I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the one thing all eight teams remaining in the NFL playoffs have in common is…a running game. Yes, the divisional round qualifiers featured some great quarterback play. clearly. But digging deeper, efficiency on the ground this season will also be essential.
Over the past decade, the NFL has finally welcomed analytics to encourage you to throw, throw, and throw some more. And it’s smart. Simply put, you can think of it like this: Quarterbacks average 5-9 yards per attempt, while running backs average 3-6 yards per rush.
In the 2024 regular season, 19 of the qualifying running backs averaged less than 4.0 yards per rush, while none of the qualifying quarterbacks averaged less than 6.0 yards per attempt. There were only four players.
But in this renaissance season for NFL running backs, headlined by Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, the most established teams are putting a high priority on moving the football on the ground and doing so effectively. It became.
See how these clubs operated their football overall during the regular season. That’s surprising. (The EPA and success rates shown are for non-garbage times where the probability of winning is between 10% and 90%).
invoice
0.075 (1st place)
47.3% (2nd place)
32 (1st place)
eagles
0.066(2nd time)
42.9% (10th place)
29(T2nd)
ravens
0.047 (3rd)
46.9 (3rd place)
21 (6th place)
commander
0.025 (5th place)
46.1% (6th place)
25 (4th place)
lions
0.022 (6th place)
46.5% (4th place)
29(T2nd)
chiefs
-0.043 (11th place)
46.3% (5th place)
15(T15th)
rams
-0.046 (12th place)
46.0% (7th place)
15(T15th)
texans
-.105 (19th place)
33.1% (32nd place)
15(T15th)
Unbelievable, right? They nearly beat the top of EPA per rush, with the first three clubs, five of the first six clubs, and seven of the top 12 clubs represented here.
And by success rate, defined as plays that gain at least 40% of the yards needed on first down, at least 60% of the yards needed on second down, or 100% of the yards needed on third and fourth downs. – 7 of the top 10 clubs will play in the divisional round.
Now, yes, the Texans are tenacious as hell, and their shoddy offensive line is mostly to blame, as is the lower-level run game. However, individually, Joe Mixon rushed for over 1,100 yards and 12 scores during the regular season, posting an impressive 37 missed tackles on 245 carries. It’s not like Houston lacks a capable presence in the run game.
Also, let’s not forget right away: Houston rushed for 168 yards at 4.9 yards per pop in their opening-day loss to the Chargers.
And then there’s the ever-present threat of the quarterback as a ball carrier.
Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels were first and second in rushing yards (915 and 891) and missed tackles forced (45 and 40) by quarterbacks during the regular season. Jalen Hurts (61), Daniels (55), Josh Allen (51) and Jackson (46) were the top four quarterbacks in first downs on running plays.
Patrick Mahomes has averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry for the sixth consecutive season, and his average of 2.14 yards per rush after contact is the highest of his NFL career.
Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, and CJ Stroud aren’t known for their scrambles, but Stroud averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per rush, nearly all of them. And the Lions and Rams have established themselves as quality, traditional teams.
It’s funny how this all worked out. The district round features quarterbacks who have appeared in seven Super Bowls, won four titles, won three Super Bowl MVPs, are about to win five regular season MVPs, won last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, and this season’s Estimated Offensive Rookie of the Year. In 2017, ground warfare cannot be ignored. This has become an essential piece for all of these clubs, which have two of the NFL’s leading rushers and two feet in Jackson, Daniels, Allen and Hurts.
When the NFL was on the brink of permanently cutting running backs, Barkley, Henry, and other successful games on the ground reminded us of the importance of a quality rushing attack.
We all know that passing is the smartest way to move the football in today’s NFL, but this season the run game will not only survive the analytics revolution, but also demonstrate its value in a passing era. It helped me re-emphasize. These playoffs prove how a versatile and effective rushing attack can complement good quarterback play.