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Harris won 49.3% of the national vote, compared to 46% for Trump, according to a Guardian poll. Early voting has already begun, with more than 1.4 million Americans voting as of noon Friday, according to data collected by the University of Florida’s election research lab.
As with last week’s Guardian analysis, Harris holds a narrow lead. However, this number does not yet reflect the vice president’s argument.
The easiest way to win the 270 electoral votes needed for the presidential election is to continue winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. According to a Guardian analysis, Harris leads Trump in all three regions (1.2 points in Pennsylvania, 0.1 points in Michigan and 2.2 points in Wisconsin) based on a 10-day polling average. advantage is not as important as saying who wins. Analysts say it will win.
There are similarly close races in four other battleground states: Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
“No candidate enjoys a significant lead in the states with the 270 electoral votes needed to win,” New York Times polling analyst Nate Cohn said in his weekly newsletter. “This may be the clearest information we’ve had on the race so far. It was perhaps the first ‘quiet’ week since Vice President Harris entered the race. ”
A small exception may be Pennsylvania, Cohn wrote. Polls showed Harris leading by about 2 points in the state after the Sept. 10 debate, but the race in the state is now effectively even, he said. I’m writing.
The Guardian’s tracker is based on an average of high-quality polls compiled by 538 people over the past 10 days. As of Friday, prediction sites said the race was essentially a toss-up, with Harris having a 55% chance of winning and Trump 55%. The probability is 45%.
Some of Trump’s best polls are in Arizona, where he leads Harris 48.8% to 48%, according to the Guardian’s state poll tracker. Part of that advantage may have to do with his support among Hispanic voters, Cohn wrote.
When Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020, he led Latino voters by nearly 25 points. Cohn noted that four high-quality polls released this week show Harris leading by less than 12 points among Hispanic voters. An NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC national poll found Harris leading among Hispanic voters, 54% to 40%. Biden won 59% of the Hispanic vote in 2020.
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“While Mr. Trump’s strength among Hispanic voters this term may seem surprising, four years ago he enjoyed significant support among Hispanic voters across the country,” Cohn wrote. . “And in 2016, even though his anti-immigrant comments were expected to cause a huge backlash, he did as well in them as Mitt Romney did in 2012. His resilience among voters appears to be a harbinger of things to come.”
Hispanic voters are not a monolith, and Trump and Biden may be targeting different parts of the demographic. In 2020, Biden won support among college-educated Hispanic voters, 69% to 30%, according to a Pew analysis. But among non-college-educated Hispanic voters, Biden’s lead was much closer, 55% to 41%.
A recent poll by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report also found the race to be nearly even. But that analysis showed some positive signs for Harris.
A plurality of voters now think Harris will win the election, with 46% saying so compared to 39% for Trump.
“This represents an 11-point swing in Harris’ approval ratings since August, and while she has been successful in projecting herself as a serious candidate, “This suggests that President Trump’s attempts to paint Harris as unfit for work have been ineffective,” wrote Amy Walter and Jessica Taylor, two of the site’s editors, in an analysis. Ta.
There were also some bright spots for Harris on the economic front, according to the Cook Political Report. While voters continue to believe that Trump is better able to handle the economy, voters are split on who is best suited to control inflation. There is. In August, Trump held a 48% to 42% advantage on this issue.
The shift may reflect that Harris’ economic message is gaining traction with voters, Walter and Taylor wrote. It could also suggest that Mr. Trump has not been successful in linking Ms. Harris to the rising cost of living, they said.
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