Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are also obvious, so this column will instead focus on peripheral options that should be seriously considered. Good luck with the lineup for week 4!
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Start: Drake London
London ranks third in first-read target percentage after Week 1, when Kirk Cousins was more limited. He also owns a 35% air yard share and a 60% end zone target share in those two games. Kyle Pitts isn’t commanding targets despite having zero separation scores against both zone and man coverage. Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson is struggling with a shoulder injury (looking for a weekly top-five finish for the second time in his career). London is off to a strong start this week as Atlanta is also expected to return to positive third downs.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers
Start: Diontae Johnson
Johnson led all wide receivers in expected fantasy points in his first start against Andy Dalton. He posted a whopping 37.8% target share, seeing off Bryce Young’s 21.8%, who was clearly holding down Dave Canales’ offense. Johnson also recorded a 44.8% first-read target percentage, 10.2 aDOT, and a career-high 122 receiving yards. This was his first 100-yard game since Week 13 of 2021. He almost scored two more touchdowns Sunday. Leads the league in end zone targets.
Dalton provided 29 catchable targets in Week 3 after Young totaled 38 in the first two games of the season. Johnson is an elite breakaway and will likely have more targets on IR with Adam Thielen. Let’s throw away Johnson’s performance with Young (and Kenny Pickett, for that matter), as his fantasy value has increased dramatically with Carolina’s transition to quarterback.
The Bengals are likely to be a good matchup this week, as Johnson has historically seen his production increase significantly when there is no pressure on the QB. Johnson missed Thursday’s practice and had limited participation in Friday’s practice due to a groin injury, but is active.
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
Start: DJ Moore
Moore fell behind last week to upstart Roma Odunze, but is in a good position on Sunday. Keenan Allen will likely not be at 100% as he returns from a heel injury. The Rams are heavily missing Aaron Donald, allowing an NFL-high 9.8 YPA and the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Caleb Williams showed improvement last week, but the Bears can’t run the ball. This is a favorable setup for Moore (and Odunze).
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Start: Aaron Jones
Jones has been great this season, converting 25 chances last week despite being stopped twice at the 1-yard line. Sam Darnold’s 10.3% TD rate will regress, so Jones’ touchdown numbers will likely increase even more. He will have a revenge game this week against a Packers team that allowed 4.7 YPC. Green Bay may have an advantage in the script of the game, as it will start Jordan Love, who is reportedly in poor shape and will wear a knee brace upon his return, against the burgeoning defense of Brian Flores. be.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Start: Cam Akers
Last week, Akers was shut down by Minnesota’s solid run defense (aside from a TD catch), but he converted 12 of 15 running back chances before missing the fourth quarter of a blowout loss. This week should be more favorable, with Houston being the 5.5-point home favorite against a reeling Jaguars team that will be on the road in a short week. Akers will continue to be a mainstay for Houston on Sunday, as Joe Mixon will not play and Dameon Pierce will also be absent. With Tank Dell also out, Arkers will be busy.
Akers is off to a great start this week, as the Texans have the highest implied team total of the week (25 points) and the Jaguars are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Start: Justin Fields
Fields hasn’t exploded in fantasy yet, but he’s played well enough to keep the starting job and has a big rushing game on the horizon. Volume has been an issue for Fields, with the Colts’ opponents averaging 25.7 more plays per game this season. Fields was a top-four fantasy QB through five weeks last season, but started and finished just 12 games. There’s a real fantasy turnaround here as Pittsburgh’s defense finally allows more than 10 points per game. Fields has averaged the most scrambles per game since 2020 and has historically performed much better against a zone defense, which the Colts use at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Fields is a top-eight QB this week.
However, Anthony Richardson and Michael Pittman Jr. are both worth considering on the bench. Fantasy managers will have to be patient with Richardson, but he has another tough matchup this week. Pittsburgh has allowed the least fantasy points to quarterbacks while recording twice as many picks as TD passes. Pittman, on the other hand, was held to just five goals (31.3 percent) from Josh Downs last week and will likely be overshadowed by Joey Porter Jr. on Sunday.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
Sitting: Courtland Sutton & Javonte Williams
Sutton is expected to return for touchdowns in the future, but he’s likely to be an even better buy-low candidate in fantasy after this week. The Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers this year, with Sutton running 82% of his routes.
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Javonte Williams should continue to see snaps given his pass protection, but it’s safe to say he still hasn’t fully recovered from his multiple ligament surgery as expected. Williams looks slow and keeps slipping while trying to land on his surgically repaired knee. Tyler Buddie looks like a good running back for Denver (among other things). Williams’ longest run of the season was nine yards, but it came on his first carry of the year on a play that would have been a touchdown.
This matchup was slow-paced, with the Broncos scoring the second-lowest team total at 15.75 points. Sutton and Williams are bench candidates.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Start: Dallas Goedert
Goedert should be busy again Sunday with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith out. Jahan Dotson has been one of the most highly targeted players since entering the league, and Goedert was great last week, setting career highs in catches (10) and receiving yards (170). Tight end production is down significantly, with Sam LaPorta going down and Trey McBride out with a concussion. Goedert is my No. 2 tight end this week.
Mike Evans is waiting for a big comeback performance.
Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals
Start: James Connor
Conner had a fantasy misfire when the Cardinals had the ball for just 23 minutes, but this week will be a much easier matchup. The Managers are allowing the second-most yards per play on defense, including 5.1 YPC. The Cardinals have the league’s highest expected point total (26.25 points) this week, and with Trey McBride out and Marvin Harrison Jr. dealing with a quadriceps ailment, Conner has been busier than usual. There is a possibility that it will become. Conner was a top-10 prospect each of the first two weeks of the season, so he’s a must-start against a shaky Washington defense that will be on the move after Monday night’s play.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Start: Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk was disappointed last week when he eliminated Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle in a highly favorable matchup and fell behind to Jauan Jennings. But Aiyuk saw 10 targets, and Brock Purdy missed him wide for a 50-plus yard touchdown. Aiyuk also recorded the highest separation winning percentage of any game this season last week. He’s finally starting to hit his stride after missing all summer practices, but Samuel and Kittle won’t be back at 100% as expected.
Purdy has been great this season, throwing deeper than ever and targeting wide receivers in the absence of Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco will acquire the league’s biggest pass funnel defense this week. Christian Gonzalez could be in Aiyuk’s shadow, but the corner is dealing with a shoulder injury and it’s not a matchup that would keep Aiyuk out of fantasy lineups. Stick to BA.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sitting: JK Dobbins
Dobbins’ weekly share of the backfield is trending in the right direction and he’s impressed after coming back from another injury. Justin Herbert is expected to play through a high ankle sprain, but he’s not 100 percent, and three of L.A.’s offensive linemen are injured, with LT Joe Alto likely out. . There may be a problem with the script of the game, and the Chargers’ team total is low (17 points). Kansas City allows running backs just 59.0 rushing yards per game and allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. This is the week to use Dobbins alternatives if possible.
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sitting: Zamir White
White saw the most backfield touches last week, but took a season-low 24% of snaps and ran just three routes. The script for the game may change this week, but Las Vegas is the worst rushing team in football. The Raiders have the NFL’s lowest 2.8 YPC and lowest EPA/rush by a wide margin. It’s hard to trust White in fantasy lineups at this point, even though the Raiders could potentially run more without Davante Adams, who is out with a hamstring injury suffered in Thursday’s practice.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
Start: Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid has seen a steady increase in targets over the first three games, nearly matching last year’s totals in the end zone. This season, the tight end is averaging 10.3 targets, 7.7 catches and 93.3 yards against the Ravens, including a matchup with Travis Kelce. Baltimore is also a pass funnel defense, allowing opponents to pass at a better-than-expected +9% pass rate. The Ravens are allowing a league-low 39.0 RB rushing yards per game, but they have the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, so Kincaid could break out on Sunday.
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
Sitting: Jaylen Waddle
Waddle has yet to score more than five goals in a game this season and will have a hard time helping fantasy managers while Tua Tagovailoa is out (Tyler Huntley helps us out) ). Waddle is averaging an anemic 33.5 yards per game without Tagovailoa, and the Titans have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. This matchup has one of the lowest over/unders of the year (37), so Waddle belongs on the fantasy bench once again.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
Start: Geno Smith
Smith wasn’t needed much last week after Seattle opened with an early 17-3 lead, but he played well in his first year under Ryan Grubb. The Seahawks could struggle against a pass-funnel Lions defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. Detroit’s offense should score a lot at home, so Smith’s volume should be there when he plays indoors Monday night. He has a 119.7 passer rating and a 16:2 TD:INT ratio in six dome games since joining Seattle.
Smith is a top 12 QB for me this week.
