Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, a nightly newsletter where the NBC News politics team brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign, the White House and Congress.
In today’s edition, we preview tonight’s showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, plus national political reporter Steve Kornacki breaks down why Pennsylvania could be the most important battleground state.
Show notes: Tune in tonight for a special edition of our “From the Politics Desk” newsletter, bringing you a recap and analysis of the presidential debate.
The 90-minute showdown, hosted by ABC News and simulcast on NBC, is scheduled to begin at 9pm ET. Follow all the action on our live blog.
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Seven things to watch out for in tonight’s debate
Ahead of tonight’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump — the first time the candidates meet face-to-face — seven NBC News staffers offer their thoughts on the big picture.
Kristen Welker: How do candidates address their weaknesses?
Tonight, we’ll be looking at how each candidate overcomes their biggest weakness: abortion for Trump, and some key policy shifts for Harris. Continue reading →
Chuck Todd: Who are the candidates talking to?
One thing I’ll be watching is which voters each candidate will directly appeal to. Each side has their theory on what coalition of voters they need to win. It’s striking how both sides have the same agenda, yet so far they seem to be addressing it differently. Continue reading →
Monica Alba: Can Harris create a viral moment?
One of Harris’ most memorable moments from her 2020 debate with then-Vice President Mike Pence was when she repeatedly said “I’m talking” when Pence interrupted her. That seemed like something she had planned, so it will be interesting to see if she has a similar response prepared if Trump interrupts her to speak. However, with her microphone muted, there are additional challenges in terms of how that will play out in real time. Continue reading →
Garrett Haack: Can Trump stick to his election strategy?
The Trump campaign has a clearly defined and well-planned strategy tonight: to frame Harris as “dangerously liberal” and unfit for the presidency. Sound familiar? The challenge for the Trump campaign will be to get Trump, the candidate, to commit to this framework, which he has often seemed uninterested in. Continue reading →
Gabe Gutierrez: What does Harris say about immigration?
One thing to watch is whether Harris will continue her centrist path on immigration and how she will convey a more nuanced position on the border wall. Continue reading →
Jonathan Allen: How does Harris project strength?
Trump always tries to present himself as the strongest of the candidates. He does so verbally and physically. This is an important characteristic for voters. Voters want to know their leaders will protect them. And part of that is the perception of strength. The question is, what will Harris do to counter Trump? Continue reading →
Emma Barnett: Is there a handshake?
One thing to watch at the start of the debate is whether Harris and Trump will shake hands. The traditional handshake at the start of a presidential debate is a way for candidates to set the tone and show respect for each other. But in the past three presidential elections, a handshake wasn’t necessarily guaranteed. Continue reading →
NBC News pre-debate coverage
Why Pennsylvania is so important to both candidates’ paths to victory
Steve Kornacki
It’s fitting that tonight’s debate is taking place in Pennsylvania, because the Keystone State is at the top of the pile when it comes to reaching the 270 electoral votes.
With 19 electoral votes, the state has the most electoral votes of any single state among seven key battleground states, which also include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. To fully offset the impact of a loss in Pennsylvania, each candidate would need to win at least two other battleground states.
There is a way for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to win the presidency without winning Pennsylvania, but the path is narrow. Consider the current state of the race: If all other states, excluding battleground states, vote the same as they did in 2020, Harris would start with 226 electoral votes and Trump with 219.
And when the seven battleground states are taken into account, there are a total of 44 possible state outcome combinations: 21 of those (47.8%) result in Trump winning at least 270 electoral votes, 20 (45.4%) result in Harris winning more than 270 electoral votes, and three (6.8%) result in a tie.
Now, for the sake of this exercise, let’s say that Pennsylvania votes for Harris. That would increase her electoral votes to 245, reducing the number of possible outcomes from the remaining states to 16. Then, of the remaining 16 combinations, there are 10 (62.5%) in which Harris reaches the magic number of 270 votes. Of the remaining combinations, only 6 (37.5%) would give Trump at least 270 votes. In other words, a win in Pennsylvania would clearly give Harris most of her path to the remaining 270 votes.
In other battleground states, the situation is unlikely to change by much. If Harris wins any of the battleground states, here’s what each candidate’s remaining state combinations would look like:
(table)
It’s also worth noting that a 269-269 Electoral College tie would almost certainly result in a Trump presidency. In that case, the House of Representatives would choose the winner, with each state’s delegation getting one vote. Republicans would likely control the majority of the delegation, even if they didn’t control the House.
So adding a tie-breaking combination for Trump only underscores the unique importance of Pennsylvania to Harris. Winning Pennsylvania would give Harris an advantage she doesn’t have in other battleground states. And it means Pennsylvania is just as important to Trump. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, it would deny Harris the clearest path to winning 270 seats.
🗞️ Today’s top news
👀 Government Shutdown Watch: Despite growing opposition from his own party, House Speaker Mike Johnson vowed Wednesday to stay the course and send a government funding package to Congress. Read more →☑️ Fact Check #1: President Trump falsely claims that children are undergoing gender reassignment-related surgeries during school hours. Read more →☑️ Fact Check #2: Local police in Ohio say they have not received any credible reports of immigrants harming pets after J.D. Vance said, “We have people whose pets have been kidnapped and eaten by people who should not be in this country.” Read more →⚖️ Trump’s Justice Department: President Trump has become increasingly clear about his plans to use the Justice Department to prosecute his political opponents if elected. Read more →⚖️ Trump’s Justice Department, continued: The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta profiles Utah Sen. Mike Lee’s transformation from “Never Trumper” to outspoken voice of the MAGA movement and potential future attorney general for the Trump administration. Read more → 🗳️ The ballot fight: The Missouri Supreme Court has ruled that an amendment enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution can appear on the November ballot. Read more → 🗳️ The ballot fight, more: The North Carolina Supreme Court has ordered Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be removed from the state’s ballot, meaning they will have to be reprinted before election officials start mailing them out. Read more → 🛑 In no hurry: Trump’s call to mandate free access to IVF has drawn both skepticism and outright opposition from Republican lawmakers. Read more →
That’s all from the Politics Department. If you have any comments (what you liked, what you didn’t like, etc.), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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