Some of the most important and controversial issues, such as abortion and voting access, education, health care, and criminal justice, will be largely decided by state legislators who are likely to be on the ballot this year.
State legislators wield significant power, with Congress gridlocked and policy-making efforts to pass laws dealing with abortion, guns, schools, voting, LGBTQ rights, and more in 50 so-called “democracy institutes.” Its authority is amplified by being entrusted with it.
But even as Congress plays an external role in modern policymaking, voters’ attention is increasingly focused on the narratives of national politics.
Political parties and interest groups are spending millions of dollars trying to influence this year’s parliamentary elections. In at least six states, the margins are close enough to potentially flip Democratic control of Congress.
Republicans have more legislative power than Democrats heading into this year’s election, controlling 55% of the nation’s 7,386 seats, according to an NPR analysis. Overall, Republicans hold control in 57 of the nation’s 99 legislative chambers.
Republicans hold veto-proof majorities in 20 states and can override governors’ vetoes of bills. Democrats hold veto-proof majorities in nine states.
The ability to override a governor’s veto is particularly strong in Kansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina, where Republicans control the legislature and have Democratic governors. Democrats in Kansas and North Carolina hope to win enough seats this year to break Republican supermajorities.
Here are a few Congresses where partisan control is at risk this year.
arizona
Democrats believe they have a chance to win full control of the Arizona Legislature and the governor’s office this year, with Republicans holding slim two-seat majorities in the state House and Senate.
Access to abortion has been a top issue in Arizona since the state Supreme Court ordered a Civil War-era abortion ban to go into effect and lawmakers scrambled to repeal it. Democrats are targeting Republican lawmakers who voted against repealing the ban.
Voters will then decide in a referendum on Election Day whether to add abortion protections to the state constitution, one of 10 states to have introduced reproductive rights ballot measures this year.
The state’s Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs, was elected in 2022. She defeated conservative bills on elections, immigration, and transgender people, setting a record for the most vetoes in Arizona history.
But Mr. Hobbs is bound by a Republican-led Congress and has been unable to defend many of his policies himself. They argue that if Democrats take control of Congress, they will roll back the massive $700 million school voucher program passed by Republicans.
Democrats have not had full control of the governor’s office and the Legislature since 1966.
michigan
Democrats are looking to maintain the trifecta they won in 2022 after Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was re-elected and won narrow majorities in both chambers.
Whitmer acknowledged that she and other candidates made the issue a central part of their campaigns, which was a factor in the Democratic victory that year when the abortion amendment appeared on the ballot. Their victory meant that Democrats had full control of the state for the first time in 40 years.
Since then, Michigan Democrats have passed progressive policies like abortion protections, gun safety, and expanding prevailing wage rules, while repealing conservative provisions like “right-to-work” bills. .
There will be no state Senate elections this year, only House elections. Republicans argue that Democrats are moving the state too far to the left and could keep a Whitmer administration in check.
minnesota
Republicans are also trying to undermine Minnesota’s triumvirate, where the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, the official name for the Democratic Party in the Arctic state, controls both the Legislature and the governor’s office.
Democrats hold a slim majority in the House and are politically evenly matched in the Senate after members dropped out to run for Congress. A special election in the district, located on the outskirts of Minneapolis, will determine control of the Senate.
Andrew Kirch, a political science professor at the University of Minnesota, said it’s difficult to inform voters when a glitzy presidential campaign is underway.
“I think these races tend to kind of fly under the radar,” he says. In many ways, I don’t think there are that many messages that are really coming out. Once again, these races are often overshadowed by national politics and other statewide campaigns. ”
Congress under Democratic control would provide free meals to school children, restore voting rights to some people convicted of felonies, and strengthen abortion access and transgender rights. The bill was passed and signed by Governor Tim Walz.
new hampshire
Control of the Granite State’s largest legislature has waxed and waned over the years, but Republicans currently hold a trifecta. Republicans currently hold a slim majority of 197 of the 400 seats in the state House of Representatives (seven vacancies) and 14 of the 24 seats in the Senate. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has not run for office again after five two-year terms, making the state a rare open gubernatorial election with no term limits. The race to succeed him is perhaps the most competitive in the country this year, between Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig.
New Hampshire is one of the few New England states without abortion protections written into the state constitution, and Democrats hope the issue, along with the open gubernatorial election, will lead to increased voter turnout.
pennsylvania
The Keystone State is one of two legislatures with split control, with Republicans controlling the Senate and Democrats controlling the House.
Democrats are hoping recent statewide wins in the elections of Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman will spill over into local races in a year when battleground states have garnered national attention. There is. That year, Democrats gained a majority in the state Legislature with 12 seats.
If Republicans win a majority in the House and take full control of Congress, there is likely to be conflict between them and Mr. Shapiro.
wisconsin
Democrats hope a new political map redrawn by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers will lead to changes in the Republican-led Legislature after the state Supreme Court invalidated a Republican-drawn map in 2023.
Republicans have controlled Congress for more than a decade under maps that favor Republicans. At least 61 members of the state House and Senate, nearly half of the chamber, will not run from their old districts, according to Wisconsin Public Radio. The Democratic Party has candidates in 97 of the 99 Congressional districts and in each of the 16 Senate districts.
Democrats argue that the congressional map is out of touch with voters after a string of statewide wins, including Evers’ re-election in 2022.
MPR senior political reporter Dana Ferguson contributed to this article.