Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk, a nightly newsletter where the NBC News politics team brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the campaign, the White House and Congress.
In today’s edition, Senior Politics Editor Mark Murray examines how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are trying to position themselves as change candidates, plus he previews tomorrow’s final primary election of the year.
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Polls show Trump winning on “change” so far
Mark Murray
It’s not all that surprising that the latest New York Times/Siena College national poll found Donald Trump and Kamala Harris trailing by a narrow margin — after all, most national and battleground state polls place the race within the margin of error.
It’s also not surprising that other polls show Trump leading on the economy and immigration, while Harris is ahead on abortion.
But what’s surprising about this poll is that Trump is winning the “change” argument, which could be crucial in determining the outcome of this showdown between the former president and the sitting vice president.
In the NYT/Siena poll, 25% of voters said Harris would bring about a big change, 15% said she would bring about a small change, while 55% said she would maintain the status quo.
By contrast, 53% of voters think Trump will bring about big changes, 8% think he will bring about little changes, and 34% want to maintain the status quo.
Why is this debate about change important? As my colleague Chuck Todd recently wrote, “The candidate who loses is likely to be the one who most swing voters see in their minds as more ‘like the incumbent.’ And this debate will go a long way toward making that case, depending on how well the candidates portray their opponents as part of the current problem.”
Since President Joe Biden’s withdrawal, much of Harris’s candidacy has been about positioning herself as an agent of change and Trump as the incumbent president.
“In this election, our nation has a rare and fleeting opportunity to move beyond the bitterness, cynicism and divisive conflicts of the past and to forge a new course,” Harris said in her convention speech a month ago.
Compare that to the rhetoric of change that Trump used when Biden was on the campaign trail. “He’s not doing a good job,” Trump said of Biden during a June debate. “He’s done a bad job. And inflation is killing our country. It’s definitely killing us.”
There will be plenty of other polls released on this front, especially after the debate, but at least in this NYT/Siena poll, Trump is winning the argument for change.
What to watch on the final primary day of the year
Adam Wollner, Alexandra Marquez, Adam Edelman
Tomorrow’s flagship political event will, of course, be the first-ever debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but Tuesday also marks the final primary election day of the 2024 election cycle, with voters in New Hampshire, Delaware and Rhode Island casting ballots for lower-tier candidates.
Here are a few notable ones:
Battleground state gubernatorial races: Tuesday’s primary will be one of only two gubernatorial races taking place in presidential battleground states this year (the other is North Carolina).
On the Republican side, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte is the front-runner in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu. Her main opponent is former state Senate President Chuck Morse, who has sought to attack Ayotte for not being loyal enough to President Trump.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is facing off against former health care lobbyist and state Executive Committee member Cinde Warmington in a relatively close race in the polls.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report by Amy Walter rated the general election as “50-50.”
New Hampshire Democratic Party Divided: The Granite State is hosting the most competitive Democratic House primary this year, a race that is dividing the loyalties of key party movers and shakers.
Maggie Goodlander, a former senior Biden administration and Justice Department official, and Collin Van Ostern, a former member of the State Executive Council, are vying for the seat held by Rep. Annie Custer, who is retiring after six terms.
The two sides have been trading increasingly fierce attacks over who is the better defender of reproductive rights and the influence of outside funding, with campaigns and groups pouring a combined $3.5 million into the race.
Goodlander, who is married to White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, has been endorsed by national figures like Hillary Clinton and Emily’s List, while Van Ostern has touted the backing of Custer and other local party officials, though former Gov. John Lynch recently switched his endorsement from Van Ostern to Goodlander, citing “tension and ill will” in the race.
The winner of the primary will face the general election as the leading candidate in the Democratic-leaning 2nd District.
Breaking Barriers in Delaware: State Sen. Sarah McBride is expected to take another step toward her goal of becoming the first transgender person elected to Congress after overwhelmingly winning the Democratic primary for Delaware’s statewide district, raising campaign funds and securing endorsements from key party officials.
If McBride wins the Democratic nomination, as expected, she will be the favorite to win Delaware’s heavily Democratic congressional seat in November. She has already broken some barriers: in 2016, she became the first transgender person to speak at the Democratic National Convention, and in 2021, she became the first transgender person to be elected to the U.S. state senator.
McBride is running for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Tom Carper, currently held by another historic Delaware Democrat, Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who became the first woman and first Black person to represent Delaware in the state legislature in the 2016 election.
She is currently running unopposed for the Democratic Senate nomination and is likely to win handily this fall. Blunt Rochester and Maryland Rep. Angela Alsobrooks are seeking to increase the number of Black women who have served in the Senate, which currently stands at just three.
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