CNN
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Russian forces have launched a counteroffensive to retake parts of Kursk lost to Ukrainian forces in a surprise cross-border attack, but it has yet to gain momentum.
Ukraine launched an offensive last month, seizing scores of settlements in a move that surprised even Kiev’s allies, but observers warned from the start that Ukraine was unlikely to be able to sustain its gains.
Geolocated video shows Russian forces retaking several villages, but the situation remains fluid: the quality and numbers of Russian troops in the area is unclear, and there is little reliable information on the front lines.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy acknowledged that Russia has launched a counteroffensive and said he would deploy 60,000 to 70,000 troops to the Kursk region, but he said on Friday that Russian forces had “not yet achieved any major successes. Our heroic soldiers are holding on.”
The United States estimates that Russia needs up to 20 brigades, or about 50,000 troops, to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk, but Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Thursday that Russian actions so far have been “minor” and analysts do not see the scale or quality needed to quickly push out the much smaller Ukrainian forces.
The Russian counterattack certainly appears to include some highly skilled forces — geolocated video shows parts of the elite 51st Airborne Regiment taking part in Thursday’s attack — but the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that the Russian forces in Kursk “have very little combat experience.”
Early indications are that Russian forces may try to cut off Ukrainian forces near the town of Korenvo before launching a larger counter-offensive.
A Ukrainian military officer taking part in Operation Kursk told CNN on Friday that Russian forces had seized about two kilometers (1.2 miles) of territory seized by Ukrainian forces last month, an assessment shared by a Russian military blogger. The officer said the operation was being hampered by communication problems.
Video was released showing Russian flags, and coincidentally the flag of the Wagner private military company, flying in the village of Sunakhost, but officers said the situation was stable and that heavy fighting was taking place in another nearby village.
There are also signs that Ukrainian forces are developing new attack routes in another part of Kursk, near the town of Veseroye, possibly as a distraction from Russian forces.
“Ukraine could wage operational-level guerilla warfare in support of an overall strategy of attrition by launching surprise attacks across its lightly defended borders,” said Robert Rhodes of the West Point Institute for Modern Warfare.
Despite intensifying Russian counter-offensives in Kursk and mounting Ukrainian military losses, President Zelenskyy maintains that the Kursk invasion was necessary and beneficial, slowing Russian advances in the eastern part of Donetsk, where the city of Pokrovsk is under immediate threat. Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking full control of four regions of eastern Ukraine that he already partially controls, and most of the fighting in the war is focused in these areas.
Speaking at a panel discussion in Kiev moderated by CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Friday, Zelenskiy said Russia’s artillery advantage in the Pokrovsk region had shrunk from 12:1 to 2.5:1, which he attributed to the success of Operation Kursk.
“The speed (of the Russian military advance) in the Donetsk region was faster than before Operation Kursk, and not only in Donetsk but throughout the whole east,” Zelensky said.
Russian momentum slowed in the first week of September, but not many troops were withdrawn from the fighting in Kursk, although some were redeployed from less-confronted areas along the 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) front. For now, the Kremlin appears to be prioritizing its goal of making progress in Donetsk over recapturing lost Russian territory.
Ukraine cites several reasons for Operation Kursk: to force the redeployment of Russian troops currently on the Ukrainian front line, to provide Ukraine with a foothold in any negotiations, to mock Putin’s “red line,” and to provide a pool of prisoners for exchange (which has already taken place).
Zelenskiy argues that Operation Kursk proves Putin’s warnings about the consequences of escalating tensions were hollow.
Zelensky has now added another justification for the Kursk offensive: It has thwarted Russia’s plans to occupy large swathes of northern Ukraine as a buffer zone and engulf the “regional heartland.”
He told the Kiev committee that “information from our partners” suggested Russia intended to set up a “safe zone” deep inside Ukraine.
The Washington DC think tank ISW said on Friday that the Russian military command may have intended to “significantly expand Ukrainian forces with additional offensive operations along a broader and more continuous front in north-east Ukraine.”
For now, such Russian ambitions are on hold: Russia still enjoys superior firepower and manpower on most of the existing fronts and will likely continue to use the tactic of heavy artillery bombardment followed by infantry advances through destroyed ruins as a way to weaken its opponents.
Ukraine has several immediate priorities, including building and strengthening its eastern defense perimeter and accelerating the formation of new forces. They are developing longer-range strike capabilities to weaken Russian infrastructure such as airfields and fuel depots. And they are demanding greater freedom to use Western precision missiles for strikes deep into Russian territory.
Zelenskyy told President Fareed Zakaria on Friday that Russian guided bombs (FABs) were responsible for 80 percent of the infrastructure destruction and that Ukraine needed to urgently strike the airfields from which the bombs were fired.
The appeal appears to be gaining momentum: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Friday during a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden that “the coming weeks and months could be crucial. It is vital that we support Ukraine in this vital fight for freedom.”
But the Biden administration is wary of the consequences of what the Kremlin sees as an escalation that would directly draw NATO into conflict.
According to Rose of the Institute for Modern Warfare, the Kursk invasion could prompt Ukraine to develop new tools that “could fundamentally change Ukraine’s approach to warfighting.”
“Ukraine cannot use mobile forces to achieve a decisive victory over Russia. Instead, Ukraine can use them to exploit weaknesses, force Russia to overstretch, create confusion, surround Russian forces, and seize Russian equipment.”
The key question, said Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor of national security at the University of New Haven, is how Ukraine, whether it be Kursk or a more serious attack inside Russia or both, will change Putin’s decision-making.
“Will he negotiate? Will it lead to a withdrawal or a pause in Donetsk?”
The Kursk attack may have been successful in persuading President Biden and other Western allies to approve further attacks, Schmidt said, adding: “If additional attacks could continue the war deeper inside Russia, it would have an impact on the Russians and ultimately on Kremlin decision-making.”
It will be defined as a success, but, as the U.S. ultimately did in Iraq, Schmidt says, we need to ask the bigger question: “How is this going to end?”