Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, a nightly newsletter where the NBC News politics team brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign, the White House and Congress.
In today’s edition, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray analyzes the state of the polls with 50 days to go until Election Day, plus how Donald Trump is ignoring unity in his response to the second assassination attempt on him.
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What’s happening with the 2024 election campaign in the next 50 days?
Mark Murray
With 50 days until the 2024 presidential election, Democrats are in the strongest position they’ve had this year due to a change in candidates, but the race remains close.
That’s the main takeaway from a series of polls conducted after Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump’s (possibly only) debate and before Sunday’s assassination attempt on President Trump.
The latest ABC News/Ipsos national poll shows Harris leading 51% to 47% among registered voters (within the poll’s margin of error) and 52% to 46% among likely voters (just outside the margin of error). In this head-to-head matchup, between 1% and 2% said they supported the alternative choice.
A Morning Consult/Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed Harris with a slight lead nationally after the debate.
The Democrats’ improving position is also evident in battleground states, with Harris bringing the Sun Belt back into Democratic favor, but Pennsylvania remains fundamentally unclear.
Plus, Iowa is closer than ever, with a Des Moines Register-MediaCom poll showing Trump leading Iowa voters by just 4 points. But there’s a bit of a caveat: Previous Des Moines Register polls (2016 and 2020) have shown Democrats looking ahead in the state in September and October before eventually hitting rock bottom.
Despite the strong Democratic support, there are still warning signs for Harris, with an ABC News/Ipsos poll showing her lagging behind Trump on the economy and cost of living.
And a pre-debate poll by The New York Times and Siena College found that more voters believe Trump represents change than Harris.
Then there are the memories of poll surprises from 2016 and 2020: A one- or two-point swing toward Trump could wipe out Harris’ vote total. (Of course, a poll surprise could also swing the other way, favoring Harris and her party.)
That’s why this presidential election remains so close and uncertain: Even slight changes in the numbers could alter perceptions of who’s in the lead and who’s lagging behind.
Trump denounces Democrats, ignores unity after second assassination attempt
Jonathan Allen, Matt Dixon, Catherine Doyle
Former President Donald Trump and his allies are stoking political flames after Secret Service units thwarted what the FBI described as the second apparent assassination attempt in less than 10 weeks.
In messages posted across multiple social media platforms on Monday, Trump accused his opponents, Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden, of “taking our politics to a whole new level of hate.” He said their words and actions were the cause of the threats and violence against him, even though they routinely condemn political violence and did so on Sunday.
Billionaire ally Elon Musk of Trump tweeted why “hasn’t anyone even tried to assassinate Biden or Harris?” but he later said the post was a joke and deleted it.
But by midday Monday, it was clear that Trump and his allies had no intention of toning down their fiery rhetoric. In his sudden turn to Biden and Harris, Trump ignored appeals for sympathy and even perfunctory calls for calm and unity.
There are signs of division within the Trump camp over that approach, with some Trump supporters believing the campaign squandered an opportunity to unite after the first assassination attempt. Trump’s growing antipathy toward Harris coincided with a summer slide in polls.
At Mar-a-Lago, where guests included Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Trump received reassuring calls from friends, listened to an audio recording of Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Roe calling Johnson to update him on the incident and made golf-related jokes, according to a person familiar with Trump’s activities.The scare is unlikely to affect Trump’s schedule or campaign plans, according to an adviser who has spoken with Trump since Sunday’s incident.
Top Trump campaign advisers focused on the safety of Trump and his aides in a message sent to staff on Sunday night, while his fundraising team urged donors to give in the aftermath of the incident. Trump on Monday reiterated that he blamed Biden and Harris for being targeted during last week’s debate.
“I’m under attack because of what they’re saying and doing,” he said in an interview with Fox News Digital. “I’m in a position to save the country, and they’re destroying it from the inside.”
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