The Republican Senate candidate is trailing Donald Trump in voter polls, troubling Republican leaders who had thought the aspiring senator would catch up to his party’s presidential nominee.
In Ohio, Trump has an average approval rating of 8.7 points higher than Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno, according to RealClearPolitics averages. In Wisconsin, Trump holds a 2.2 percentage point lead over Senate candidate Eric Hovde. Opinion polls show that both remain below 50%.
In Arizona, Trump’s approval rating is 49.3%, compared to 43.4% for Kali Lake. In Nevada, Sam Brown has 40.7% and Trump 47.6%.
Meanwhile, Democratic candidates for the Senate continue to beat Republican candidates in “every important battleground” of the presidential race, according to a report from Cook Political. However, the site noted that the margin between the two parties is narrower than it was in August, and the Senate races in Wisconsin and Michigan could present a golden opportunity for Republicans.
The polls are even raising concerns about the U.S. Senate race in deep red Texas. The Texas Senate race has shifted from “Republican-like” to “Republican-leaning,” suggesting that Democratic Representative Colin Allred may be gaining momentum against Republican incumbent Ted Cruz. The Hill newspaper reported.
Some data suggests Republicans are likely to win a Senate majority. The website says they could win simply by ousting Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana.
Nevertheless, the poll marks a dramatic shift for Republican senators, with Axios reporting that just a few weeks ago, Republican senators told their big donors that winning the Senate was all but guaranteed. He said unofficially that he was doing so. Optimistic speculation that the party would win 52 seats in the Senate came as Republican leaders appealed to donors to help fill funding gaps in several battleground states.
The situation is reversed in heavily Democratic Maryland, where polls show former Gov. Larry Hogan leading Trump by nearly 30 points. Axios, citing data from Real Clear Politics, said Hogan has built a wall between himself and the former president, specifically refusing to endorse him.
For Democrats, the opposite is true. Kamala Harris is reportedly trailing Democratic Senate candidates in four of the five battleground states.
Harris’ split shows improvement over Joe Biden, with the difference in approval ratings between the presidential and Senate candidates smaller than Trump’s, at about 1 to 2 points. According to Axios, Harris has a one-point advantage over Michigan State representative Elissa Slotkin.
The new poll is one of a growing body of data that shows the presidential election remains close to being decided. A poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from August 5 to 9 found Harris with a 4-point lead over Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
But data from a survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from September 21 to 26 shows that Harris’ lead is shrinking. The Times said that in Michigan, Harris and Trump had approval ratings of 48% and 47%, respectively, “within the poll’s margin of error.”
The Wisconsin poll is even more striking. Harris has an approval rating of 49% and Trump 48%, but the paper notes that Wisconsin polls have a “history of exaggerating Democratic support.”
That could be good news for Harris in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. There, Harris leads Trump by 8 percentage points.
The district’s only electoral vote could be crucial to Harris’ victory in the Electoral College. According to the paper, if Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and Trump wins in key Sun Belt races, Harris would need 270 electoral votes in those districts. It is said that there is a possibility of obtaining .
The poll was taken just before Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate, which raised further questions about the outcome of the race. Unlike the Trump-Harris showdown, which featured the former president’s characteristic brash behavior, J.D. Vance and Tim Walz remained civil and focused on policy.
Some think Vance outperformed Walz, and vice versa, but others think there is no clear winner.
