The photos from Beirut are disturbing to say the least, but the predictions for the near future are even more disturbing.
In the aftermath of the game-changing assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, pressing questions are emerging that demand answers.
Above all, in the Middle East, is a regional conflict about to erupt that threatens us all? It’s something we’ve been warning about for almost a year, but could it happen soon?
Unless America and its allies can help.
Follow the latest news: Iran warns Israel that it will ‘regret its actions’
Hezbollah is a designated terrorist organization of the United States, United Kingdom, and other Western countries. It has killed hundreds of people over the years.
There is no doubt that President Joe Biden saw what he called “a measure of justice” in Nasrallah’s killing.
But there is also the fear of what will happen next. From the president on down, we can hear urgent calls for de-escalation and a diplomatic solution. And the United States is rushing military assets to repel Hezbollah’s backers, who are committing some of the worst acts in Iran. But is that enough?
US-led diplomacy to contain the Middle East crisis has failed.
A senior Middle East diplomat told Sky News the assassination was a blow to the US president.
“Given all the bombs and billions of dollars he gave the Israelis, the least they could have done for him in the final weeks of his presidency was a ceasefire in the region,” he said. ” he said.
With diplomacy at a standstill, what happens next is up to both Iran and Israel.
Iran may feel it has no choice but to tread carefully. It may be concerned that the large missile arsenal it has supplied is so endangered that it will have to intervene and save Hezbollah.
Iranians have long viewed Hezbollah as insurance against the day Israel attacks Iran itself. If you see an ally approaching complete collapse, is there a chance you’ll join it?
If that happens, Israel’s allies, led by the United States, may feel compelled to defend Israel. All-out war, which has been feared for almost a year, could engulf the region.
But there are good reasons for Iran not to rush into action.
The Middle East appears to be a dangerous and unpredictable place, but even amidst the chaos certain rules and assumptions apply.
For all their fanaticism, the Ayatollahs in Tehran are pragmatic and seek above all to maintain their grip on power. That has been the rule of the Middle East jungle since it came to power 45 years ago.
Is it realistic or wise to raise the amount and support Hezbollah more directly when it is at its weakest? The Iranian regime is also less powerful, and although it is now under control, it has been hurt economically by sanctions and misgovernment, and socially and politically by months of civil war.
In any case, there are limits to what Iran can accomplish through direct military intervention in a war 2,000 kilometers from its border. Iran could end this round once its war with Israel ends. After all, they think in long-term terms. Will there be time to regroup and fight another day?
There will no doubt be many more days of sound and fury like we have rarely seen before. The memorials and funerals for Nasrallah and his lieutenants will be the focus of outrage and are likely to escalate tensions. But what happens after that?
That also applies to Israel.
Now, Japan feels the wind in its sails and may seize the opportunity to invade Lebanon from the ground and push Hezbollah back from its borders. It is also a very dangerous moment, potentially drawing in supporting militias based in Syria and the Iranian military.
The hills of southern Lebanon are dangerous for armies like Israel’s, which rely on infantry and tanks. They could be drawn into long-term punitive operations that could destabilize the region.
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Next is Lebanon itself. The civil wars of the 1970s and 1980s ensured a fragile compromise between rival factions for decades, but that always-fragile status quo is now under threat. The chessboard of multisectarian politics can potentially be overturned by the removal of the most powerful player.
A return to sectarian conflict in Lebanon would also undermine regional stability.
The Middle East is at grave risk of further escalation. Western countries and regional diplomats have been working around the clock to pull it back from the brink, but all recent efforts have failed, and neither Israel nor Hezbollah appear to be listening.