Fantasy football sit-and-start advice is always relative and league-specific. Many starts and sits are obvious, so this column will instead focus on fringe options that require serious thought. Good luck with your Week 3 lineups.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
Starting pitcher: Rashid Shahid
Derek Carr is the No. 2 fantasy QB despite New Orleans attempting the fewest passes in the league (40) through the first two weeks. Klint Kubiak’s extreme use of play-action and motion was a cheat code, helping the Saints score 91 points without attempting many passes after halftime. Shahid caught two touchdowns on just nine targets, so he’s sure to take a step back, but we’ll see more volume in more lopsided games going forward.
Shahid leads the NFL by a mile in yards per route and also ranks seventh in average separation scores for teams that use 2-WR sets on a league-best 90% of plays. The Saints also lead the NFL by a wide margin in fantasy points per dropback. With the Eagles allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide outs, I’m putting Shahid in the Top 20 WRs this week (Top 30 for the rest of the season).
I didn’t rate the Saints particularly highly this year, but my preconceptions have been significantly revised.
DeVonta Smith (no AJ Brown) and Chris Olave (a good low-cost purchase candidate) are both top-10 wide receivers in this matchup.
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New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns
Starter: Amari Cooper
Cooper’s slow start to the season could have been improved upon, but he remains Cleveland’s clear WR1. The Browns are one of just five teams with a passing percentage above expectations this year, and the Giants have allowed the fifth-most YPA (8.2) through two games. Cooper has historically been much more productive at home, so keep him in the lineup this week.
Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts
Start: DJ Moore
The Colts started the year with a league-best 175.0 yards rushing per game, but that’s thanks to an NFL-best 93 rushing attempts. With Indianapolis (slightly) favored going into Sunday’s game, the Bears might not gain any rushing yards, and D’Andre Swift has struggled. Moore is a sure thing at WR1 for Chicago, especially with Keenan Allen out and Rome Odunze playing through a sprained MCL. Chicago’s offense has been awful, but Moore is a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Keep him in the lineup this week.
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings
Start: Tank Del
Dell could have easily scored a 67-yard touchdown last week, running routes on 66 of C.J. Stroud’s 77 dropbacks (including a run play). That 86% rate is almost identical to Nico Collins’ 88%. The Texans have used 11 personnel 79% of the time this season with the addition of Stefon Diggs. Houston has leaned more toward passing with Joe Mixon out with an ankle injury, while Collins was limited in practice by hip and foot issues before practicing a full session on Friday. The Vikings have a solid run defense and an underrated offense, so Dell’s targets should increase on Sunday.
With Jordan Addison out with an ankle injury and Justin Jefferson injured (but not listed on the final injury report), Jalen Naylor is likely to be a big fantasy sleeper.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sit: Najee Harris
An injured Justin Herbert, who seems to be a player to judge right at the start of the game, could lead the way in Pittsburgh’s favor, and Harris remains the team’s clear lead back. Still, his snap rate dropped to 48% last week, compared to 45% for a healthier Jalen Warren. Harris ran just six routes (Warren ran 10 routes a game, but didn’t pass as much), so he remains at risk of being robbed of a rushing score by Justin Fields. The Chargers are allowing just 73.5 RB rushing yards per game without a touchdown, the lowest EPA/rush in the league. The Steelers are scoring just 18.75 points in a slow-paced game, so they should consider benching Harris this week.
Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Starter: Ratchad White
White is certainly a risk playing with a groin injury, but he participated in a full practice on Friday and was able to finish last week’s game with the injury. He will continue to lose rushing duties to rookie Bucky Irving, but White has earned 32 of 50 running back touches in the Tampa Bay backfield. The Buccaneers’ passing attack is excellent, and White continues to be a quality receiving back to target. Tampa Bay holds a six-point home favorite against the Broncos, who have an underachieving QB and a defense that allows the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs.
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans
Starting pitcher: Tony Pollard
Pollard had more yards after contact (71) in Week 1 than any game in 2023 and looks to be more explosive as he moves away from tightrope surgery. Tyjay Spears practiced more last week but was sidelined with an ankle injury. Reports say he plans to play but isn’t 100%. The Titans boast an impressive defense and may be underrated after two blocked punts (and some QB blunders) in the first two weeks. With Jordan Love reportedly due to return next week, the game script for Sunday’s game against Malik Willis could be favorable. The Packers are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, so I’ll treat Pollard as a top-15 running back this week.
Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Starting pitcher: Zamir White
White’s snap share increased from 39% in the season opener to 65% last week, and he also thrived in the passing game. The Raiders have been surprisingly pass-heavy this season and struggled against the run, but this is a favorable matchup for White. With Andy Dalton taking over for Bryce Young, the game will be more competitive, but the Raiders are favored at home by 5.5 points. Carolina has allowed the second-most rushing yards (166.5) and fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Volume plays a role, but the Panthers have also allowed the fourth-most EPA/rush with 4.9 yards/carry.
Brock Bowers has graduated from this column and is projected to be a top-three fantasy tight end going forward.
Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks
Starting pitcher: Zach Charbonnet
Charbonnet hasn’t been as good as Kenneth Walker III, but he played a league-high 95% of the snaps and all 19 running back opportunities last week. With Walker questionable for Sunday, Charbonnet will get another chance to play as the lead back in Seattle’s exciting new offense in a favorable home matchup. The Dolphins are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs through two weeks, and with Skylar Thompson taking over at QB for Miami, the game script should be positive.
Jaylen Waddle has 101 total yards and zero scores in Thompson’s three starts in 2022. The over/under for receiving yards on Sunday is 41.5. Waddle is still a top-35 WR this week, but would be a bench candidate if there are other options.
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Starting pitcher: Jameson Williams
Williams ranks in the top five in first-lead targets and expected fantasy points per game. Amon-Ra St. Brown looks likely to play but is returning from a quad injury that kept him out of last week’s game. Jared Goff has struggled, but Detroit should come back big in the red zone. Goff is easily tops among quarterbacks with 13 red zone attempts so far. The Lions are again allowing the highest team total (27.25 points) in a fast-paced matchup against an Arizona defense that is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Sit: Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott and Rico Dowdle have been given equal snaps and playing time through the first two weeks. The 29-year-old Elliott is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry for the second straight year while a Ravens defense is allowing the NFL’s worst yards per carry (2.7) and rushing yards per game (37.0) to running backs. They should aim higher against Baltimore’s potent run defense than an aging back who has only evaded one tackle this year.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
Sit: Matthew Stafford
The Rams are suffering big losses on the offensive line, missing Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and with Los Angeles projected to allow the league’s lowest team point total (18.75 points) against the 49ers, Stafford should be on the fantasy bench this week.
Demarcus Robinson and Jordan Whittington are the big stars in fantasy as the Rams continued to use a heavy 11-man lineup last week despite injuries to their WRs.
With George Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr. out this week, Brandon Aiyuk is the top 5 WR.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons
Starting pitcher: Kyle Pitts
Pitts’ route share dropped from 96% in Week 1 to 73% last week, and his air yard share through two games is just 11%. In hindsight, drafting Pitts over Brock Bowers was clearly a mistake, but Pitts should remain in fantasy lineups this week. He’ll be busier against a Kansas City defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs and will likely be focused on taking away Drake London. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have allowed by far the most fantasy points to tight ends this year.
Pitts has been moving better this season, and Kirk Cousins allayed any concerns with an improved performance in Week 2. Tight end production has declined dramatically across the league, coupled with the number of injuries at the position. All seven of Pitts’ touchdowns so far have come at home, making him a top-seven option this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills
Sit: Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence ranks 31st out of 33 quarterbacks in passing completion percentage above expectation and has a career-worst 29.2% sack rate due to pressure. Lawrence is coming off an NFL-high seven-game losing streak and will also be without Evan Engram. Buffalo has given up the third-most fantasy points to running backs but 11th-fewest to quarterbacks, so bench Lawrence this week.
Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals
Starting pitcher: Zack Moss
Moss’ share in Cincinnati’s backfield expanded even more last week, appearing on 82% of the snaps (third-highest in the league) and 13 of 17 RB opportunities. With the Bengals holding a 7.5-point home favorite, Monday night’s game should play out in their favor. Cincinnati has the highest-tied expected points team total this week (27.25 points) after facing two tough defenses earlier this year. Moss thrived when given 15-plus rushes last season and will be ready to play at full volume on Monday night.
