Welcome to the online edition of From the Politics Desk. This evening newsletter brings you the latest reporting and analysis from campaigns, the White House and Capitol Hill from the NBC News politics team.
In today’s issue, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray details how 2024 became the sixth consecutive “transformational” election, with voter dissatisfaction with the direction of the country remaining high. Additionally, we examine how the Senate Republican leadership race is re-emerging as a MAGA proxy contest.
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2024 was another “transformational” election
Written by Mark Murray
The 2024 election meant more than Donald Trump winning the White House, a Republican majority in the Senate, and control of the House of Representatives. (still in the process of gaining control).
They culminated in the nation’s sixth consecutive “transformational” election in which either the White House or at least one Congress switched party control. Let’s take a look at the history of recent presidential elections and midterm election cycles.
2014: Republicans win the Senate2016: Republicans win the White House2018: Democrats win the House2020: Democrats win the White House and Senate2022: Republicans win the House2024: Republicans win the White House and Senate
In fact, we need to go back to the 2012 cycle, when the last “status quo” election did not change parties in the White House or the House or Senate.
presidential table tennis
This trend also exists. Each of the past three presidential elections (Barack Obama, Trump, Joe Biden, and Trump again) has seen a reversal of control in the White House.
This kind of presidential party ping-pong hasn’t been seen since the 1880s and 1890s, given that the 20th and early 21st centuries were marked by multiple terms of either Democratic or Republican presidents.
There are two explanations for all this change. The first is simple math. The country is so politically divided that it only takes tens of thousands of votes, or even just a few seats, in key states to shift the balance of power.
The second and larger explanation is that over the past decade, consistently between 60% and 70% of voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, according to an NBC News poll. is.
With the exception of Obama’s elections in 2008 and 2012, and Trump’s first victory in 2016, an overwhelming majority of voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
Voters saw Trump as an agent of change.
That sentiment will be evident in the 2024 election, with a whopping 73% of voters saying they are angry or dissatisfied with the current situation in the country, according to an NBC News exit poll. Those voters split their support for Trump over Kamala Harris, 62% to 36%.
Moreover, despite statistical evidence of economic growth, a total of 68% of voters in exit polls described the economy as “not very good” or “bad.” Trump won these voters 70% to 28%.
And Trump was seen as a game-changer in the campaign. According to exit polls, 28% of voters said the most important quality for them in a candidate was the ability to bring about “necessary change” (with “good leadership” followed by “good judgment”). “Yes” and “He cares about people like me”).
Trump won voters who wanted such “change” by a 50-point margin, 74% to 24%.
The question headed into January’s inauguration: Could his second term break the cycle of American voters demanding change?
Senate Republican leadership race becomes proxy for MAGA influence under Trump administration
Written by Sahil Kapur, Matt Dixon, Julie Tsilkin
The impending battle within Senate Republicans over who to choose as the next majority leader is an early test of how much power President-elect Donald Trump’s MAGA movement will wield in his second term. It has become.
The three-way battle to replace retiring Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is between Senate Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota and McConnell’s former representative, Sen. John Cornyn. (Texas) and the underdog candidate, Sen. Rick Scott (Florida).
The battle is between long-serving Republican leaders based on the institutionalist views of the Senate, like Mr. Thune and Mr. Cornyn, and the persistence of brave pro-Trump factions who are trying to shatter the old Republican facade as they return to power. It will be a measure of strength.
Scott has sought to claim the latter role, telling NBC News in an interview Monday that he plans to push for “Trump policies” if elected.
“I’ve talked to all my colleagues and they’re clear about what they want and they know we need to change. They want to be treated equally. , I want to be part of the team. They know that I have a great relationship with Mr. Trump and the Speaker of the House, and that I’m a businessman. And I want to get through President Trump’s agenda. I intend to,” Scott said.
Online MAGA influencers have launched an online pressure campaign to undermine current and former Sen. McConnell and boost Mr. Scott ahead of Tuesday’s candidate forum and expected Wednesday’s closed-door election.
However, it is by no means clear whether this campaign will be successful. The Senate is known as a closed body, relatively isolated from populist fervor, with members serving six-year terms and generally operating on a seniority basis. It would be unusual for Mr. Scott to leapfrog two colleagues who have been with him much longer, have built deeper relationships, and each have been paid to pursue their work.
Most importantly, the election will be held by secret ballot. Unlike votes on bills and nominations, and votes for Speaker of the House, votes for Senate leadership are anonymous. That means relationships come first and the online pro-Trump army doesn’t know how its members voted.
Most notably, Trump himself has not expressed an opinion. But he does make one public demand. It says the next Republican leader should support the ability to make “recess appointments,” which are temporary staffing without Senate approval.
Read more →
Trump administration transition monitoring
President Trump has selected Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, chair of the House Republican Conference, to be ambassador to the United Nations. President Trump also selected former New York congressman Lee Zeldin to oversee the Environmental Protection Agency. President Trump has announced that Tom Homan, the former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement who supported his controversial “zero tolerance” policy, will become a “bounding line” in his administration. And Stephen Miller is expected to be named as President Trump’s White House deputy chief of staff for policy.
🗞️ Today’s Top News
🗺 Recalibrating the map: Trump engineered a near-total shift to the right in the district this year in a way he couldn’t in 2016 or 2020, reshaping long-held ideas in both parties about how Americans vote. It blew the story away. Continue reading → 🧹 Sweep: NBC News projected Trump to win Arizona over the weekend, meaning Trump beat Harris in all seven core battleground states. Continue reading → 💸 Final numbers: According to AdImpact, nearly $11 billion was spent on advertising in the 2024 election, a new record and a significant increase from $9 billion in 2020 I did. Continue reading → 👀 Expressing dissatisfaction: Trump’s victory sparked new concerns among his critics that he would come to office seeking retribution. Continue reading → ⚖️ Checks and balances: President Trump’s ambitious policies could face pushback from the Supreme Court, the institution he helped shape so much. Continue reading → 📈 Expectations vs. Reality: As a candidate, President Trump promised to free consumers from high interest rates. But as president, doing so would likely be a lengthy process beyond his control. Read more →
That’s all from the political desk. If you have any feedback, love it or hate it, email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com.
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