Tehran:
Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah presents Iran with a serious dilemma: how to cope with the loss of a key ally and maintain its regional influence.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, long armed and funded by Iran, confirmed Nasrallah’s death on Saturday after Israel said it had “eliminated” him in an airstrike on the southern outskirts of Beirut.
His death is a sharp escalation in the nearly year-long cross-border battle between Hezbollah and Israel since the beginning of the Gaza conflict, which risks plunging the entire region into wider war. be.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowed that Nasrallah’s death “will not be in vain” and First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said it would lead to Israel’s “destruction”.
Iran also vowed to avenge the killing of Revolutionary Guard General Abbas Nilforoushan, who died along with the Hezbollah leader.
“Nasrallah is critical to Iran’s expansion of power,” said Karim Sajjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment, noting that Hezbollah remains the “crown jewel” of the Islamic Republic’s regional allies.
Ali Baez of the International Crisis Group said his killing “does not change the fact that Iran still does not want to be directly involved in the ongoing conflict.”
But that left Iran with a “serious dilemma,” especially since the group’s deterrent capabilities against Israel are now in “total disarray,” Baez said.
economic crisis
Mehdi Zakerian, a Tehran-based international relations professor, said the developments meant that the Iranian-allied resistance front “not only failed to contain Israel, but also suffered a severe blow.” He said it shows.
Nasrallah’s death came about two months after Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the Palestinian organization Hamas, was killed in Tehran in late July while attending the inauguration of President Massoud Pezeshkian.
Iran blames Israel for his death and has vowed to retaliate.
Zakerian says rebuilding Hezbollah will not be an easy feat for Tehran amid growing economic challenges.
“If the government wants to get involved in rebuilding Lebanon and reorganizing Hezbollah, Iran’s economic crisis will get even worse,” he said.
Iran is reeling from the economic fallout from international sanctions, which have resulted in soaring inflation, high unemployment and a record low Iranian rial against the US dollar.
Pezeshkian’s government is ramping up efforts to ease crippling sanctions and revive the landmark 2015 nuclear deal, which collapsed when the United States unilaterally withdrew from the deal three years later.
Analysts said Iran has acted cautiously since the start of the Gaza conflict, seeking to project power without provoking a U.S. response.
Even in its first direct attack on Israel in April, in retaliation for an airstrike on the Iranian embassy annex in Damascus, most of the projectiles were intercepted by Israeli defense forces and allied forces.
Iran said at the time that it had given the United States 72 hours’ notice and given neighboring countries 72 hours’ warning of what it called a “limited” attack on Israel.
Still, Baez said, Iran “has every interest in trying to preserve what’s left of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is Iran’s shield.”
He added: “I don’t think the Iranians will abandon almost 40 years of investment in this project overnight just because a dozen people have been removed.”
“Weak and meager”
And “Iran cannot abandon Hezbollah because then it would lose other allies as well,” Zakerian said.
Since the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Hamas, Iranian-backed extremist groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen have all been caught up in rising regional tensions.
Analysts say another strong dilemma Iran could face is communication and arms transfers with Hezbollah.
On Friday, the Israeli military vowed to stop Iran from supplying weapons to Hezbollah through Beirut airport, citing Iranian fighter jets patrolling the skies.
“It is already too late for Iran to support Hezbollah with weapons,” said political commentator Mosaddegh Mosaddeghpour.
But he said he believes the group “will repair it the same way it has in the past.”
Hezbollah’s internal communications were also hit hard this month with sabotage attacks targeting members’ pagers and walkie-talkies.
Baez believes it will be “very difficult” for Iranians to communicate with their allies now, unlike during the 33-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.
He said Hezbollah’s “weak and meager” response was highlighted as violence with Israel escalated.
“The question is: Are they unwilling or unable to take action?” he says.
Baez claimed that Iran appears to be hoping that Hezbollah will “get its act together…and launch a major attack to show that Israel is still alive and well.”
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)