Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.
In today’s edition, NBC News staff breaks down what they’re watching for in the vice presidential debate. Additionally, our national political correspondents look at how J.D. Vance and Tim Walz’s polling numbers compare to other recent vice presidential candidates.
Programming Note: Stay tuned for tonight’s special edition of the From the Politics Desk newsletter. There, we will summarize and analyze the Vance-Waltz controversy.
The 90-minute showdown, hosted by CBS News, is scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET. Follow all the action with our live blog.
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5 things to watch about tonight’s vice presidential debate
Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are scheduled to take the stage tonight in New York City for the first and only vice presidential debate five weeks after Election Day.
Five NBC News staffers weighed in on one big thing to watch going forward.
Garrett Haak: Will Vance provide the offensive line Trump wants?
Former President Donald Trump sees his running mate as an extension of his own message, as most candidates do, and told me in a phone interview today about his attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris. He said he expected to meet Mr. Vance. Favorite issue: Immigration and inflation.
I’ll be watching to see if Vance can do what President Trump hasn’t been able to do so far. It’s about rolling back Harris’ numbers on handling those two issues after steadily improving them. Mr. Trump’s attacks may now feel pointless to voters who have heard him make the same assessment over and over again. Can Mr. Vance, who is far less well-known than Mr. Trump, offer a new framework on these important issues?
Henry J. Gomez: Do you have a short temper?
The first (and really only) rule for participating in a vice presidential debate is to do no harm. This is why candidates prepare lines to catch rivals off guard and force harmful mistakes, and they work hard with their handlers to anticipate and defuse bombs that might be thrown their way. This is also the reason why I work for .
Walz has a longer debate history, but Minnesota is something of a backwater on the national political stage. Vance is an inexperienced debater, but his team has been putting him in front of tough TV news interviewers for months to find the bugs.
Peter Nicholas: Are we going to see more of Waltz as a regular guy?
Remember when Walz became Harris’ running mate and seemed to electrify the race with his regular guy, high school football coach, and straight-talking truth-teller?
He looked like one of the Harris campaign’s best talents. In tonight’s debate, watch to see if Mr. Walz reminds voters of why he looked so appealing at the beginning of the summer, and leaves them wanting more.
Emma Barnett: Meme-izing the debate
I’m interested to see how quickly memes emerge from this discussion. While Gen Z seems to be obsessed with Waltz, there are some less-friendly memes about Vance. Whether Gen Z begins to send out memes could be a quick indicator of how they view, or are viewing, this debate.
Raquel Coronel Uribe: Will Vance and Waltz shake hands?
President Joe Biden and President Trump did not shake hands during the fateful debate in June. As the new Democratic nominee, Harris broke ties with Biden during the September debate when she made a beeline for Trump, whom she had never met, and began shaking hands with him.
Will Vance and Waltz, who are also meeting for the first time, follow suit?
How do Vance and Walz’s poll numbers differ from past vice presidential candidates?
Written by Steve Kornacki
J.D. Vance has an image problem heading into tonight’s vice presidential debate. In the latest NBC News poll, only 32% of voters had a positive view of him, while 45% had a negative view of him. That’s a minus-13 point net favorability rating, one of the worst numbers ever recorded by a vice presidential candidate in an NBC News poll during a similar period in the election cycle dating back to 1988.
In contrast, Tim Walz has a slightly positive rating, which ranks him in the middle of recent vice presidential candidates.
In the past 10 elections, only two vice presidential candidates have been less popular than the current Mr. Vance.
James Stockdale, who served as independent Ross Perot’s running mate in 1992, was a true American hero. However, his story was unknown to many people, and his clearly unsophisticated debate performance was not well-received. (Respondents in all of these NBC polls were offered “neutral” as an option, and in Stockdale’s case, many chose it.)
And also in 1992, then-Vice President Dan Quayle announced his near-constant presence throughout pop culture over a four-year period that began the moment George H.W. Bush chose him as his running mate in 1988. He was paying a price for his ridicule. Quayle’s image was badly damaged. In fact, that year, some in Bush’s braintrust reportedly plotted to have him removed from the ticket.
Tonight’s debate is expected to be watched by tens of millions of people, so Vance has a chance to improve his standings — and Walz’s erratic performance erases the advantage he currently enjoys over Vance. It’s just like it could be. But if Vance’s image problems continue or worsen, the question will be whether his candidacy could cost him Republican ticket votes.
The general view is that voters’ opinions of presidential candidates ultimately trump any strong feelings, positive or negative, they may have about their choice of vice president. is. An example from 1988 highlights this. As you can see, Democratic vice presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen received a 30-point net positive rating, compared to Quayle’s 5-point lead and a 35-point difference. Nevertheless, the Republican candidate in Bush vs. Quayle outperformed the Democratic candidate in Michael Dukakis vs. Bensen.
But polls in battleground states are so close in this election that even the slightest change could still tip the balance. Fear of Republicans involves a certain kind of persuasive voters who are indifferent to Harris and Democrats but are wary and need reassurance about Trump. Will Mr. Vance end up only increasing resistance among voters?
After Iran’s attack on Israel, President Biden desperately seeks to avoid wider war in the Middle East
Written by Dan De Ruth, Carol E. Lee, Courtney Cube, Monica Alba, Abigail Williams
The Biden administration’s months-long effort to avert a full-scale war between Israel and Iran is now facing its toughest test yet after Tehran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. exposed.
The administration has been working day and night over the past year to avoid a direct conflict between allies Israel and Iran. But now, administration officials are facing a potential worst-case scenario, as an Iranian attack is bound to trigger Israeli military retaliation. Such a chain reaction could draw the United States to help protect Israel and other countries in the region.
Iran last fired missiles and drones at Israel six months ago, in retaliation for Israel’s bombing of diplomatic facilities in Syria, but only one of the 300 projectiles hit Israel. There were only a handful of attacks, and the US government succeeded in persuading Israel to refrain from major attacks. Retaliation.
This time, Israel is eager to strike back, regardless of whether the Iranian attack is effective or not, former U.S. and Israeli officials said.
Read more β
ποΈ Today’s Top News
β« Triple Crisis: Harris and Trump face real-time challenges in how to respond to unexpected crises, including life-threatening weather, war, and a longshoremen’s strike that could lead to price hikes. They are busy revising their plans and tactics. Continue reading β π³οΈ When weather and politics collide: Hurricane Helen disrupts North Carolina election officials’ plans for North Carolina to begin voting by mail and early voting to begin in three weeks. Continue reading β πΊ Advertising blitz: The Harris campaign is launching a new ad campaign criticizing President Trump for saying he has a “vision for a plan” to replace the Affordable Care Act. Continue reading β πΊ Advertisement blitz continues: Coalition of reproductive rights groups plans to spend $15 million on ads supporting Arizona ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in state constitution . Continue reading β π¦ Out of the spotlight: Biden tells allies his name and his accomplishments have virtually disappeared from the national conversation, and the party he served for more than 50 years appears to be rapidly moving away from him I personally complained. Continue reading β π£οΈ Big (Sky) Debate: Democratic Senators. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy faced off Monday night in a heated debate in the race to determine who controls the Senate in Montana. Continue reading β π Lots of birthday candles: Former President Jimmy Carter turns 100 today and says he wants to vote for Harris in November. Read more β
That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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