IN JAPANESE POLITICS, the fifth time is the charm. At least that’s the case with Shigeru Ishiba, the maverick of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). He defeated eight colleagues on September 27 to run for the leadership for the fifth time. This means he will become Japan’s prime minister at a swearing-in ceremony next week. Ishiba came in second place in the first round of voting, behind far-right nationalist Sanae Takaichi. However, as the members who opposed Takaichi rallied to his support, he won the second round run-off election. After the results were announced, he promised to become a leader who “speaks the truth with courage and honesty.”
The Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election turned into an unprecedented mess. Outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida decided last month to resign without running for re-election. The government’s approval rating has fallen below 30%. Recent scandals over the misuse of political funds had many within the Liberal Democratic Party worried that the party would lose a significant number of seats in the next general election. It also weakened the hold of strong factions within the party that traditionally influenced votes for leadership. The nine-member ratio is the highest since the Liberal Democratic Party introduced the current party election rules about 50 years ago. We didn’t know who would win until the last moment.
Ishiba has consistently been the most popular politician in public opinion polls. Mr. Ishiba is the son of a long-serving Liberal Democratic Party politician from Tottori in rural western Japan, and is a throwback to the old style of Japanese politics. He is a disciple of Kakuei Tanaka, the powerful post-war Liberal Democratic Party leader who championed the country’s poorer regions until he was ousted by corruption scandals in the 1970s. Mr. Ishiba, a self-proclaimed defense geek (paranoid), is a former Minister of Defense and an avid collector of model airplanes and warships. He has a uniquely Japanese populist sensibility, boasting about his enthusiasm for national delicacies such as trains and ramen, and posing in the costume of Majin Buu, a character from the popular manga series Dragon Ball. are.
Like his mentors, Ishiba sees himself as a defender of Japan’s forgotten prefectures. The former minister of regional revitalization and minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has promised an economic policy focused on supporting the regions of Japan most affected by the aging population. He also promised to create a Ministry of Disaster Management to strengthen preparedness for disasters such as earthquakes. He has a liberal stance on social issues. He has voiced support for giving couples the legal right to keep separate surnames, but the issue has become a proxy for broader battles over gender discrimination and family life.
While he supports Japan’s military strengthening, he also emphasizes the importance of diplomacy with China. He is also known as a stubborn contrarian. During the campaign, he proposed creating a collective regional security system similar to NATO in Asia (an idea that was quickly rebuked by American officials). He also called for a review of the agreement governing how U.S. forces operate in Japan to reduce what he sees as an imbalance in U.S.-Japan relations.
While running for leadership in the past, Ishiba was unable to garner enough support from Diet members, despite being popular among the party’s general public. He briefly left the Liberal Democratic Party in the 1990s and gained a reputation as a traitor. Upon his return, he became a gadfly, emerging as an internal critic of long-serving former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. His victory was largely due to the misgivings many Liberal Democratic Party members felt about Takaichi, the ideological heir to Abe. Ishiba’s unexpected victory is reminiscent of another political hero, Ishibashi Tanzan. Ishibashi Tanzan is a leading liberal in postwar Japan who became prime minister in 1956 in a shocking victory over Abe’s grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi. However, Ishibashi’s tenure lasted only two months. , before being forced to retire due to illness.
Mr. Ishiba does not have a strong support base within the party. Therefore, he himself may have a hard time living for a long time. The first big test will come when he leads the party in the general election. The term of office for the House of Representatives is until October next year, but the Liberal Democratic Party may dissolve the Diet earlier than that and hold a snap general election. This would allow the party to take advantage of the honeymoon period between the new leader and voters. And a victory would give him public confidence in his policies.
A quick election would also limit the time Japan’s beleaguered opposition parties have to prepare. Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who was elected this week as leader of the main opposition party, will try to move closer to centrists in a bid to wean off voters dissatisfied with the Liberal Democratic Party. However, before that happens, Mr. Ishiba must form a government and assume a new position. Japan’s parliament is expected to meet on October 1 to finally officially appoint him prime minister.