2020 supported Harris. He said he supports Harris. Now I support Harris.
About three-quarters (76%) of Biden’s 2020 voters who supported Trump or another candidate in 2016 are backing Harris this year, 16% are backing Trump, and 4. % said they supported a third-party candidate.
Voting views of Harris and Trump supporters
Harris supporters were more likely than Biden supporters four years ago to view their votes as votes for the candidate rather than for President Trump. About half (48%) of Harris supporters said they considered their vote to be a vote for her. In 2020, 36% of Biden supporters said this about voting for Biden.
The percentage of Democratic candidates who say they are voting against Trump has fallen from 63% in 2020 to 52% now.
As in 2020, most Trump supporters say they are voting primarily for him rather than against his Democratic opponent. Two-thirds of Trump supporters say their vote is for Harris, and one-third say it’s for Harris.
Voter engagement and interest
Supporters of both Harris and Trump are about equally engaged in the election on three measures: interest in campaigning and voting. As was the case before the 2020 presidential election, neither side has a clear advantage in voter engagement.
However, voters overall are reported to be less willing to vote than they were during a similar period in 2020.
strength of support
Mr. Trump (64%) has a slight lead over Ms. Harris (59%) in the percentage of voters who say they strongly support the candidate, but Mr. Trump’s lead over Ms. Harris is now at least 20% compared to Mr. Biden in July. This is a significant decrease (20 points) compared to its superiority over Japan (5 percentage points).
Motivation for voting
Equal shares of Harris and Trump supporters say they are very likely to vote (63% each).
Motivation to vote has declined slightly since August, when 72% of Trump supporters and 70% of Harris supporters said they were very motivated to vote.
Who wins is “really important”
About 8 in 10 Harris supporters (79%) and a similar number of Trump supporters (76%) say the outcome of the election really matters.
Voters are slightly less likely to say they are motivated to vote than they were in October 2020. Currently, 81% of voters say they are very or very likely to vote, six points lower than the share of voters who said so at a similar point in 2020. 2020 campaign. The percentage of people who are highly motivated has decreased from 69% in 2020 to 60% today.
Supporters of both candidates are now less willing to vote than they were four years ago. About 6 in 10 Trump supporters (63%) are very motivated to vote, down from 71% in October 2020. Similarly, 63% of Harris supporters say they are very likely to vote, down from 72%. Biden supporters’ remarks in October 2020.
Motivation to vote across key demographic groups
Overall, 6 in 10 registered voters say they are very motivated to vote this year. However, as in past elections, there are some significant demographic differences in the share of willingness to vote.
Among registered voters, men (59%) and women (62%) are about equally likely to say they are very motivated to vote. Female voters who support Harris (66%) are somewhat more motivated than male voters who support the vice president (60%).
There are big differences in motivation depending on race and ethnicity.
66% of white voters are highly motivated to vote. 51% of black voters are highly motivated. 46% of Hispanic voters are highly motivated. 44% of Asian voters are highly motivated.
As you get older, your willingness to vote increases: Currently, 73% of voters aged 65 and older say they are very motivated to vote, compared to 66% of voters aged 50 to 64 and 30 to 49. 54% of age voters are very high.
As in 2020, voters under 30 are the least likely to say they are motivated to vote, with 40% of voters in this age group saying they are very motivated to vote. And Trump supporters under 30 are less likely to be motivated to vote than younger Harris supporters (34% to 50%, respectively).
