Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.
In today’s edition, senior Supreme Court reporter Lawrence Hurley looks at how the upcoming election looms for the high court as justices return for new terms. Plus, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray breaks down the state of the polls four weeks after Election Day.
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Threat of election disruption looms as Supreme Court returns to litigation
Written by Lawrence Hurley
The Supreme Court returned from its summer break on Monday to issue a new ruling, but attention is now focused on an issue that is not even on the docket yet: the presidential election.
The court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority that includes three justices appointed by former President Donald Trump, will likely be asked to consider pre-election and possible post-election cases. There is a strong view that It happens every election.
But whether these disputes turn out to be blockbusters like Bush v. Gore in 2000, which essentially decided the outcome in favor of George W. Bush, or whether they seek to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. It remains to be seen whether it will end in failure like the various attempts to do so.
Unlike lower courts, judges decide what cases to hear, and in most cases, judges decline to intervene, similar to President Trump’s efforts in 2020.
“Something is going to happen,” said Nate Persily, an election expert at Stanford Law School and an NBC News contributor. “I don’t think they’ll hear any cases before the election, but there will be an attempt to bring them in.”
The Supreme Court’s new nine-month term officially began on Monday, with all nine justices in court to hear oral arguments in two low-profile cases. The justices’ first public appearance follows a series of rulings in early July that included a landslide victory for Trump in a federal criminal case related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. This is the first time since the previous term ended with the ruling. .
The court also declined to hear cases ahead of the new term, including an abortion-related dispute between Texas and the Biden administration and an appeal filed by Elon Musk’s Mr. A long list was also published.
Friday’s action followed the announcement of 13 new cases that the court is expected to decide in the coming months. That included a bid by a gun company to drop a lawsuit filed by Mexico that holds it responsible for the violence there.
Read more about Lawrence →
⚖️ More than just a football school: Lawrence also weighs in on how the University of Notre Dame Law School, whose former faculty includes Justice Amy Coney Barrett, exerts conservative influence on the Supreme Court. I’m paying attention. Read more →
4 weeks left, what the 2024 polls say
Written by Mark Murray
With four weeks left until Election Day, polls for the 2024 presidential race remain dicey and within the margin of error.
This is also true in recent national polls like the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll, which showed Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly winning against former President Donald Trump. 2 points between the 50% and 48% likely to vote, which is within the survey’s margin of error (plus or minus 3.7 percentage points).
The same goes for opinion polls in battleground states that ultimately decide the presidential election.
In the Sunbelt states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump are essentially even, perhaps leaning slightly toward Mr. Trump. Harris also has a slight advantage in the Great Lakes states of Michigan and Wisconsin, but those advantages are well within the range of potential polling errors. And recent polls in the all-important Pennsylvania state, part of the most direct path to 270 electoral votes for Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump, appear to be a jump ball.
What we can learn from public opinion polls
Given the polls’ margin of error, their historically low response rates in reaching voters, and certainly their past missed votes, expecting accuracy from political polls has become a fool’s errand. There is.
But what we can conclude from the polls is whether the race is close. And this race remains by all accounts very close across all different state and national polls, including those that make different assumptions about the 2024 electorate and use different weighting techniques.
Voting also helps determine trends in the race. And this is fundamentally different from the race that existed before President Joe Biden withdrew from his re-election campaign and endorsed Harris.
And public opinion polls help measure politicians’ popularity. Most polls now show that Harris has a higher favorability rating than Trump, after her approval ratings soared when she became a presidential candidate this summer. That wasn’t the case when Biden was on the campaign trail.
What public opinion polls don’t tell you
However, if a candidate is ahead or behind by a point or two in some polls, both nationally and in key battleground states, polls do not tell us whether that candidate will win the presidential election. do not have.
The 2024 election will ultimately be determined by voter turnout, the outcome of news events, third-party/undecided vote share, and other factors. What ultimately matters is which candidate wins in key battleground states, where the difference could be 10,000 or 20,000 votes, but expect that margin to be clearer from pre-election polls. It’s too small.
🗞️ Today’s Top News
📺 Taking center stage: Harris and Tim Walz have launched a media blitz, appearing alongside media personalities like Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Kimmel and Howard Stern, amid criticism that they have avoided the press. Continue reading → 👏 Applause: Harris fired back at comments from Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders that the vice president has “nothing to keep her modest” as a woman without biological children. Continue reading → 📝 Show of support: A group of imams endorses Harris in an open letter, boosting her campaign as she ramps up efforts to win back support from Muslim voters amid the Israel-Hamas war. Continue reading → 📞 Dodge the call: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis receives a call from Harris regarding storm recovery efforts, just over a week after Hurricane Helen devastated parts of the state. Not yet. Continue reading → 🎤 Back to Butler: President Trump addressed a large crowd in Butler, Pennsylvania over the weekend, returning to the venue where a gunman tried to assassinate him months ago, bringing somber memories and fiery rhetoric. Interwoven. Continue reading → 💲 Funding increases: JD Vance says President Trump has a ‘consistent’ view on defunding family planning programs after the previous administration cut funding to reproductive health care organizations said. Continue reading → 💰 Merging business and politics: In the final weeks of the campaign, Trump has been promoting businesses unrelated to his campaign, from watch products to cryptocurrency platforms. Continue reading → 🏛 Resign: House Speaker Mike Johnson reconvenes Congress before election after Biden presses Congressional leaders to provide relief to those affected by Hurricane Helen Don’t commit to doing it. Continue reading → ⚖️ Georgia Abortion Update: Georgia Supreme Court reinstates six-week abortion ban, halting recent lower court decision that overturned law. Continue reading → 🗳️ Impact of Hurricane Helen: North Carolina Board of Elections passes more flexibility in absentee voting and election administration for residents in the western part of the state as the state recovers from Hurricane Helen did. Read more →
That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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