The rapid intensification of recent hurricanes is worrying climate experts, officials, and residents facing these massive storms. More than 1 million people in Florida have been told to evacuate this week as Hurricane Milton hits the state’s west coast.
Milton is the third fastest-intensifying storm on record in the Atlantic Ocean, the National Weather Service said, as experts warn the climate crisis is creating more powerful storms.
When will Milton land?
Milton is expected to make landfall on the central Florida Gulf Coast late Wednesday or early Thursday. The latest forecast Wednesday suggested landfall could occur as early as 11 p.m. ET.
Forecasters said Milton would remain an “extremely dangerous hurricane” until it makes landfall, although its strength is likely to fluctuate.
On Wednesday, Milton was 150 miles (240 kilometers) from Fort Myers and about 175 miles (280 kilometers) from Tampa, with sustained winds of 145 miles (233 kilometers) per hour.
“The storm hitting Florida could be one of the worst in 100 years,” warned Joe Biden, who postponed a trip overseas to remain in the White House to monitor Milton.
How strong did Hurricane Milton get?
While large swaths of the southern United States are still reeling from the devastating effects of Hurricane Helen, the rapid progress of Hurricane Milton has caught many off guard.
In just one day, Milton transformed from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest possible, with winds reaching 180 miles per hour and heading across the Gulf of Mexico toward central Florida. Ta.
The storm experienced “rapid intensification.” This means that the storm will gain at least 35 miles per hour (56 kilometers per hour) over a 24-hour period. Milton’s blistering pace obliterated that benchmark, accelerating to 90 mph in about 25 hours, according to the research organization Climate Central.
This created the strongest hurricane ever to threaten the United States and prompted mass evacuations in the Tampa area on Tuesday. “This is just astronomical,” said Florida-based meteorologist Noah Berggren. “This hurricane approaches the mathematical limits of what Earth’s atmosphere above ocean water can produce.”
How did he become so strong so quickly?
When a hurricane forms, its strength is determined by many factors, including thunderstorms and wind shear, which can disrupt the storm’s tight ring.
However, the main determinant of rapid intensification is the heat content of the ocean and atmosphere. Hotter air and water give the storm more energy, causing it to spin faster and contain more moisture, which is then released into communities in heavy rainfall, causing flooding.
Importantly, the Gulf of Mexico has been experiencing record temperatures for much of this year, and the area has been likened to a summer bathtub. The center of Milton passes over very warm water, about 3 to 5 degrees (2 to 3 degrees) warmer than average for this time of year. Like Helen just two weeks ago, Milton is supercharged by excess heat.
What causes such violent storms?
Hurricanes have always occurred in this part of the world, but scientists have made it clear that global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels is likely making storms faster, stronger and wetter. I am.
A study published last year found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean are about 29% more likely to intensify rapidly now compared to the period 1971 to 1990. Another study found that natural variability alone cannot explain the increase in rapidly intensifying storms. Points out the role of climate change.
Milton has rapidly accelerated into devastating and life-altering hurricanes in recent years, including Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Hurricane Laura in 2020, Hurricane Ida in 2021, and Hurricane Ian in 2022. Added to the list of storms. rapid intensification. In total, as many Category 4 or 5 Atlantic hurricanes have struck the United States since 2017 as there have been in the past 57 years.
“We are witnessing a truly unusual and locally extremely lethal and destructive period of extreme weather in the United States,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “And, frankly, there are traces of the climate (crisis) in what has happened in recent weeks.”
What does this mean for the risks people currently face?
For those living on Florida’s west coast, which has seen a rapid population boom over the past decade, Helen and Milton’s one-two punch has been devastating, leaving them months to rebuild and piece together their shattered lives. , or it could take years.
In the long term, as global temperatures continue to rise, the effects of the climate crisis, including more intense storms, will become even more widespread. Not only does this mean more death and destruction, but also as climate impacts hit supposedly benign regions and economic losses mount, as insurance companies pull back from covering homes and businesses. , it also portends a fundamental shift in where it is considered “safe” to live.
The climate crisis is being thrust onto the US presidential election agenda in the most spectacular and harsh way possible.
