A newcomer to German politics, the BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Union) is making big waves.
Just over nine months after its founding, the new populist party BSW has made astonishing gains in recent state elections and is quickly emerging as a major political force in Europe’s largest economy. In the most recent election, in the state of Brandenburg, outside the capital Berlin, the party won 13.5% of the vote, placing it third behind Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing Social Democrats (SPD) and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
On paper, the BSW is on the left, even the far left, but the party advocates a rare combination of left-leaning economic policies and anti-immigration rhetoric.
Experts say the secret of its success is that it has borrowed from the AfD’s nationalist policies while preying on Germany’s left, and used an unconventional form of populism to appeal to apathetic voters.
So what is the BSW, how does it influence German politics, and whether it could play a key role in the national elections due to take place in September next year?
What is BSW?
The BSW is a new left-wing coalition founded on January 8th, mainly by former members of the Left Party (Die Linke), which has its roots in the former Communist party that ruled East Germany.
The party’s leader, Safra Wagenknecht, was born in East Germany to an Iranian father and a German mother and served as leader of the Left Party, of which she was a member since its founding in 2007.
During her time with the Left Party, she took far-left positions and opposed the party’s attempts to form a state coalition government with the centrist Social Democrats. Later, in 2023, Wagenknecht had a major confrontation with the Left Party after hosting a rally in Berlin called the Ukraine Peace Rally, which critics said was promoting Russia’s cause. At the rally, organizers called for an arms embargo on Ukraine and pressure on Kiev and Moscow to negotiate an end to the war.
A split seemed inevitable later in 2023. She left the party last October.
Is BSW already a force to be reckoned with?
In many ways, yes.
When Wagenknecht, the former co-leader of the Left Party, left the party, nine other members of parliament, who are now also part of the BSW, joined, giving the new party a voice in parliament even before national elections.
And a series of state elections in recent weeks have shown that the BSW is gaining growing support, experts say, far beyond what its parent left-wing party currently enjoys.
On September 1, the party won 11.8% of the vote in Saxony and 15.8% of the vote in Thuringia, placing third in both states. Brandenburg also joined the trend, coming in third again in the state elections on September 22, with double-digit votes.
What makes BSW successful?
Raphael Roth, a policy researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera that BSW’s “personalist, national-populist campaign” attracted a lot of support from left-wing parties but also galvanized people who had not voted in previous elections.
He said the party benefits from being a “newcomer” and therefore can push a program that is “vague on policies beyond general statements on the economy, education and climate.”
The BSW also benefited from three recent state elections held in East Germany.
Matt Kvortrup, professor of politics and international relations at Coventry University, told Al Jazeera that BSW’s success in these areas reflects “nostalgia” among some voters for East Germany’s communist period from 1949 to 1990.
He said the BSW’s promise of strong social security, rooted in left-wing policies, would appeal to voters who felt better protected by the welfare state before unification.
Roth stressed that Wagenknecht’s “ubiquity” in the German media has helped raise the profile of her new party.
He noted that she has “a unique ability to make sharp one-liners while avoiding specifics – for example, calling for peace in Ukraine without actually explaining how to bring the aggressor, Russia, to the negotiating table.”
BSW and AfD: Do the two parties overlap on some issues?
Yes, but there are differences there too.
Consider immigration: According to Kvortrup, the BSW has adopted an anti-immigration rhetoric, blaming large-scale immigration for pressures on the social institutions of German cities and communities. The AfD, since its formation in 2013, has opposed asylum seekers, multiculturalism and Islam.
Roth said the two parties share similar views on immigration and “paint a picture of Germany as a country in chaos because of illegal immigration,” adding that the number of new asylum applications has actually fallen since peaking in 2015.
Roth said the BSW “constantly seeks to link immigration with criminality”, but added that the “underlying racism” of both parties’ anti-immigration stances was “more pronounced in the AfD than in the BSW”.
Kvortrup said the BSW’s approach to immigration reflects a national pride that differs from that of the AfD, whose nationalistic rhetoric is rooted in nostalgia for the more homogenous system that existed in East Germany.
This type of romanticism differs from the AfD’s nationalistic rhetoric, which unapologetically celebrates traditional German culture and seeks to exploit frustration that displays of national pride are seen as inappropriate or problematic because of associations with Nazi Germany, he said.
What about Ukraine and Russia?
Roth said the BSW and AfD “reject two core tenets of Germany’s post-war international orientation: entrenchment in Western politics and European integration through formats like NATO.”
He noted that both parties have an affinity for the world’s authoritarian strongmen, such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
This stance has led both parties to criticize sanctions against Russia and oppose military aid to Ukraine.
But Roth said that while they shared a common scepticism towards NATO, they viewed the Bundeswehr differently.
“The AfD’s national conservatism has great respect for authority, hierarchy and the military, while the BSW only wants Germany to withdraw from NATO and disarm,” he said.
Will Germany’s Social Democrats ally with the BSW?
The possibility is increasing.
Scholz’s SPD narrowly defeated the AfD in the recent Brandenburg state elections.
The SPD has ruled out cooperation with the AfD, but the disappointing performance of its regular alliance parties in recent state elections may force the party to consider cooperation with the BSW.
If the BSW and SPD combine their seats in the new state parliament, they would win a majority.
Deutsche Welle reported that Social Democrats’ secretary general Kevin Kuhnert told German state media on Monday that talks with BSW were close.
But Qvortrup said both parties wanted to avoid a coalition.
The SPD will want to avoid being associated with the “unacceptable” populist views promoted by the BSW.
He also said that since the BSW currently benefits from its image as an anti-establishment protest party, it would have little incentive to become the ruling party.