Kamala Harris’ economic policies proved far more popular than Donald Trump’s plans in a blind test of their proposals.
Four of the top five most popular proposals came from Democratic candidates’ camps, according to a new Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian.
The poll showed strong optimism among Democrats about Harris’ presidential candidacy, but once again highlighted pessimism about the U.S. economy on both sides of the aisle.
Americans surveyed were given a list of 12 policy proposals, six from the Harris campaign and six from the Trump campaign. The poll did not reveal whose camp the proposal came from.
The most popular proposal was to ban the federal government from gouging the prices of food and groceries. Some leading economists have criticized the Democratic Party’s proposal. Almost half (44%) of all those surveyed agreed with strengthening the economy.
Harris’ price hike proposal is aimed at helping respondents address their biggest financial problem: the cost of living. The majority (66%) of those surveyed said the cost of living is one of their biggest financial concerns right now.
Other Harris proposals that voters liked included expanding the child tax credit (33%) and choosing to cut taxes for new small businesses (33%). Trump’s only plan in the top five was his proposed Social Security tax cut (42%).
But Trump’s policies remain popular with his base, with 43% of Republicans and independents saying it would be good for the economy when asked about his proposal for mass deportations of millions of immigrants. 24%, and 15% Democrats.
Even better news for Ms. Harris is that independents, a key group in this election, appeared to support her policies more than Mr. Trump’s. Four of the top five policies chosen by independents are from the Harris campaign.
She has been trying to build her own economic base since Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race two months ago, paving the way for Harris to become the Democratic nominee.
This involved a shift away from Bidennomics, which failed to inspire much campaign enthusiasm. In a Harris/Guardian poll conducted last September, a majority of Democrats (62%) said Bidennomics was good in theory but not well-implemented.
Harris has instead promoted an “opportunity economy” focused on rising costs, rather than issues like infrastructure and manufacturing that were key elements of Bidennomics.
The shift in focus seems to be working well. Ms. Harris’ policies were particularly popular among young Americans, whose voting rights have become increasingly powerful. About 87% of Millennial and Gen Z voters said at least one of Harris’ proposals would be good for the economy, while 79% of younger voters said the same. Mr. Trump.
Of the four generations surveyed, Millennial voters appear to be the most supportive of Harris’ candidacy, energized by her appointment after President Biden declined to vote. A majority of Millennials (59%) say Harris’ policies are better than Biden’s, compared to just 36% of Boomers.
Democratic voters overall seem to think Harris turned out to be the better candidate. When asked whether their lives would be better off if Harris or Biden won the election, 80% of Democratic voters supported Harris.
Although Harris has been criticized for being “dismissive of policy,” a majority of all voters polled said they fully understood her policies. More than 60% of voters said they understood Harris’ economic policies.
Slightly more voters said they understood Trump’s positions on certain issues better than Harris, but most of the differences were small. The biggest difference was seen in how voters understood the candidates’ tax policies, with 70% of voters saying they understood Trump’s promises compared to 62% for Harris. answered the same.
“Despite some skepticism that Vice President Harris has not yet made her position clear, our data shows that she is effectively communicating and connecting with the issues facing them. This shows that she is energizing her base, particularly millennials, who will be the largest voting bloc in this election as they transition into more adulthood with child care, housing, work, etc. said John Gerzema, CEO of Harris Poll.
Overall, Americans still seem depressed about the economy. Negative attitudes have persisted since the Harris Poll and the Guardian first asked voters about their thoughts on the economy last September, and the trend continued again in May.
The economy has improved on several key measures since the last survey in May. Inflation fell to 2.5% in August, the lowest level since 2021, and has continued to decline over the past five months. Despite some reports of poor employment growth, the unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.2%. And the stock market hit an all-time high in September. And all this despite decades-high interest rates, which the U.S. Federal Reserve just started cutting this month.
But Americans remain bitter.
When asked how they felt about the U.S. economy now compared to the beginning of the summer, 35% of respondents said they were more pessimistic and 29% said they were more optimistic. Almost three-quarters (73%) of all those surveyed said they did not feel a positive impact from today’s good economic news.
A majority of Americans (61%) believe inflation is rising, when in fact it has fallen significantly from its 2022 peak. Additionally, almost half of those surveyed, 49%, said they believed the U.S. economy was in recession. The US is not in recession.
While many people seem to believe that the economy is worse than it actually is, especially when looking at macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, unemployment, and interest rates, most Americans are actually concerned about their personal financial situation. I feel like I’m getting better.
Compared to May, more Americans said they felt confident in their overall personal finances (61%) and ability to buy essentials (72%). When asked if they felt financially better off than their parents, 58% of those surveyed agreed. This is an 8% increase from when the same question was asked last September.
As the last two Confidence Question polls have shown, beliefs about the economy tend to be shaped by a person’s political party. Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to feel good about the economy. Half of Democrats (51%) say they are optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy, compared to 30% of Republicans.
What Americans of both parties agree on is that we still don’t know who to trust when it comes to learning about the economy. Most respondents (78%) also agreed that most people don’t know what the U.S. economy is actually doing, even though it is a top election priority.
The survey was conducted online by Harris Poll from September 12-14, 2024 among a nationally representative sample of 2,122 people in the United States. The survey has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.