5 things to watch when the Chiefs host the Texans in the divisional round

It’s time. After 18 weeks of rehearsals, which the rest of the league calls the “regular season,” the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) open postseason play against the Houston Texans (10-8) in the AFC Divisional Round. Welcome. The first of four playoff games this weekend will kick off at 3:30 p.m. Saturday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs’ starters will wake up to game day 23 days after the Christmas victory that clinched the postseason bye week. Conversely, the Texans regained confidence with a 32-12 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round.

Four weeks ago, the Chiefs defeated the Texans 27-19 at Arrowhead. The defending Super Bowl champion is resting without any injuries, but Houston has some key players who are questionable.

This makes the Chiefs the clear favorite to win the championship, and the Texans will look to avenge Kansas City’s two postseason losses over the past decade.

Here are five things to watch for in the divisional round opener.

1. Chiefs starting line of attack

On Friday, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that Joe Thuney is expected to start at left tackle against veteran DJ Humphries.

This decision sheds light on what the Chiefs offense will prioritize in the postseason. It’s clear that pass protection is most important. The passing attack was in good rhythm, as it has been all season, with Thuney guarding the blind side. In the three games without Thuney at left guard, the run game was much less efficient.

Weeks 1-14: Rush success rate 46.5% (NFL rank: 1st)

Weeks 15-17: Rush success rate 37% (NFL rank: 25th)

Thuney at left tackle may provide an increased level of pass protection, but left guard Mike Caliendo could still be exposed on passing downs. In the wild-card win, the Texans recorded three sacks. Two of those came from defensive end Denico Autry beating his guard for the win.

2. Acquisition of rushing rights to CJ Stroud

The Texans’ offense centers around primary running back Joe Mixon, who sets the tone on the ground, shortens his sticks, and sets up play-action passing opportunities. He gained 106 yards on 25 carries in the wild-card win, laying the foundation for the Texans’ second most productive game of the season in total yards.

This high-volume match had several implications. Mixon is doubtful to play this week with an ankle injury. Whether he’s available or not, the Chiefs defense will have to turn off the run game in order to mount a pass rush. Texans quarterback CJ Stroud is an excellent run faker, completing 71% of his play-action passes this year.

In Week 16, the Chiefs held Mixon to just 57 rushing yards on 14 attempts. A similar attempt would give the Chiefs pass rush an opportunity to listen and chase Stroud on long second or third downs.

3. Attack the Texans pass protection

The Chiefs’ pass rush is fresh and ready to make a run for the playoffs. Defensive tackle Chris Jones missed Week 17 with a calf injury but is a full participant.

Jones and the headliner will draw attention to the Texans’ offense, which allowed the third-most sacks of any team in the regular season. It’s the Chiefs’ rotational rushers who can make a difference in one-on-one situations. Defensive linemen Tashaun Wharton and Mike Dana can disrupt the inside while the big names attack the pocket from the outside.

The Texans are expected to have starting right guard Shaq Mason back, who hasn’t played since Week 16 with a knee injury. He was not listed on the final injury report. That could move center Juice Scruggs to Mason’s position, strengthening Interior’s offensive line. Scruggs was limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury.

Jones is targeting rookie right tackle Blake Fisher. Jones likes to get over the edge on passing downs, and Fisher has allowed four sacks and six other quarterback hits in six starts at right tackle this season.

4. Reports centered on Nico Collins

When Stroud throws the ball, he will likely look for wide receiver Nico Collins. He’s a big threat, but he’s the only true difference-maker left in Houston’s receiving corps.

The Chiefs had a solid focus on taking Collins in their last matchup, limiting him to just 60 receiving yards on 10 targets. The emphasis was on preventing passes over the middle to Collins, who gained 104 yards and a touchdown on a penetrating route in the wild-card round.

In Week 16, the Chiefs intercepted two passes thrown between his numbers to Collins. It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs can address that with the same emphasis on Saturday without making tight end Dalton Schultz pay. Kansas City finished the regular season with the most receiving yards allowed to a tight end (1,191).

5. Aim for explosive play opportunities

The Chiefs offense is expected to switch into playoff mode, which should mean strong play design and effective schemes that ensure drives end in touchdowns rather than field goals.

This clearly indicates completing more red zone opportunities. The Chiefs ranked 22nd in red zone conversion rate this season. However, the offense can take a step forward by making more explosive plays, both on the run and on the pass.

Over the past two postseasons, running back Isaiah Pacheco has broken the defense 13 times for gains of 10 yards or more.

On the outside, keep an eye on Texans rookie cornerback Kamari Lassiter. Matched up with either Chiefs speed threats Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown. Lassiter is an offensive playmaker, but he may not have the play speed to keep up with either of them down the field.