Welcome to a special pre-holiday edition of From the Politics Desk, our evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News political team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Today we look back at the key stories that defined the year. We’re taking a break for the rest of this week, but we’ll be back in your inbox next Monday with a preview of the dynamics that will shape 2025.
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5 stories that defined 2024
Written by Mark Murray
As the year draws to a close, President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, President-elect Joe Biden leaves office, and a new Congress begins next month, here’s a descending list of the major political stories that shaped 2024. I would like to introduce you.
5. Trump’s easy path to the Republican nomination. It’s important to remember that at the beginning of the 2024 cycle, there was no guarantee that Trump would be the Republican presidential nominee.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was trailing Trump in early polls. Sen. Tim Scott (RS.C.) had some early momentum and funding. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley had the makings of a formidable challenger.
But in the end, Trump won every Republican contest except Vermont and Washington, D.C.
Even after his 2020 defeat, the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, and the party’s disappointing performance in the 2022 midterm elections, more than half of Republican voters still support Trump, the primary forecast Pre-election polls showed Trump’s grip on the Republican Party. To remain the leader of the party.
4. Trump’s legal challenges fizzled. In 2024, campaign activities and courtroom drama were shown on split screen.
Trump was indicted on four separate occasions and ultimately convicted of 34 felonies in the hush money case. They were all supposed to represent one of the defining moments of the election.
But politically, they mainly served only to further rally the Republican base around Mr. Trump. And after Trump was able to delay proceedings and sentencing, and Trump won in November, many of the lawsuits died.
3. The presidential debate that changed everything. Heading into June’s debate, the earliest showdown in a memorable general election, many voters already had concerns about President Joe Biden’s age and fitness to serve another term.
And the debate only confirmed those concerns, as he frequently stumbled over his words and appeared weak on stage.
This performance immediately set off alarm bells for Democrats. But Biden has vowed to remain in the race despite growing calls for his resignation from within his own party. He dropped out after a month.
2. Harris was more popular than Biden (though not significantly more popular than Trump). Immediately after Biden left office, the Democratic Party rallied around Vice President Kamala Harris, who enjoyed a political honeymoon.
In the last NBC News poll before the election, Harris’ favorability rating was 43% positive and 50% negative (-7) compared to Biden’s 35% positive and 52% negative (-17). significantly exceeded.
However, Harris’ numbers were not far off from Trump’s, with 42% positive and 51% negative (-9).
1. Concerns about inflation and the economy destroyed the Democratic Party. It was economics after all, idiot.
Despite strong job creation and inflation cooling to its lowest level since 2021, most U.S. voters were not satisfied with the economy or Mr. Biden’s response.
An NBC News poll found that two-thirds of voters said their family’s income was below the cost of living, and only 25% of voters said Biden’s policies were helping their families (Trump (44% of voters said so when he was president).
And according to NBC News exit polls, 32% of voters said the economy was the most important issue, with Trump leading Harris among those voters 81% to 18%.
Why 2024 was the ultimate “what if” election?
Written by Chuck Todd
Washington is full of holiday traditions, including overlong Congressional negotiations, crowded parties, and inhumane traffic around the National Christmas Tree Lighting Ceremony.
But one of the holiday traditions we look forward to is the Chuck Todd cast’s annual “What If” series of alternate history episodes. Every year, we ask our listeners to share their favorite ideas about the twists and turns in history that might have changed everything about politics.
This year, listeners asked questions about how the 2024 election might play out. They also asked questions about Donald Trump (what if Trump had bought the Buffalo Bills in 2014?), American history (what if George Washington had run for a third term?), and more. We asked questions about Jeb Bush and Ross Perot, the Gulf War and the Cold War…someone even shared smart questions about the Democrats’ disastrous 2020 Iowa caucuses.
Asking these questions doesn’t just scratch an itch, it explores how the certainties of our world could have been radically different, and whether it’s our country, It’s about asking what our history, and what it means about ourselves.
We kick off this year’s series with one of my favorite alternate history experts, Jonathan Martin of Politico, talking about what other twists and turns we’ll see in the 2024 election. You might think that an election year like 2024 would be full of unexpected developments that would satisfy the curiosity of “what if?” — But in a year that could have been a different history, the possibilities are endless.
Listen here →
That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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