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Happy new year!
If there’s one thing we’ve learned anew about politics in 2024, it’s to be careful when making predictions. So today, in our first newsletter of the new year, we are making the following resolutions: Prediction is impossible. But rather, here are the top five Michigan political news stories we’re watching in 2025.
Divided Lansing: Republicans took back the state Legislature this year, continuing two more years of divided government at the state Capitol. Democrats will maintain control of the state Senate, with Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer completing her final two-year term, while Republicans will control the House. This new reality will shape nearly all legislative negotiations in 2025. And let’s not forget that even though Republicans have spent two years on ice, they still have more experience pulling levers than Democrats in recent decades. Like Democrats at the start of the 2023 trifecta, House Republicans have their own priorities, which lead to No. 2 and No. 3 on the list to watch.
Tipped wages: Business groups and Republicans have made efforts to repeal elements of the minimum wage and earn paid sick leave a top priority. They did an effective job of ramping up the pressure campaign to reverse the phased-in minimum wage increases for tipped workers. Their argument is that people who typically include tips as part of their income, such as restaurant workers, become net losers as customers become less generous. Labor wants everyone to sit back and watch how these theories play out. They also put themselves in this position after business groups and Republicans attempted to use Congressional sleight of hand (ahem, “adopt and amend”) to dilute elements of the minimum wage and paid sick leave petition campaigns. I don’t forget that I pushed him into a corner.
Road funding: Whitmer’s hallmark 2018 campaign promise to “fix our bad roads” has yet to be fully realized. In the final weeks of last month’s lame-duck legislative session, both Whitmer and incoming Republican House Speaker Matt Hall said they wanted to find a road-funding solution. (Narrator: It couldn’t have happened). The issue will now serve as a barometer for whether Democrats and Republicans can work together in the new session, as well as affect all other policy negotiations in divided Lansing. The new House Republican majority has already put the proposal on the table, but Republicans are also eyeing the future aspirations of lame-duck governors and have a realpolitik interest in denying Whitmer a victory here. We are also watching closely).
Party Chairman Elections: This year’s new leadership in both the Democratic and Republican parties will bring to light the ideological divide in both coalitions and how those at the bottom see the path forward. . Indeed, we will hear a lot of rhetoric about uniting rather than dividing. But in reality, factions within each party have contradictory ideas about how to win in the next election cycle. We’ll see how much President-elect Trump and Governor Whitmer publicly stake their leadership brands in these leadership contests.
Speaking of vacancies, all elected leaders in Michigan’s executive branch will have their terms set to expire in 2026. While many are wondering what’s next for Whitmer, Attorney General Dana Nessel, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, there are a number of groups eyeing the pending vacancies, and we are. . Candidates should be announced next year. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan has already made headlines by announcing he is leaving the Democratic Party and running as a petition-nominated independent for the state’s top office. We’ll also be watching for announcements from Benson, U.S. Secretary of Transportation (and Michigan transplant) Pete Buttigieg, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and others on the admittedly incomplete list of Democratic gubernatorial candidates. I am doing it. On the Republican side, the long list includes Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, U.S. Representative John James, and Tudor Dixon, who is up for re-election in 2022. Nominations for secretary of state and attorney general are decided by delegates to party conventions, not by primaries. Granted, there are still two years until midterm, but 2025 will see a flurry of soft launches, fundraising, and advocacy.
The latter is a bit of a prediction, but some things never change in politics. Now until 2025!
Are you a political geek?
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-host, It’s Just Politics
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Are there any Michigan political stories you think didn’t make the top 5?! Or let us know what you’d like to see more (less?) in the 2025 newsletter. We look forward to hearing from you anytime. Email us at politics@michiganpublic.org.
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